Typhoon Tip

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread. LOL seriously tho.

So ...what exactly was I going for LOL

Okay, I was responding to that post - within which you did not specify "this country" I wasn't aware if there's any back ground context preceding - Having said that... I agree in so much that people don't notice what does not cause them inconvenience more directly than it has. However, the fact that there are examples of this abroad should cause some pause anyway ... but that's perhaps a different discussion.

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data and "unconstrained interpretation" ( last 20 years...). They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), then it looks unmanageable to them in what's really become sociological crisis in society. All dimensions. Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, is actually causing frenetic disruption, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. It's not just America either. It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon. It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity. --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis... It's not gonna end well, folks.

I play this game every year. I try for October 15; not sure what my success vs failure in winning that date is on average. I've had years where I could not make it ... like it was 48 in the place some dawn, with frost out there on the lawn, and yeah, the forecast was 64 for high but mmm. The house has a 'cold memory' when the sun's not exactly heating the house this late in the year. One year ..I think it was 2009, my in-laws had ripening tomatoes and new yellow flowers on Thanks Giving as we toured their huge garden in cargo shorts weather. I think I made it to early Dec that year ... It was 57 in here this morning. I could have given the place a puff of heat but it feels weird to do that when it's going to be 80 from Saturday to next Wednesday ...

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-antarctic-sea-ice-emerges-key.html

This really isn't true... (bold). There is well documented increased frequency of phenomenon that struck agriculture. The objective/observed reality of the Serbian climate refugees, a diaspora out of native farming regions due to climate change took place 15 years ago, and caused political-geodesic instability too... That's already occurred. There is empirically measured oceanic level rise that is inundating island nations, and also effecting an increased frequency of coastal storm impacts. Increasing numbers of deadly heat waves have struck European regions. Droughts in Australia have become increasingly more desiccating over time. All but impossible hydro management due to low predictive onset of excessive extremes of rainfall and associated inundation, followed by extraordinarily fast drying phases, have been plaguing interior Eurasia and Asia proper. All of these examples are both empirically measured, then ... mathematically proven to be attributed to alterations in the climate, which are connected to changes in the atmospheric circulation modal behaviors, all around the globe. It may be suffice it to say that they haven't happen enough? Not enough so to really garner the attention ( that they should...), which enables this kind of disrespect of the significance, and also ... false narrative/presentation - that would be apropos enough. But saying hasn't been the case, is false.

yeah, this description ^ is more so here. I called it frost, but it wasn't the direct crystal condensation variety. The dew on the car tops froze aoa 36. No evidence of grass/ground coverage. Very marginal. So I guess this was the nadir, now we go hugely the other way. If the high really does anchor right on top like the guidance pin then the nights may decouple and favor cold in New England at nights relative to the total synoptics of the GL/OV/NE region. Big diurnals, with some weighting down of afternoon readings.

Oh, I see what's going on. It's the same modeling phenomenon I've been noticing happening during JJA/summers lately for that matter. Guidance et al have this tendency to anchor and stall the surface high pressure right on top of us. Meanwhile +2 or more sigma 500 mb ridges roll over the top... Getting a Bermuda surface ridging actually S of our latitude seems to be a difficult feat by modeling nowadays - at that charm to the climate change till I guess... But the idiosyncratic limitation on heat then kicks in because high right on top, stops proficient mixing. The models don't seem to like doing it from just diurnal overturning alone - they like to have some sort of WSW gradient actively doing the mixing for them. That's probably why we see all the current 80+F prognostic 2-meter temperatures stuck back in the Great Lakes.

While it's certainly enough to delay any affectation of seasonal change ... I'm not seeing that the 850 mb/lower thickness intervals as being very excessive - relative to climo. It seems the models are trying to pack most of this late heat spell into the 500 mb heights. Sometimes I wonder if the modelers put coefficient muting factors into the framework. Control run-away excessive scenarios from taking off. Like "synergy" blockers. - just sarcasm. Whatever it is, the 500 mb non-hydrostatic impression alone looks straight up like a streak of days hosting record breaking temperatures... But, the lower troposphere is being held too cool to realize that. In 2020 ( and I think last year too - ), we saw 80F in the first two weeks of November. It's not too late to cook up some heat. Things have to be ideal though this late.

36 fantastic drainage decoupling night. 1K ORH never lower than 44. Big ranges... "fake" cold as the locals often play it

Not gonna beat the dead horse again, but as I posted several times, it’s just the biological pathology of evolution that we are slaved to physical senses; we don’t believe it until it hurts, by the time climate change hurts … it will be too late; so that’s why we’re doomed I could’ve written the book he wrote I’m sure

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite. should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky. not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

Man, check out MEX machine numbers. They're over +15 ..approaching +20 at a D5 range. It's getting easier to do that now that we're into October ( +15 on July 20th is about 108 F haha), but still... MEX is weighted by climatology the farther out in time. By any D5, there's a significant amount of negative weight there - unless they've changed that product derivative/philosophy... But these numbers in the 00z run are up into the low to mid 80s from BDL to ASH on Sunday. Upper 70s to low 80s beginning Saturday thru mid next week, otherwise. The subtext to this being ... if removing the climate weighting, what's the "real" potential here. I gotta figure it's not a lot higher though - not sure the sun is up to the task this late in the year. What's the ceiling? This reminds me of the November balm that took place in 2020, when for 4 or so days there were 50 F lows followed by 80+F highs. I figure for that + maybe 4 to 6 degrees?

Man was that a good baseball game