Typhoon Tip

You forgot the "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too.

Worth it to mention... WV surplus/transport anomalies available in the general canvas. This would be due to both the increases that are CC attributed, whilst +ENSO and probable STJ input ... working on top of one another. Sounds like a QPF synergy monster if you ask me. Where it rains and/or snows it does with least excuse to do so and heavily. Relatively weaker profiled synoptic disturbances over-achieving.

yet here we are out to the 25th and we're bouncing around 17

heh... ENSO correlations for 300 years do too - but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc.

Is this the GFS AI ...or ?

I've noticed it in Augusts ... just sayn'

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card. Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range. We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends. Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea... It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it. Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure. This is sort of an opposite thing. Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter. LOL maybe, we'll see on the latter. anyway, proceed with caution -

You should ... ... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind. Sometimes not so much, true. An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup. But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks; then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches. 'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas. 'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month... Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month... Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks. Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season. Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in. Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable... Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ... - the table sets while no one's looking. I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding. This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb. But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel. There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this, ...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence. Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal. Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region. We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect. We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show. If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!), we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.

Left field shout in ... ... looked at some 30 NWS tweener sites on their interactive product and found just one site at 57, which is closely the climatological low for the date for the BDL-FIT-ASH arc mean, otherwise ...most were 60 to 63. Above average.