Typhoon Tip

There it is ... the new climate normal for snow in October

looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place... ~+3.2C now.

yeah... I was just remarking about this over the ENSO thread this morning. It's anomalously cold relative to pattern - which is interesting ... if one can keep personal druthers out of the perspectives. We've observed a trough scooting quickly through Ontario a couple of times, but by and large ... we've been above normal hydrostats over much of the CONUS below the 45th parallel, yet ... we are getting frost and freeze headlines and lows in the upper 20s. -the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics like the pattern. It's like we've been getting "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, stunningly warm a lot of months, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W. It's interesting that we just cannot seem to sustain a westerly lower tropospheric momentum under this July setting ... like in Julys either! This whilst frost advisories underneath ...

SSW's may be challenged more so than climatology this season. Hard to say ...some competing signals... Pro: there is an apparently ( assuming so ) a modeled switch into the westerly QBO phase pretty quickly this autumn. W-QBO correlates to a easterly momentum inject into the stratospheric altitudes. It's like warm advection currents dissipating at higher altitudes capture/drags some of that momentum then intrudes it into the PV ... and helps the wave break/ SSW phenomenon. Con: however, this has been a very active solar disk spring/summer/ and continues here in autumn. These solar 'storms' break apart ozone in the high altitudes. UV loading related... Ozone is the primary conductance in getting warm intrusions to 'flash' through the higher PV column.

Likely related ... ... for one, although the sample size is not appreciably large ( on the order of 10 or 12 spanning 200 years ), of those warm ENSO, something like 9 or 10 had these autumn hybrid like circulations. Not meaning to say that is what's going on down there at this time, but... you know, if you're going to hybridize a gyre in that region, you wanna start with something like the theme we are in fact seeing so far ( the unusual end September coastal event that was over publicized (snark) being a fair example). Some guidance couldn't resist and bored that thing down to almost 970 mb.. as it were ... it was just a pedestrian. But still very really and albeit asynchronous low - one which happens to fit the total idea. We are still in the correlation window so this weakness/tendency for another low there ... it's suggestive enough. It's important to note however, El Ninos do not directly cause storm or no storm formation.

Yeah...maybe. Don't know. Parsing out the momentum like that over years - that's harder ( at least for me ) to balance sheet that because circulation modes get seasonally mutilated by winter and summer for one. But, the 2023 spring planetary temperature explosion phenomenon is super-climatological in nature and really appears to have taken place mutually exclusive of the ENSO cycling. We need to bear in mind that the sea system and the atmospheric system, en masse, burst .5 C upward in all dimensions, all at once. That in and of itself is still not very satisfyingly explained ...though there are some compelling ideas. sure. But anyway, that took place prior to the end of a cool ENSO, and a couple months before the onset of an ... interim warm phase that frankly I feel was some sort of "absorption event" to try and eat that heat and didn't reflect a truer Nino atmospheric circulation mode outside of the immediate tropics...maybe lower subtropical bands... but that's farmer John's supposition. Anyway, detonating an entire planet like that doesn't lend to stable predictions.

Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before. But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly. There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away. It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory. It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory. We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve! So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode. It complicates matters further these days when/since previous modes became increasingly more disrupted ..heh. However, in this case since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there (therefore, atmospheric mode-), there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter.

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant. I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W. Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP... Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree. The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent. This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE. We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before! it's really interesting, this masking aspect. yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.

It’s like trying to trend into a warm week Wait next week

Worcester couldn't even make freezing last night. 26 already 35 though. Still air leaf fall flitting through the lateral morning sun rays... always a neat effect.

Agreed ... To understand the global perspective does represent certain challenges. vastly understated Can't be done really. Quantum Computing may one day be equal to the task, but that's probably a ways off yet. Or so it is thought... On a separate note, QC's advent along human history has a creepy aspect about it. Like if some agency made the plug-in breakthrough to claim ownership of the most powerful device ever contrived by human kind, the ability to peer into the intentions of God, would they even tell anybody they were that agency? uhm... hmm. Let's see, to do so makes them target (oh yeah, thaaat). Very delicate. Plus, we cannot mix that up with the humanity inside humans. Unless of course our naivete is just inherently entrusting the better valor of all people... yeah no problem go for it Ho man. imagine that? The issue with doldrums occurring in the midst of GW is this word called synergy. Synergy, when combined actions and operations synthesize a product that is more than the summation of the individual parts. GW is bad. Doldrums were probably always part of the natural order... But working as team?

speak of the devil... interesting for objective readers/learners: https://phys.org/news/2026-10-el-nio-storm-weather-disaster.html

I thinks it’s a prelude of winter’s behavior. fast fast fast any short waves worth a shit will speed up through the field proportional to to their strength.

Compared the operational Euro and GFS from 2 and half days ago to this 12z run this morning, and the cold is ~12 dm less cold in the thickness as a steady correction over the span of those model runs since... Get used to that during this winter.

That data, particularly how they relate/conveys behavior about the natural setting, are misleading the way you've presented. ...a basic interpretation skill of the data is needed here: 1 ... systems in nature seldom move along predictable well behaved trajectories. As an aside, and obvious caution is also needed. GBR system is one example. Note, ~40% of the whole world's reefs are at risk of extinction due to climate change. 2, logical flaw in you one example anyway: That GBR system shows recovery; that does not evince any kind of proof of either sustainability there - certainly there's no logic in using one example that the world is safe from climate change, either. But we'll let that tacit exception go... 3, the primary aspects that affect coral: Thermal stress and bleaching: heat can kill corals, or weaken them and reduce growth and reproduction—even if they survive. Mechanical stress from turbid waters... this arrives from enhancing wave action in the mean energy, as well as specific to tropical cyclones. Competing biology. Example, Crown-of-thorns starfish that eat living coral. Specific species ... coral reefs are a vast colony of different species. Some regions of the world have more(less) phenology. So, you're use in exemplifying the GBR demonstrates a too limited, too linear response mechanism in how/why the affects/effects in the vitality of reef. 'Oh, since there's a recent regrowth' no thermal stress. Incorrect. Your are not even aware that a biological competition within the reef, combined with transients in growth offsets - causing temporary rebound, or much in the way of the complexity of how these individually differentiating factors, then interact to create curve behavior that moves up and down but is misleading over larger data sets. WRT to GBR example... studies by AIMS and Yale point to the biggest factor in recent regrowth was particularly fast-growing species, Acropora. The corals produced were during a relatively favorable interval for species, but that does not represent the vitality of the whole structure. It can't. Not when the vitality requires a vast phenology of species input. Overall, bleaching events were still extensive but less intense than those earlier events, causing less mortality. But, the recnet increase was driven mostly by the Acropora. So the rise is better explained by rapid coral growth plus a temporary reduction in regional stress factor, not as evidence of a sustained ocean-cooling trend. .. I don't have time to run down the rest of you list of probably similarly shallow refutation points... I'll stop here. Good luck with your debate.