Typhoon Tip

heh, what was the conversation about ? Oh, I see. yeah

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school. There are a few of these around the world. All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. That said, ... a +3 SD or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference. We should be hot too. But here's the thing ... this event is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference. It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us. It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself.

it'd be funner of this suddenly cold pool insertion aloft were to pass into the region at 18z instead of 06z...

I'm more intrigued by the near or at lowest possible qualitative ranking day on the proverbial misery scale, immediately turning around to a top 10 qualifier on Sunday. 24 hours That's a (probable) under the radar consideration? Like going from 0 to 10 in 24 hours does not typically happen. In the more objective sense, this really is a rare phenomenon, whether it snows or not. Those snow mongers with hardons on May 30th are kind of eye-rolling to be honest. It's like they have no built in limitations or cold/snot bullshit filters in their every day interpretation of reality. Could be July and they be posting "we watch" with thumb up emojis on autopilot. This has looked suspiciously like it could be grapple and probably flip to big aggies in the 1500+ range for awhile. I've heard of snow in the higher hills and mountains pretty late before. Someone should bother to look up occurrence of snow at 2,000 feet+ for all months, and see what the return rate really is. To me this looks like it's enabling some cold cism. But 2 aspects are true. It is a both a cold anomaly, while doing so in a highly unusual way. I think folks are too hung up on getting the cold itself to happen, without noticing that there is a 24 hour pass through a -2 or even -3 SD cold event where both the event entry and exit are extraordinarily steep - big deltas. For me anywho ... that's the fantastic.

Looks like a cold day, too warm for snow below 1500

I was talking to Scott about this yesterday ... there's a non-linear signal for ridge eruption along 90 to 100W coming from the numerical telecon spread (convergent), between the 6th and 10th or so. That's still the case. Since then, we're getting ensemble means burgeoning. This being the 12z EPS mean centered on 270 Notice the UK heat node's migrated to Scandinavia ... This appears to be a complete rotation of the base-line wave#. I suspect the operational more linear indicators may "detect" this physical constructive interference and start emerging a better heat signal. I'm also finding it interesting that the CPC's decided to flip the signal to an 'over-top' heat suggestion in their D8-14. They may be on to this. This signal would be above the climate signal - even though it's funny to zap Weatherwiz... I don't mean to devalue the necessity to do that -

https://phys.org/news/2026-05-hot-years.html It addresses the 'surge' nature in which the ongoing GW recency has been observed. It doesn't specifically attempt to nail down why-for that behavior; altho, it does attempt to implicate a contributing faster warming Arctic, citing less ice and snow and pan-dimensional Albedo as causal ... but that's not in depth enough. The global surging phenomenon is (or should be) of particular import. Namely, the uncertainty. There are no predictive tools, man or machine, anticipating when and to what magnitude. This may seem almost Onion obvious, but ... not knowing an entire planetary system is about to move the equivalent energy of every atomic weapon, is bad. And is strangely poetic, wouldn't you agree? Such was the mysterious lurch of late February thru early May, 2023. Yes ... prior to either the onset of +ENSO, but even so... vastly too soon to be sufficiently lag correlated in the first place. I'm still not fully convinced that the switch from negative to positive mode of the ENSO that spring, was causal in the global temperature surge, because of those incongruencies in specific timing - yet I continue to encounter narratives that the El Nino was instrumental. Wrong. Be that whatever it may be ... we are in the similar window now. With the expected onset of +ENSO, "super" this and that, notwithstanding, so it is a testable moment in history. .

We've shared dialogue about it all day ... what

Is there a product out there that can sort of calculate what the ambient pressure, outside of cyclone, is ? Like not every low pressure is as impressively deep as it may look in scalar, because the surrounding medium isn't appreciably high. And vice versa. Case in point, the Feb 1978 blizzard "only" bottomed out at 992 or something - pedestrian by nor'easter cyclone depth climatology. But the 75mph sustained Boston Light winds pushing the surf into 30' seismic rollers would tend to argue that pressure well was somehow systemically deeper than 992, because the surrounding was elevated perhaps. Devil's in the deltas I'm wondering for the 1003 mb low and the 50 mph winds in a short duration ( like 4 hour window) nor'easter ...

So earlier I intimated I suspected this thing this weekend might try to charlie brown the cold dweebs and their private/secret thinking that it's totally okay to snow at this time of year ... , by normalizing the metrics some as we move into the shorter range. In other words, it should correct to just insulting to us normal folk - While it is the NAM, and therefore ... probably not altogether very useful or trustworthy at this range, it is still showing some normalization in this 12z run... Left is the 00z 84 hour fantasy, the right in the 12z 72 hour ( same time), 12z Sat Clearly the right/more recent version is stepping off the cold enthusiast enabling throttle. Altho it's odd that the NAM pretty obviously dampens cyclogen thermodynamics and mechanics, while still making the low deeper...

78 warmer than yesterday/hr by a couple clicks. Yesterday was 83... today should be 86 or 87. The clouds might offset the typical MOS too cold by 2 and make it look right this time. yay

It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later. I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st

That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.