Typhoon Tip

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high. Fuck yeah!

The extended operational GFS and Can are trying to go hot but ... mm, the indices say no.

heh...some afterthoughts.. It's primarily used in experimenting theorems - create a model based upon a theory that describes how whatever in nature being observed, works. Then, feed it inputs, test the output for significance (chi test) against the other result that occurred naturally. If the output ( as it goes...) lands on .05, and in particular, there was pig ton of data going into the the test ( sample size) then one's theory that describes the system is robust. Blah blah blah, but what is fascinating about the the last 20 years of human folly we lovingly refer to as "civility" ... arguably the more advanced technologically we are getting, "civility" as a qualitative distinction is eroding in proportion... That's A. B, the reason for that is that ( perhaps conjecture) is the Law of Lessening Returns ...together with perhaps the natural Law of Least Physical Action. Together, human kind expresses their background forcing via having spontaneously created this refrain that if one does not understand complexity, than it is "their right" to automatically dismiss its insignificance - therefore, seee? I don't have to obey any rationalism that I don't like, therefore, I don't have to deviate from my course ... Which leads us perhaps to C, the precise mechanism in the Fermi Paradox explanation that our species is now on a collision course with...

Oh, o-kay. I see. yeah, and that's going to be dubious for obvious reasons. Of course, muah hahaha if it is a climate threshold being breached. Ha. I guess that would be easily sussed out though if we looked at all sites and if they all exhibited the same behavior than the ( speak of the devil) significance of that above would be more useful.

'normal' is a result of all events mixed together. Conceptually, even bone-heads ( well.. not Trump supporters) can see that the odds of any future event landing a result squarely on a number that is a mix of everything is thus remote. That means that actually hitting an arbitrarily occurring value dead on whatever that "normal" value is, is no different than the Lotto. Very low odds. Basically ... everything that occurs in nature, perhaps well over 90% likelihood, is going to be ABnormal. This is particularly true for decimals (to the right) of the whole number - the more of them ... the more likely you will not ever see a 'normal' daily high temperature. The significance of the abnormality is what is really needed to be evaluated for that ... we can rely in large part on common sense. If the normal is 82 and it is 104 that quite dope-slapping is obviously more significant that 82.1. But it sounds like y'all could use a refresh, or perhaps a first time introduction to what is known in statistical science as 'Chi-Square test'. A formula that produces a rational value, then interpretive as a method for determining if the frequency differs from expected result and by how much. It looks like this ... ( ...that outta clear things up )

how and perhaps what on Earth are you seeing here that looks like anything

Yeah but you don't deserve it 'cuz you've been chiding and debasing warmth all along haha 'Sides, solar max doesn't exit until ~ the 9th of August

heh

Meh... this summer appears hell-bent on wasting all the solar max in a flat trough with no or only brief heat penetration N of the Mason Dixie. If Mr BAM's heat/ridge and all that does manifest after the 10th of August, it's more likely the meridian flow up the EC/'Bahama Blue' type. That's not mid 90s/70 ...more like 86/78 In which case the Atlantic MDR will deliver 0 anything while that is happening so stop typing that. And the "heat" is more expressed in a high DP that is getting warmed by a seasonally transitioning solar/dimmer sun. It would all just be more black mold and lone star tick migration type, incredulous because it's slow moving and therefore not directly observable CC apocalypse shit than anything else.

I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence. The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000. That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution. There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that's inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling events, over time and aggregated, taking place at large scales. So, ... pretty simple idea really. But here is the NOA's going back many decades. There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region.

Mmm I'm not sure those can be parsed out like that... "Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite " I would still proceed with interpretive caution. Look at it this way ... if the cold blob,due to AMOC flux variance is making that NF region "prone" to a colder expression, then a comparative failure in the index correlation is happening...because the former would mean that less forcing is causing the expression to take place. In short ... misleading a circulation mode that isn't so. That kind of shit is making the CC attribution seriously f with these mass field aspect. man As far as the cold blob itself ... -NAO and +NAO are taking place more independent because the atmospheric indexes are being driven by a set of forcing, vs the AMOC --> cold blob emerging because of changes in the AMOC. Again...use with caution.

Inclined to agree with skepticism there. We have been dealing with this since last October... a basal trough that at times we see ridging, but we return to this footprint since prior to the ENSO switch onset. Most importantly, warm(cool) ENSO onset in summer isn't triggering much in the hemisphere. The hemispheric/seasonal cooling from N latitudes establishes improving gradient in autumn -that is when that forcing commences. To early.

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing. Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' ) We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific. Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago. Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that. But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway. So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues. Okay - Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

It's placement geographically is beside the point. The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption. That is the point. Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes. The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change. I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason. So We'll see... But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily). Put even simpler... cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies. The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA. It's positive. Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa. So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that. But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter? These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though. In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow. It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF. Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics. Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out. Ex, in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity. That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon. Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.

Low LCL ropers