Typhoon Tip

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/21/us/deaths-disappearances-scientists-investigation ..they've hit the Climatology community, too, if there weren't so many of them.

Came back 20 deg so far... 24 --> 44 Pretty much 0 discernible wind ...any movement out there is closer to untouched and unknowable. With that purity of the clear sky and now late summer sun intensity, that's about as close to a 10/10 nape factor as can be found.

Yeah ... in so far as this, I was not intending to argue that. Ha. No I'm just changing the subject a bit that we've appeared to slip back into this bias of cooler loading into SE Canada and NE/CONUS, not dissimilar to what plagued the the winter months. I provided those monthly means ( C/O NASA) around the 10th of every succeeding new month over winter and into early spring. Every month with the possible exception of March ( though arguable...), demoed we were cooler, either relative to local climatology when not relative to the planet as a whole. That annoys me, full disclosure. For a couple of reasons. One being that I was afraid of a spring that forcibly jams cold shit down our throats and being powerless to stop it haha. I'm grappling with how much of this is "normal" though to be fair. The other reason is that CC-sociological stuff... which is a murky imperfect science of human oblivion that I'll leave alone for now. I've shown no pause or shyness in extolling my extra special hatred for April over the years, despite my love for "springing" away from winter - but therein is the problem. Seldom does this geography experience that kind of transition. I am definitely done with winter ( usually...) by February 15th every year, so let's big brother seasonal change while mother nature's not looking! Anyway, looking forward at guidance for the next ...actually out to the end of the 360s, if that really characterizes our verification we will likely be back in that cold bias region..

That's frost. Open fields and car tops typically begin frosting at 36, particularly on nights with high radiative proficiency.

Not as long; not as deep - or will be. So it appears

It seems about hours 72 to 96 removes the -NAO ridging in the ensemble means... but, maintains the behavior of the flow across the eastern mid latitude continent - as though it is still there. The models are "sensing" some non-linear mechanics for -NAO, powerful enough to shape the linear ( observable wave distribution ) handling whether the block is there or not. One consequence, the Euro and CMC 00z solutions. Hopefully they are wrong. Because they're attempting the dreaded rock-bottom pattern lock in using that. Particularly the CMC .. long about 156 hrs it takes tiny meso-beta scaled S/W and uses it to carve out a 3 contoured close low and when you loop it almost seems like a spontaneous manifestation with no real input. Black hole just opens up in the perfect position to impose fantastic torture. Hyperbole aside, that's that non-linearity being exposed. But it doesn't have to be right because it's beyond 120 hours. Otherwise, move to 2nd residence and don't come back until some time deep into May

Hard freezes in a warming world

It's fallen right back into that "targeted" cold anomaly that festered the entire winter ... enabling straw men deniers two sheets away from being as smart as flat Earthers.

Looks like there's a secondary cold front according to WPC's most recent surface analysis. Some of this might be a response to that pressure perturbation coming thru. But it is on the move... looping vis it probably doesn't last the whole daylight. Along this end of Rt 2 we're holding out with sun for the moment. Yeah, you'll get 15 minutes before sunset hahaha.

mm... N-E of an approximate Albany - Boston line did not register "widespread 80s and 90s" last week. Along that line did observe a couple of afternoons where it crept in but it would shunt... collapsing back into CT. By and large it was short of widespread for a large chunk of the Northeast US. Heh, I realize there is no world NE of the Tristate to Philli region, but just in deference to envious eyes made to watch warm air from their cold predicament, widespread 80s and 90s in the Northeast US is a just a wee bit of a spin.

Nice to be contending with this while relative to date and history we are presently "enjoying" the 2nd or 3rd warmest Earth since the invention of thermometers ...

Not a bad bounce back here this monring.. 44 sucks, but it was 28 at dawn. Helluva lot better. I'm sure we're hitting the bounce ceiling soon... Suppose we can keep the wind from kissing napes too much, the power of that sun, Aug 20 equiv for shits and gigs ... 101 in window shut parked car, 46 outside the window? Just imagine asking any given August 20 to be held < 50. We may start destructing by diurnal cu, too

After today and tomorrow the patterning looks like 10 days ( to start ...) of persistent nondescript neutral Ts... with 'tendencies' along the way for BN. It's just that typical model regression in mid spring tends to oversell cold looks in the mids and extended ranges. Then combining that bias with "some kinda" coefficient CC forcing from the background state, together probably helps to suspend closer to neutral. It's just harder to sustain below normal then it used to be decades ago. The -NAO is looking pretty weak in the operational runs... tending to limit the physical manifestation of that index state by being both inconsistent with the magnitude of actual ridging up there, but also ranging placement between the western and eastern limb. Which matters... east would allow warmer hgts to creep farther N over the mid latitude continent. I.e., maybe not as bad for warm enthusiasts here after all. West variant, however, during a flaccid slackening gradient would probably cut off lows near Cape Cod and really ratchet up the Count Rugen torture. That said, there's still something of it there. Because the behavior of transits; having trouble getting N of our latitude is -NAO suggestive. Some amount of suppression is modeled nonetheless.

probably trying to resolve the anachronistic circumstance of nearing solar max blazar energy dumping into meta-physically imposed January cold hell

well, I might otherwise be taken aback by the fact that we're going below freezing tomorrow night under a full on January thermal sounding structure ... buuuut, welcome to the biggest piece of shit geographical spring region on planet Earth - i.e., not surprising