Typhoon Tip

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are + Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C) where C denotes climate. But it's not just temperature? seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too. Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario. The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW... and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come. Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada. I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. Much less... in April These are odd circumstances. These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone ha ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ). Anyway, I keep having to step back over this shit and go, "what in the f is happening here". Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar oddities, too subtle for most to even be aware... Besides, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care. It's just unknowable to them.

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

Mmm... slow down there,

heh... just a general note on the NAO. Taken fwiw but my personal observation with -NAO(+NAO)s that are long lead signals is that they have very poor verification. We already know with safe assumption that in partial (at least) this has gotta be true, because the actual ridge node associated with the physical manifestation of the NAO block itself is being placed in different locations on every other run of the guidance. So off the bat, there's poor deterministic value there. But, even at a more orbital consideration, 'do they even happen?' ... I've come to find that a significant number of occurrences when -NAOs(+NAOs) show up in that D10 to 2-week window, they don't even exist when the whole of it is D4/5/6. They don't survive continuity coming into mid range. Out of all atmospheric indices, the NAO handling is just not well logistically managed by any one or any thing. This -NAO manifested about 5 days ago... about when it was D12. Prior to that... we were going to roll right back into a warm up. But then Monday's sharp trough and attending cold shot showed up, and it seems the models "might" have been getting a bit overzealous in creating positive anomaly NE of it as it turned the corner and rose in latitude through the Maritime of Canada. But two aspects are true and they are sort of competing. The 2nd aspect is also a personal observation, particularly in late winter into springs: when we have a warm anomalous pattern, the breakdown has in the past seemed to segue the -NAO response. It's like the warm anomaly rises in latitude and gets dumped up there...then takes 3-5 days to finally disperse... a time in which we tend to get cold shits down this way. The former aspect is more of an always consideration. The latter is a spring one. I'm trying to assess which is going to be the case. It seems at this moment, while typing, we're getting a hybrid expression between in the guidance complexions.

Do you have the 00z version of this at 186 ?

Relative to all climate zones there's a tendency in the guidance, et al, to back off the "doom" as you say. Certainly CT ( 00z GFS ) does the best - just by virtue of where they are. Case in point, they flip glorious on Thur/Fri for example as a stuck warm/stationary boundary slices from Watertown-ish NY-like to Providenceness, Rhode Islage. Just quantificaiton of that snap shot is probably 80 at HFD and 55 with a feeble Labradorian prostate drip coming into Logan. Not the full-on cold dildo flogging of previous runs. Can and Euro leave something to be desired, but they are also less cold in total qualitative.

58 with very little wind under August 23rd sun ( this weekend) is going be just fine for me, anyway. Sunday sucks tho. Nasty cold front with a 36 hour -5 anomaly behind it...I guess we need something to keep it real tho.

I know what you're getting at but 65/44 ( say ..) is still a very significant warm anomaly. (as an aside, also a handsome CC piggy. haha)

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS. I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April. Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either. The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion. The Canadian being the most happy. The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

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The overall mean thicknesses are not quite as cold, either. It's like what Jerry was suggesting, more like reality April. But D8/9 Euro is above normal on this run, too ... It's just more like convoluted spring typology. Bowling season

hmm I really don't think the models know what to do later next week. It seems a cool down is inevitable but these 12z runs are all over the place with domain features compared to previous.

ESE wind at 1K high ORH AP and it's about to tap 80 F .... In mid April

Look at all this incredible warm summeriness on the extended Euro!

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