Typhoon Tip

hahahaha.... damn! thought I got one past you. That part of it's a chode tug just cause I was being a dick, but I do see similarities among these years whether we/you/I want to see it or admit or not - and... I don't claim that it is CC outright. I am open to that being the case but more seriously, there was a speed/velocity saturation in the flow every one of these years that is/was/still is near the top of the geophysical ceiling during winter core. There's a reason all these air-land airline speed records have been set in the last 10 to 15 years, for those intercontinental flights over the N Pac and Atlantic. It's because they're traveling in the slip stream of mega jets, where they have to open the throttle and fly very fast to maintain lift ... which requires near sonic speeds relative to the stationary E... It's 200 kt 300 mb wind flow ... you gotta move the 60 ton vehicle at 600 mph to maintain the air-relative 500 whatever mph it is they need to stay fuel efficient ...etc. So regardless of the reason ( CC or the CD ) ... It's probably going to be observable in January ...again. It's based upon persistence for now.

ooh ooh I can help. Image a rope, and your snapping one end ... you'll see a wave move along the rope? that is the linear function/wave propagation. Now imagine that there are multiple wave functions propagating at once. You might have seen this experience in science... but what happens is the waves organize into a patterns that so long as the input force is proximal to steady, will then enter what is called 'resonance' - that resonance is a predictable standing wave event. What we are seeing in the Pacific northern arc out there is a remarkable case of resonance occurring at very large synoptic scale... the NAO that downs stream of that as a secondary resonance node on the "rope".

Agreed. I added this sentiment to that missive, " It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling. " But also, the Pacific --> N. America total wave signature is what creates the NAO btw. Not you per se, but folks may save some frustration if they finally get their minds wrapped around that. It's the mechanics downstream from the PNA domains idiosyncratic wave distribution. One of the reasons it's so difficult for the models is because it's largely driven to emergence through non-linear function - those that are applying forcing in a transitive interference, which are not visible. Just sayn'

Pistol to head? this January will be very close to: ...quite specific to that range, too.

right, not an SSW

it wasn't a canonical SSW behavior in the sense that there was no propagation for one. But, we had a near or at historic solar storm around then. I'm entertaining the possibility that the models were caught off guard by the solar flux arriving around the time they were modeling an intrusion event, and irradiating/breaking up crucial ozone densities - ozone is an important thermal conductor in the physics. The other aspect ...as I pointed this out at the time, it was not very clear in the modeling whether it was emerging above 50hPa level. It appeared to actually to be a punch up from the below from the topospheric bulge associated with the ( at the time) still being modeled N. Pacific height anomaly - they certainly did a good job with that ... just fantastically persistent feature. It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling. I think there was some interpretation misuse going on at the time et al.

It's pathway to getting to this scalar layout is suspect tho. just sayn'

Whaaaa cluttering up a thread that’s 244 pages long? how the hell can you tell LOL

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-climate-misinformation-national-threat-canada.html

Will, it's a sneaky bomb potential .... concealed in the indexes.

Low probability/non-zero potential but this should monitored, neverthelesss ...

26.5th coming S of 12z fwiw-

You know the way that ridge bulges in the midwest like that and this thing comes down out of the northwest along the 540… starting as a zygote plume in N IL then strengthening E before diving southeast … it looks like an MCS in the summertime riding the thermodynamic gradient in this NAM solution

I'm testing the AI cluster with this 23rd thing ... Firstly, they're remarkably similar - which I find interesting, actually. It makes more questions for me. How is AI GFS and AI Euro, non-dispersive relative to each other? that's a weirdness. I still don't know more precisely how these models are constructed. What is actually processing. Until I do, it's voodoo ... Are they just probing the 'cloud' ( ugly pun) for the mean of a billion minds of both machine and man? If that's the case, of course they are always more encouraging for snow nearing Xmas, because it's tapping into the hopes and dreams of the latter. Heh. Or are they processing actual fluid and thermodynamic equations in the propagating of wave mechanics through a matrix. Something in between? I tried researching this question but I'm hit with a typical smoke-screen of marketing and promotional speech - or at least too much and losing patients.. Comes off a bit Wizard Of Ozian and the "don't pay attention to the man behind the curtain". Typical of the web though. The entire degenerative irony of the greatest invention of modern industry is that it's usefulness is run down by capital interest and greed. It's like just answer the fuckin question! no, you're not getting any money you petty f*n c*ts I digress. Merry Xmas. LOL