Typhoon Tip

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions. The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect. We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs? forfuckumgetit! Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation" The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too - Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject. This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate. But regionally? the farmers know

I think I'd like to see that just because we don't seem to get coastal storms worth a shit nearly as often as yester-decades. The general dearth of ... something, anything really to substantiate and qualitatively argue for even having this hobby has become very challenging. Otherwise? have fun with 4 and half months in dark mud season stern.

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck. Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre.. Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year. Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit. I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence. But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter. The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see: CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ... ...occurring under a lowering boreal heights? Explosive potential. Absolutely! That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily. By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community? Mainly a SNE/CNE affair. We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though. I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter? I don't need all that. Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern. There'll be potential to do more along the way. Maybe one will blockbuster. Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days. Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change… For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still at least acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

Ha talk about being white boarded 1

OH I love this product. heh. I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc. Weird. It's actually called phase density. Different topic: I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some. I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit. In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance. I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive. It's a pattern augmenter. If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. In the much broader perspective, when in phase the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor. To get a sense of if the positive(negative) interference scheme, I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index (outlook and recent biases). A -WPO phases constructively with 7-8-1-2 MJO ... then transmitted across the wave train of the Pacific sends a +PNA. I would call such a hemisphere harmonically interfering (constructive). Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with this, that adds. Contrasting, if the MJO is 3-4-5-6, that is a destructive interference (technically a loss of constructive due to geometric placement around the equatorial girdle). But in this latter circumstance ... it is less than clear if the MJO will even factor as the Asia/-WPO can quite obviously at times overwhelm/suppress - it's presence is still there but it's rendered meaningless if the former is dictating policy. This is how constructive vs destructive interfering manifests on the pattern. I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the Constructive vs Destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A. The pattern disconnect times may show some proportionality to C or D.

My guess for the remainder of the geriatric summer is formulated purely out of persistence. No heat. The longer persistence goes on seemingly interminably like this, it naturally just becomes difficult for one to imagine things can actually change. Heh. The atmosphere wouldn't stop troughing the GL/NE region if it were an edict from god. But I've seen this kind of stolen summer from New England antic in seasons of lore, before. Usually what happens is summer attempts to come back in the first half of September. So figure faux fall until then, a time in which we'll still somehow managing to be +.5 above climate averages - so technically above normal. Long about Sept 3 or something, whence solar is starved and irrelevant, we'll put up 10 days of non-synergistic +6s. That way, we can look like the rest of the world's CC predicament, but without ever suffering any consequences. That ending aspect really has been protecting N-E of the Mason Dixie and SE Climate for years. Lol. True or not ... it just seems we're a climate dumpster here.

May be a winter hosting unusual anomaly/extremes around the hemisphere - more so than climo. For one, warm ENSOs are notorious for that, anyway, but as qc_omega intimated, with CC underneath I find it difficult to imagine a better arena for synergistic feedback. Huge changeability that ranges between somewhat below normal to outlandishly above normal. Basically a bigger variance gap than usual, repositioned on the warmer side of climate.

Must be an elevated dry layer amid the ambient sounding

Yeeeah... okay. There's a couple of facets here. I agree with you not to ignore "denialism" in the whole of western industrial society and recent cultural modalities (...largely a result of corruption) to do so. Of course. However, I was talking about certain repeating members of this forum - I have trouble believing their intent is born of mere 'innocence having been misled'. Because the logic has been explained in nothing short of 1+1=2 type certitude, yet won't penetrate? I doubt it - one can tell if one is coming from the blowhards chorus like those your implicating, vs you and I. We are clearly and logically by written material, decipherable as not being of the former ilk/bad social media informatica. Thus, these individuals are either not capable of the intelligentsia, or, they're immoral. As far as an implicit idea of a movement against disinformation? No problem. Unfortunately, it's also going to be a tall task. It's an untenable task. Risking a digression, it's why I think humanity is in its 10 hours. It's a metaphor borrowed from stellar evolution. A large star, perhaps 4+ times the mass of our sun, may burn in the hot end of the main sequence for many millions of years but because it's mass is so large, it's gravity is more intense, so the core temperature/rate of fusion is greatly accelerated. The core of the star starts to fuse iron ... game over. It takes more energy to fuse iron than the fusion of iron gives back to the star, and the core suddenly finds itself without enough thermal pressure to withstand the ... unimaginable power of gravitation crushing down. Core collapse takes place. As it does, it gets to the neutron density threshold and there and then, a bounce at the moment the core is determining a fate as a neutron star, or a stellar mass black hole. In either case, the out going energy of the bounce not claimed by core gravity well, surges outward through the star. When it breaches the surface it is observable as a super nova. It takes typically 10 hours for the shock wave to do so, a time in which the star continues to shines in magnificence and glory ... as though nothing out of the ordinary has taken place, just like it had for the many millions of years. It's as though the star has no idea it's a corpse. Sound familiar.. ? We may be in our 10 hours - keeping in mind, it's a metaphor.

I sense we're incrementally inching closer, year by year, to the 'winter it didn't snow' Up N that's more likely just a shockingly low season total, but ranging to a phatty 0 at LGA and Logan. ORH got 1.5" of glop on January 7th and white pawed their way to more climate denial excuses. Sardonic aside, eventually that does have to happen. It'll be once ...then 5 years goes by, a span that host so-so's and one winter that is phenomenal, as much for snow as it will be enabling. Then, it happens again so soon? huh. Eventually ... they're happening more frequently and viola, "we're not Va Beach" This is a toad in the pan thing -