Typhoon Tip

I don't trust these AI's "know" ( pun intended ) what they're doing. Looking at their 500 mb isohypses progressions through the periods they smack to me of the primitive MRF of the mid 1980s. It could also just be a coincidence, but I'm inclined to wonder nonetheless if that is why they are always optimistic/more so than their operational colleagues. It's like they are learning ... but they are just in the 1980s middle school, where as the operational runs today are ... freshmen in college say. Lot of metaphor packed into all that but you get my gist -

man... this all happened when that relay took place overnight with the GFS. this is also about when it finally pulled the plug on this event today, too ... right when I observed the ballast of the S/W mechanics were over land i'm growing more and more convinced that the data assimilation is getting caught with its pants down. i'm also beginning to suspect we are exposing an explanation for the mysterious mid range amplitude loss that seems to be pretty dependable - altho i see that in other guidance, too.

I don't think that stuff is true guys... The GFS dropped the 15/16 system, but then redrew it up where it is happening now. The Euro did the same thing; they just did this at different times. I realize there's some fun frustration context going on... but the problem is any model trying to perform in this type of pattern constraint.

Suggest watching the 24th thru the 30th for a significant event emergence in future guidance - weighted later. Unfortunately, ...waiting is not a virtue that comes easy to the beleaguered but you have no choice. I think anything prior to that last week is blind buckshot.

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way. The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead. Those are convective induced

No argument ... 12z has a low probability recovery chance. Tho it grows more and more difficult to imagine something working out right given the persistent failure quota, no doubt. Realistically, the odds probably don't favor so we're flipping weighted coins

Yeah, I agree that a full strike with a moderate event ( this has a lower ceiling btw - unless something bizarre suddenly shows up that had zero grid presentation before hand.. non-zero chance I guess) has not been removed from the spectrum of outcomes. However, a complete whiff cannot be ruled out just the same. This needs to be < 72 ...maybe 84 hours I feel, because all the governing kinematics will be in the digestive system of the continental synoptic body, and we'll see what it poops out for us at that time.

Later yesterday I mentioned that this system seemed to have better odds to succeed based largely on a modeling motif to correct system W-N moving through the middle ranges this season. This may buck that trend if indeed the wave mechanics now tipping over Alaska and the NW Territories continues to be attenuated. This really seems to be a situation that's almost entirely sensitive to how much is conserved of that S/W(s) spacing as it coalesces and dives S through the NP moving forward... We can almost break all this down to tax arithmetic as a metaphor... the fast flow is like a flat tax, and it will take/absorb the same amount, either way. Whatever's left as it hits the SE ... etc

Recency bias ... whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency - As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually. Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way, hahaha. But at least this crap is happening at D4 and not 24 hours before. That's what it meant to be 1980s ... Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6. That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models. This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

00z GFS vitals are between the 18 and 12

Fwiw, the GEFs has bodily moved west, by several grid points actually. Even has a fair number of middling depth members straddling the BM. 12z left, 18 right Probably should also add... sense of this is a middle ranged cyclone ... a correcting west track has possibility, but the sub 980 idea of the GFS probably doesn't pass the middle range amplitude dimming aspect.

Yeah, wind and snow for a dome team like Houston...

the AIGFS did not actually adjust NW from what I'm seeing. It was just a little stronger in the cyclonic envelope and by virtue of that slight increase ... expanded by a small margin around all quadrants. This may have given the allusion to a NW adjustment. I guess tho that's kind of quibbling ... I mean, if it ended up at 978 mb, it will have expanded it's impact radius that much more and I don't think it really matters sensibly - if you're in, you're in

A reason I think you'll have a better chance with this thread, Ray ...is the error trends as of late considering all guidance. If that correction recurs, we're in business on this one. This event tomorrow into Friday morning, upstate NY up the ST L S was actually the original system that even the Euro was impressive for several ( not a couple ) cycles about 4 or so days ago... The Euro did not really do terribly better than the GFS - I don't know if folks are aware that the system in U NY is in fact the 15/16 cyclone space. Anyway, all these guidance were not wrong about the storm 'existing' - as we discussed earlier. The recognition of the pattern amplitude by many of us was actually spot on. Where the system takes place is the devil in this case, but ... it was actually en masse a reposition to the current strike region as outline above. It seems that's been a leitmotif this season from my recall where systems have been correcting west. While certainly true that we must consider every situation uniquely, there's certainly also wisdom in noticing whether the circumstances have changed appreciably so - if not... it's reasonable to assume that this Euro track will correct west in time. Having said all that ... we still are dealing with wave harmonics issues in lacking. The neg interference in the general circulation circumstance is only allowing narrow windows for amplitude at the cyclone/S/W scales. But as this one today up N of ALB is showing, they're still occurring nonetheless. We have a shot in this case...