40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I like the late 90s cool ENSO period as an analog. Only good news out this way is that it can't really get much worse...we are pretty near rock bottom. Maybe a super nova ACE prevents another all out disaster for the NE.

Just wrapping up my post analysis and I want to credit you for how dead on accurate you were with respect to the forcing not mattering this year. It looked exactly like a Modoki el Nino, pinned near the dateline, but the DM H5 anomaly verification was very similar to a traditional east-based El Nino. I think the extreme +WPO, which you were also all over, was at least partially why.

I hope everyone survives, God willing.

One caveat being that they are naming every subtropical queef, which wasn't the case 30 years ago.

Well, we are going to be more prone to poor stretches due to CC...that said, there will also be some bonanza years, too. The impact of it is more feast/famine...which I am okay with. Even after being hit with 6 conecutive shit snow seasons, it was worth it to see 2014-2015. Hit me with it.

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast. I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

That is one aspect that I nailed...I confidently called BS on that. However, we are beginning to reach the point in the solar cycle that is very favorable for potent PVs. We can maybe squeeze one more season before its up uphill battle for a few years in that respect. I would be pretty suprised if next season isn't somewhat better than last season, but that isn't saying much. The cooler oceans should help a bit.

Operative word being "almost"...I don't think they are entirely useless, but its clear now that you can't just rip and read these analogs from 20+ years ago. Agree.

Top 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons Season TS HU MH ACE 1933 20 11 6 258.57 2005 28 15 7 245.3 1893 12 10 5 231.15 1926 11 8 6 229.56 1995 19 11 5 227.10 2004 15 9 6 226.88 2017 17 10 6 224.88 1950 16 11 6 211.28 1961 12 8 5 188.9 1998 14 10 3 181.76 Individual storms in the Atlantic Boston Snowfall: 1933: 62.7" 2005: 39.9" 1893: 64.0" 1926: 60.3" 1995: 107.6" 2004: 86.6" 2017: 59.9" 1950: 29.7" 1961" 44.7" 1998: 36.4" 59.2" Mean Seasonal Snowfall.

Cool...yea, you do a good job with that. I am going to delve into the post season analysis probably next week...I think my snowfall forecast was decent outside of SNE.

+3.25" 34.25" should do it for the season.

A- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/long-duration-nor-easter-very-well.html Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area.

Long Duration Nor' Easter Very Well Forecast Here is the Final Call for the major, long duration nor' easter that continues to intermittently effect the area even into this weekend. Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area. The only minor issues with the forecast being that the general 4-8" area over southern Vermont would have been better served to reflect 5-10". And the the 5-10" area over southern New Hampshire should have been more widespread, as opposed to being relegated to the higher terrain of the Monadnocks. But others this was a very skillful forecast that was honed a few days out in a what was a uniquely complex and multifaceted storm system. Final Grade: A-

Is there one of these for SNE? I haven't seen BOX post a map....