Typhoon Tip

yeah, this thing's cold physics were modeled to be very nucleated the whole time. I mean, the hydrostatic thickness plumbs something like 15 dm spanning 6 hours and return almost fully. 552 -- 538 -- 552 I'm surprised we did not get more thunder in the region but I did see a lot more lightning detection up around the ST L/ BTV region last evening so I guess -

yeah...the more I look at this now that it's now-cast and 22/hind-sighting, this is a back door. I realize folks will argue because anytime someone makes a suggestion that interrupts one's formulating narrative on social media, there is recreational blow back if not outrage - some people are just triggered. But clearly, that explanations atones best for the oddities of this thing's total deep layer circulation behavior/history. If one were to imagine a conversation with a ruddy old denizen of western Nova Scotia he would say that about 12 hours or so prior to our so-called backdoor phenomenon down here, they get just about exactly what we are getting now. It's because the short wave impulse moves overhead up there, and sends the boundary down the coast. Our unique topography then beckons it along it's journey and it doesn't stop until the Va Capes sometimes but ...that's secondary after the process has been triggered. In this case, we're just getting the impulse moving along an anomalously path from upper VT to SE MA as opposed to typically moving E QUE to NS.

Just looking at sat ... it does seem there's a defined clearing line on the N side of a narrow "CCB" tube that pressing S pretty fast. Looks like PWM to Brian type axis within the hour, and then down here Rt 2 say ... I dunno 10:30 11 o'clock? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It was about 1.5 to 2 hours of leaner gusts here and the last 1/2 hour we've stepped off the throttle. I was standing there in the kitchen making joe and looking out the window at it all ... you know, if one did not know any better they'd probably just think this was some backdoor on steroids. We were actually partly sunny here at dawn, with not much wind motion at all. These cold strata claw streets started moving overhead, and out of nowhere the trees started straining pretty abruptly shortly there after. We've had misty cool rains and the temperatures fallen from 52 at that time, to now 42. That acceleration with low cloud invasion and temp jolt ... it just 'seems' backdoorsian more than anything else. Yes yes we have a cyclone ...compact little fucker. Fascinating really, as it buzz saws it's way through the morning skies. It's odd tho regardless to pick up a CCB from this kind of entry. Typically, Nor'easters formulate OV transfer, or Miller As etc... Up under. This thing coming down on the NNW-->SSE azimuth is in fact an analog cousin to a S/W passing just N of CAR sending a boundary SW down the coast. It's just that the deep layer trajectory happened to take the S/W along a farther SW track ...roughly BTV to BOS

It's almost June... I get what your saying ... There is a tendency, pretty easily detectable one in this social media that occurs. First time someone senses less evening daylight on Aug 10 or so ... up, pack it in... it's over. The autumn one is the worst. Circa October 20 and the air smells like snow at 6:49 am. There's definitely an increase frequency in digging up extended model illustrations behavior that has blue paint - like we're supposed to take them seriously from behind a guise of just kidding. As well as a generalized improvement in the index. In this case... I don't believe anyone's "rushing seasons" if they sense some recent anachronistic behavior. Big words aside ... this is more than less unusual .. And it is tied (most likely...) to attribution/science on the matter, particularly with how CC has been changing circulation modes vs seasonal climatology. There are numerous papers on the matter already. This isn't just farmer John lobbing conjecture from a bad day out on the back 40.

hm the only thing notable so far about this entry into summer ( anyway) is that utter nondescript characteristic to the pattern. the modelling has almost nothing really fitting a known mode - it's just a mottled mess of irregularly spaced wave features from S of Alaska to the Atlantic at least for the next 2 weeks, it'd be difficult to predictively assess the temperature anomaly distribution

almost looks like this thing's truckin' along faster than guidance. geesh, we're dry slotting here by 10 pm

almost sub-synoptic scale. tight sucker.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Quebec-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

heh, what was the conversation about ? Oh, I see. yeah

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school. There are a few of these around the world. All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. That said, ... a +3 SD or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference. We should be hot too. But here's the thing ... this event is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference. It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us. It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself.

it'd be funner of this suddenly cold pool insertion aloft were to pass into the region at 18z instead of 06z...

I'm more intrigued by the near or at lowest possible qualitative ranking day on the proverbial misery scale, immediately turning around to a top 10 qualifier on Sunday. 24 hours That's a (probable) under the radar consideration? Like going from 0 to 10 in 24 hours does not typically happen. In the more objective sense, this really is a rare phenomenon, whether it snows or not. Those snow mongers with hardons on May 30th are kind of eye-rolling to be honest. It's like they have no built in limitations or cold/snot bullshit filters in their every day interpretation of reality. Could be July and they be posting "we watch" with thumb up emojis on autopilot. This has looked suspiciously like it could be grapple and probably flip to big aggies in the 1500+ range for awhile. I've heard of snow in the higher hills and mountains pretty late before. Someone should bother to look up occurrence of snow at 2,000 feet+ for all months, and see what the return rate really is. To me this looks like it's enabling some cold cism. But 2 aspects are true. It is a both a cold anomaly, while doing so in a highly unusual way. I think folks are too hung up on getting the cold itself to happen, without noticing that there is a 24 hour pass through a -2 or even -3 SD cold event where both the event entry and exit are extraordinarily steep - big deltas. For me anywho ... that's the fantastic.

Looks like a cold day, too warm for snow below 1500

I was talking to Scott about this yesterday ... there's a non-linear signal for ridge eruption along 90 to 100W coming from the numerical telecon spread (convergent), between the 6th and 10th or so. That's still the case. Since then, we're getting ensemble means burgeoning. This being the 12z EPS mean centered on 270 Notice the UK heat node's migrated to Scandinavia ... This appears to be a complete rotation of the base-line wave#. I suspect the operational more linear indicators may "detect" this physical constructive interference and start emerging a better heat signal. I'm also finding it interesting that the CPC's decided to flip the signal to an 'over-top' heat suggestion in their D8-14. They may be on to this. This signal would be above the climate signal - even though it's funny to zap Weatherwiz... I don't mean to devalue the necessity to do that -