Typhoon Tip

That would be nice tho... So far we are spits and starts of green up around this N. Middlezex Co region. Lawns have some patches. The forsythia and lilac buds are swollen. Some of the random shrubbery have green-ish tints to the still barren stems. All large species trees are in nuclear hibernation - not buying it... We need the nights to stop with this < 35 bullshit. Given me 40 for fuck sake. You know? And make it stick. 40 to 52 with highs 60 to 70+ with this solar should finally tune up the lawn mowers.

hehhhhh I would encourage using larger hemispheric basis for determining back door potential in this case. I realize the modeling consensus - for now - is putting a Euro like solution as an outlier, but I really argue that a Euro like solution has a ton of support from both that larger synoptic perspective, but also in in the season trend. We've been dealing with a PV anomaly of varying strength.... averaging near 100 or 90 W by 60 N, for months. In all models, Euro combined, that still there out to 300+ hrs. That has been at times mirrored across the conterminous by warm heights S of ~40N. Larger gradient results. The flow between physically/necessarily faster than normal at mid and upper levels. Moving a stream of air faster than normal from Lake Superior -ish to the Maritime of Canada, is a very BD prone mean. That why we've seen a buck shot of BD's ... so it seems. I can't say this for sure, but it "seems" to me that we are above normal incidences therein, relative to date. I don't know if there is any climatology for numbers of BD, per date. So this is largely conjecture on my part. Be whatever that may be, I just base it on anecdotal accounting having suffered the vicissitudes of New England springs for that past 45 years of my life jesus. Anyway, being a bit flowering with rhetoric here but I think there's enough precedence both in spring climo, seasonal trend in play, and synoptic observable construct at large scales, not to be overly confident next week.

I did not use it incorrectly. Those are the straight up global anomalies, using an expanded data set because in scientific principle, denser sample sizes are better - when also stretched out over the longer term, exposes trends that have more confidence. UNLIKE what you are providing in your poorly thought out rebuke, using scanter sizes.

Dude, I put that same link in my post! people just glance over these posts... miss stuff. But definitely knee jerk react. I tell ya, social media engagement is a privilege that about 96% of the population may not be very well suited for

I haven't looked into it. I don't really do a lot reanalysis -related look ups. I've been posting the GIS sfc temperature anomaly product from NASA on or around the 10th for the past several months, just for the muse of the fact that we enjoyed what most perceive ...even if not objectively so, a cold snowy winter, yet that was the exception to the vaster rule. It's been an interesting observational journey.

Yeah, that was announced awhile ago, but it looks like a new solution is being offered. Unsure if that is the entire motive/reason for making the move, but they announced this a month or so ago "...Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) ..."

Today may challenge the diurnal recovery record in the unofficial nerdy Asperger contest...

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below. I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the entire world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm. Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way? I recall seeing March colder locally comparing to the whole country on a lot of days... In fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly". What we experienced may have technically been a warm anomaly, just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify. Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too. Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Quote

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below. I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the whole world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm. Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way? I recall seeing March colder than the whole country - in fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly". What we experience was a warm anomaly, but just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify. hmm 'Sides, I've been quite right about every other month since October...so, meh. That's a decent grade in anticipating these temperature layouts, nonetheless. Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a veritable quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too. Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Graph/data provided by https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Euro ends that 00z run in late January, too ...

Just looking at that ... Euro has a 1030-ish high pressure moving from NW to S of NS overnight into Wed AM. GFS does not have that feature. The difference is resisting and/or creating a warm boundary in the Euro - that look is nastier probably in reality on this side of that type of boundary. The GFS has, by an admittedly narrow precarious room for error, a W east stationary front aligned W-E, situated just N of you, which places us all in with the popular kids, movers and shakers. heh. The Euro did not have this two proper cycles ago so... it could be nuanced and fake. However, given to this year's shenanigans? wouldn't be shocker either.

Interesting... I woulda thunk you'd be SE and putting a sweater on by this hour. Holding in at S wind tho

I frankly would prefer that to being submerged in death by the N. Atlantic. Just by personal preference, but nothing is worse - to me - than Labrador stealing time from spring and/or summer. Either way, I'm willing to bet, the 95/72 circumstance is rarer than you having the back of your balls caressed by glacial remains

My sympathies... yeah I'm sure as this sun continues to lase the environment we're eventually flipping the boundary layer and that'll transport momentum...ie, increase wind, and ruin it. SSE flow seems to be the layout ... rotating slowing into a SW and then WSW tomorrow. During this SSE earlier phases of that ... the cold slab of polar ocean air might meld in and force the vectors to temporarily turn back W.