Typhoon Tip

pretty close... It was more like a, "besides ... befitting the La Nina" not hurting the idea. It's possible that it was entirely La Nina driven, and it was just a 3 or 4 month window where the distractions let it alone. interesting. You know (change the subject) I did this cursory research into warm springs long ago. I found that some statistical significance between late stage La Nina's and big spring warmth. I didn't look at it regionally, just at a N/A continental scale. 1976 April heat was truly awesome particularly in NE. MA/S NH and S ME... It was 96 with upper 80s and low 90s for three days before and prior one week's worth. Dr Colby and I dorked it out for an hour and went through the rest of the spring's data recordings from the Lab's station. We were xpecting to happen upon a tongue-n-cheeker snow event in early May that year but nope. It stayed in the glorious 70s to 80s right through. So in 1998 we were coming off a super +ENSO and we had the 89/90/91 heat burst, Mar 29/30/31... So it's not a lock out correlation or anything either. But, that was a single pattern event - the former effort was more seasonal in time scale. I did find some correlation there. Out of deference to no believing the index methods are completely obsolete ( probably 2070s lol) last fall, I went ahead and thought shit... after the early loading, lets go 2012 on their asses. So I rib-poked a "flowery February" ... was never confident though.

heh. Just in an op ed mood this morning Yeah, so I wouldn't tell anyone not to try. That's would be, in a word, stupid. One has to try... for one, if the process brings them joy, you only live once. Rock on. Plus, NOT trying at all? That would greatly reduce one's success rate in discovery, huh. LOL. The deeper take away there is that the foundations upon which long range prognostics were always based upon are clearly cracked. Perhaps crumbling... There has to be more in the way of original insight. As I mentioned, a fall back approach has been working rather well ... ish. Trying to asses the continuation vs collapse of 6-month persistence. You know, I almost nailed this winter. I fucked up the February thing but... my feelings were not hurt by that. I was much more confident in early cold/blocking, and I didn't use anything other than noticing aspect of late summer and autumn and pushing those forward. None of which was ENSO this or snow in the arctic that, or solar cycles ...or blah blah-blah. Is it reproducible? not saying that either. As far as the ego stuff... I've just had to throw hands. Years and years ago, when I started seeing ENSO's statistically decoupling around the world, I was ignored. But then some independent whatever comes up with RONI; yet no credit is conferred. So you know ... it's like fuggit thing. Don't care anymore. We can know, and no one knows we know and that's just the way it goes. You are either chosen, or be loudly unspoken. Whatever god runs this show can go fuck itself. LOL

Faux -PDO's due to relative +PDO anomalies this RONI that Overall Telecon instability --> chaos/reduction in longer term predictive skill, coherent and undeniable It's a bit of a philosophical reasoning but there appears to be a realism emerging where traditional indexes are becoming gradually less usable. Ultimately perhaps meaningless as the climate air, land, sea, or combinatory thereof, proves to be steeply in delta - and it appears to be closely correlated. The greater the d(C) in time, the > the index-correlation collapse... manifested as variability that cannot be predetermined based upon known sciences. Definitely not modeling...jesus. From all that, it's getting harder, even for the harder headed types, to ignore. Stop wasting our time using them to predict seasonal modes of behavior. For none of that former starkly realistic plight lends to success being more than a blind squirrel upon a nut. We can kick and scream and get mad at the messenger here, or ... we can demonstrate a matured higher reasoning capacity that seeks truth, while being disconnected from ego. There may be more use in the permuted versions... like RONI and so forth. However, the boundaries of even those are changing. That makes them suss unfortunately. Personally I'm seeing ... perhaps "sensing" is a better word, more success in just using large hemispheric 6-monthly trends, and then getting a sense of their likeliness to continuing, or decay, based upon those total/orbital observations. It's been cold despite warm this or cold that (vice versa anomalistic result): any reason that should stop? Nope. Continue. Yup, new paradigm, break out the dice. Ha, as a wild digression ... this sort of reminds me of that new Quantum Field idea about aspects of deeper sentience at that fundamental layer where precedes the present mindful awareness, are not being constrained by time; when we have "gut feelings", those are the future transmitting backward. It's not a bad idea when matching that with anecdotal. Like someone falls off a ladder and bonks their head. As they come around they have a memory of actually finishing their descent down the latter, without it being assisted by 9.8 m/s2. There's a version of the future transmitting back, but it gets interceded along the way... I get this gut feelings that the indexes as originally conceived out of a statistic framework, won't work in the future generations - probably, this is beginning now, too. They'll be extinct eventually.

It's amazing to wonder what this global ATM 2-meter T curve would look like if SE Canada and NE's numbers were removed from the average -

Seems they're fighting seasonal change, huh I've seen something like this every spring around this time frankly going back years. It would be an interesting discussion to have with the modelers at NCEP...but it seems as though their physics are not integrating for steadily increasing heat input into the system. They just take whatever they see in the initialization, and then out in time they end up too cold So by the time we get to mid April the sun is like mid August. Hot as hell on sunny days. Sometime between now and 2.5 weeks .. I mean give it up. Only once or twice do I recall an air mass cold enough to offset that, way back prior to 2000 ... and these patterns in the current model depictions ain't it.

You can even see it doing it over the top of Kevin's house in CT... It'll probably dry out some but just sayn' a-nnoying

It's the na na na-na na cloud line affect

We're getting that standing wave cloud production that Brian was complaining about the other day, down here. It happens more frequently up there than down here, but I've seen this before... It takes a conditionally unstable layer around 800 mb running down with the flow, and as it bumps up and over the terrain there is back-building schmootz. Loop vis sat, it looks like it's emerging out of seam. And summarily, optimistic forecasts bust. great

You know I wonder if there's like a "green up line" I think there's something like that with trees. I could swear I've seen it, the leaf out line or something. But not sure that's the same. That pithier verdancy of spring where the fields are delicious with it like a 5-star eatery's salad .. I mean there comes a time every spring whence that is noticeable and it's not the same as a couple of fluke early warm days driving a greener patch here and there. Talkin' full commitment, and it does tend to flash over the landscape across an instra-weekly time scale - days in other words. Not sure when the first (average) time that is - I suspect that season's climate bias plays a role. It's nostalgic. I've seen pre leaf out but budding trees, with perhaps Norway maples in flower - those give off one of the best spring aromas there is outside of Lilacs. That green complexion underneath paints the fields, festooned with yellow dots from dandy lion. This setting comes on prior to the trees. Spring fever afternoon if it's 72. Four days later there's leafs cracking out

Yeah I like that, "...need the freeze risk behind us" I've used that in the past internal monologues while suffering yester-year doinks by the NE shit show spring climate. Don't be fooled by that random 75er like 10 days ago... they're only occuring along the space time continuum to prove there is a god, and he/she ( probably Lucy) is complete asshole.

I dunno about early spring around here anyway... Not speaking for back-town states everywhere, but this part of N-central MA still looks like the Middle East (forced) conflict musta went ahead and dominoed the world into a nuclear exchange. Lawns and fields are death-vomit beige. Not even the forsythia buds are swelling. nothing - It does however hurt your hands to hold onto cold steering wheels on the way to work - so ...I dunno, is that an early spring? It may look early by some scalar recognition/in isolation over who-knows-what one is using, like a few verified daily highs/low temperatures? not good enough. If so, that utterly fails in relativity to every other metric that really matters in making the distinction in a fair and objective way. Fwiw - April 1st. It's been that way in the guidance for over 10 days worth of aggregate head bang to wall persistence. The thickness tapestry alleviates "blue"/sub 540s by a bigger percentage than has been the case yet this early transition season, thus far. That combined with post March 21 and a back ground CC aspect ( that has for some reason been hell bent on being fudge packed into the SW so hard and violating that one else has a fuckin clue we are still a part of ...) may have a chance to start busting machine guidance too cold with milder times and pushing real green up. But Scott's right ... there's a probably at least a transient warm afternoon or two prior to that in the the meantime. Those are like bleeds through the dam bulge out ahead of time, hints that trigger the old timer to toke his pipe while squinting, "I reckin the change she's a-comin"

Why are you buckin' for that to be the case, Scott. LOL I dunno... I've seen this before in spring when the season's on the death bed. Like the "lucid interval" when out of nowhere the patient bounces back, talkative and smiling sending nurses and relatives scrambling but it ends up fake and they're dead in a couple hours anyway. Heh..just wanted to make a disturbing metaphor. No but I have seen this in spring where there's a regression, and it tends also happen during a warmer outlook, too. But the warm up comes anyway. interesting. We'll see which way this one goes

Something like this is happening ( or may be ) all over the planet. I'm wondering if/when the 2023 air-sea temperature burst might redux. This probably has to be verified by more than one source ( Climate Reanalyzer ) yet, but according to below it's at historic high relative to date, already. That curve it just crossed is 2024, 2023 just beneath.

Yeah I've been keenly on this every day for the past month as we're globally getting set sail into this next ultimately unknown +ENSO. The warm/NINO phase is all but certain, but ...the amplitude and so forth, tbd. The last time we were in switch from a NINA to NINO, there was a global temperature surge, air and sea, like never before observed since humanity first picked up the first burning stick, wondered, and the results of that wondering ultimately dooming their fate ( whole 'nother dystopian story). It's not clear that the NINA/NINO switch was causal in the global multi-metric temperature surge in 2023; it in fact preceded the on set of the NINO. However, intuitively ...having a warm tropical anomaly concurrent certainly is not helping to offset a warming world, incrementally. This is concerning, this hot water curve above. +.58C as of that last tick ( to be verified but seldom do these not - ) is a mere .1 < than the 2024 historic max, which took place there nearing the end of April. This sets off a chain of reasoning for me... Most of those curves, in fact all of them at a glance with the exception of last year ... were already beginning to fall by now, the Ides of March. Last year, however, was the first in which that was not the case. The SSTs gained yet for another month - doing so during a NINA, no less?! The Earth had for the first time in decades, gained when the climatology inference clearly argued(s) it should have been falling. I don't believe that it trivial, albeit easily overlooked. More on that in the bottom paragraph. When looking at the recent month(s) of this year, and combining with those aspect... there's no sense there that this curve isn't going to set a new record. We are preset at an elevated state, with yet an impending warm phase of the ENSO ...? Just beginning to register, and we only have .1 to spare. It's my opinion that we are not done with the 2023 burst. I sense that was a first step during what could turn into a much more important total geological threshold/move. Last years odd global SST gains is an insidious way of signaling we are still in burst-prone' state ... Possible the same burst, but to our perception moving too slowly to notice. "Burst" in geologic time is misleading. It is going to be difficult to see to a sentience ( us ) whose perception of time moves too swiftly?

these new NAM numbers would have us pushing 70 on Thursday. sometimes that happens this time of year… We’re waiting in misery like it’s never going to end and then all of a sudden it’s right there and you’re like where the hell did that come from? It’ll get cold again, of course, but I think still looks like April 1 is kind of a step out date graduating to a new paradigm along a seasonal change