Typhoon Tip

heh, it'd be nothing shy of marvelous if in the face of all ... nothing exceptional worth turd of mention actually happened through April. that would be sooo awesome

heh ... ever get the sense we'll be in here 71 days from now still assessing all these ways to get a winter outside the windows while we're rolling up seasonally blunted heat wave after heat wave...

This is almost like a summer heat wave .. only shave 20 to 25 off the maxes. It's like 94/100/100/92 then a front, only 74/80/80/72

hmm... We made 74 for a high T today, with considerable cloud contamination. Just looking at the sounding for tomorrow. With less critical ceiling level RH ( meaning more sun), a warmer starting T/launch, and an even warmer mixing column ... yeeeeah, 80 is possible.

lol... but, heh ... this seems more like a 'figures' thing. if someone is 'panicked', they deserve it for failing to filter expectations through plunking an el bigombo on top of a 150 years of unchecked cc

yeah, my early question was answered... 72 here. wow. DP's 49 ...not warm exactly but one can still sense a difference, seeing as it's been parchy as of late. I'm curious - btw - what the the GISS layout looks like for October due out here in another week. According to myth, legend ...and well, fact, October came in the warmest October, globally, that has ever occurred since it was determined that CC is an exaggerated hoax in a massive conspiracy ...while at the same time, apparently being actually true. interesting, and wow again... But of particular interest, we have something like 12 of the last 15 days with frost here.. I'm wondering if that meandering 'cooler relative to the whole' region that keeps showing up between Greenland and Indiana might have been situated over New England, because it definitely did come off as a very warm month here. Speculation -

may be a passive/diffused warm boundary extending S Ont thru upstate NY helping to generate and fan some of this contaminated sky...

I'm wondering if today might bust a little cooler than it could have been ...sort of thing, because these clouds - I had figured today for a continuation of sunnier. It's completely cast' over here and holding T's down it seems. Sometimes these mid ceilings will agglomerate at mid morning like this did...it was sunny here at 8... But then open back up ... not sure if that's happening but if it stays this way, it's a modest bust.

It almost looks like the temperature variation between Dec and Jan is in stasis ... like constant straight across while the climate normal dips below.

Just adding to this for those unaware ...there's an apparent category 4/5 "marine heat wave" going on from the near shore waters of San Francisco all the way down the coast... There's some modest suggestion in the total larger scale SST to be indirectly linked with the El Nino - though this is likely an artifact of proximity rather than the same forcing.

The first sentence of that is broadly true, "The IPCC, NASA, NOAA, and EPA state that essentially all of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 since the pre-industrial era originates from fossil-fuel combustion" but is spun and too absolute. In other words, they're indicating the rise in CO₂, fossil-fuel emissions being the largest contributor, not the sole source. Example, NASA describes the long-term increase as primarily driven by burning coal. They are not saying all. That matters... Not sure if that forced interpretation is just a standard method in formulating arguments among the "paper vs paper" ambit - it could cultural. They lie about what the other says, very cleverly... What I also find immediately critical about this abstract is that it does not appear to include - if even aware of - the synergy in the whole system; where natural elements and events, happening in tandem with anthropomorphic contribution/adding of volatile chemistries are where the story becomes critical. There' mathematical model comes off as a sand-box in the middle of much bigger beach of wave actions. The Keeling may not be 1:1 ... Strikes as irrelevant. Which, they may be 100% correct in that confined consideration, but reality is a holistic result and problem. The mounting evidence suggest 1:1 is not required. We know that in the case of CC that is true. Because when mathematically calculating anthropomorphic contribution, and then mathematically calculating the natural order, the differential happens to equal the the last 120 years of climate change to a very close confidence interval. SO, quibble over the math scaling while the world ends ...okay.

I'm curious what GISS graphical layout looks like in 10 or so days... My hunch is that there'll be a relative min round New England.

Don't disagree here ... But I'd just add, there only needs to be a spark to detonate an entire field of natural gas. Believe me, this year in particular, perhaps above all others, there is an ocean of gas. ...it's proven to be a part of the bounty that CC provides, anyway.. but now this on top. Forget snow or rain ... anything that happens could end up synergistically out of control production. Granted, we have to be cold enough if the discussion is snow-related... yes, there is a non-zero possibility that it is never cold enough, at least down here. I doubt it... but is so. I would never bank on that in alpine setting, either way ... maybe in 10 or 20 years of brick dipshits denialism succeeding in pushing the extinction event to the brink... But at this time, no. Otherwise, we may as well send up palm frowns to Caribou ME already. Short version, the same clipper in 1987, could product 33" these days, the specific physical mechanism is that CC and now this El Nino, pointing it's cosmic-scale hot anus at us... are ceiling the amount of water vapor can physically be in Earth's atmosphere. If cold is sniffable, it could snow that much by accident - whether it's 70 F a week later or not.

it's like Indian Summer used to come after a period of substantial frosts and/or even a snow fall back in the days of lore... Now? all we have to be is relatively cooler, than we get near 80

hm not aware of any teleconnectors for the latter half of November but from 7th to 16th or so, that's not really a cold pattern. The teleconnectors for that earlier time range are indeed -AO/+PNA ...but this is one of those situations where the numerology is lying about the super synoptic aspects, and the actual mean spatial layout. The +PNA is almost all being caused by strong neg anomalies NE of Hawaii...but the flow subtending down stream over the Conus is very zonal... so it's misleading to some degree. As to the -AO...that's suspicious too. The actual orientation of the heights/contouring show an annular structure about the AO domain, but the domain itself happens to have modest positive anomalies. That's the problem with using strictly the geopotential anomalies to compute the orthogonal/eof derivatives, particularly when the heights everywhere are about a coffee break from kicking off the super extinction event heh seriously, it's closer to an annular flow type just happening to be above normal.