Typhoon Tip

I can't find climate-specific data regarding the accuracy of modeled -NAO(+NAO) index values, at different time ranges... Then considering seasons? no chance. Good luck trying to find what no one has apparently ever sicced a red-eyed grad student on because it doesn't apparently exist. That said, I'm personally certain that -NAOs modeled beyond D7 have a deplorably bad verification score, where as ...those scheduled to manifest between D3 and 6 ( mid range) are the ones that most often materialize. This -NAO in the guidance since last week is a nice candidate to test Charlie Browning with that particular index, because it's been out there in the extended index prog a lot longer than 7 days. Thing is... I wouldn't be shocked if there is at least some sort of -NAO observed down wind and time of this warm anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent. That's a correlation actually that I have personally seen. It doesn't say anything to magnitude or west or eastern limb. But warms up --> cools down/-NAO is progression. The 12z Euro is attempting to abandon the -NAO by D8/9 now ...and it reminds of the fragility in modeling that index is all. It could go either way.

CC exerting itself in insidious ways. Like, April 15, backdoor front comes through ... and it cools us back down to above average instead of insanely above average.

It's impressive watching the hi res visible sat loop at how fast the cloud field is moving W-E ...even the CU field, and then to have this BD thing be so wildly decouple from that blithely wobbling west through the state like that.

Hey Scott ...check this out. Remember we were talking about this... Same phenomenon is notable here, where the negatives are nominally compared to the positives, which have this tendency to go out of control. This is HFD on the Prelim at NWS Boston DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 77 45 61 18 4 0 0.12 0.0 0 8.9 18 20 M M 9 27 340 2 45 37 41 -3 24 0 0.70 0.0 0 9.3 13 20 M M 10 1 M M 3 67 37 52 8 13 0 0.02 M 0 8.1 22 200 M M 8 1 27 190 4 70 41 56 11 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 23 100 M M 8 29 110 5 54 39 47 2 18 0 0.12 0.0 0 7.0 21 320 M M 10 1 29 340 6 51 32 42 - 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.9 25 290 M M 6 37 300 7 52 29 41 -5 24 0 T T 0 10.1 25 310 M M 6 5 36 310 8 51 24 38 -8 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 190 M M 1 22 200 9 57 28 43 -4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.5 23 190 M M 3 33 190 10 69 36 53 6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.8 23 180 M M 5 32 200 11 59 42 51 3 14 0 T 0.0 0 13.6 25 300 M M 4 35 310 12 59 31 45 -3 20 0 T 0.0 0 10.0 22 190 M M 5 30 200 13 80 45 63 15 2 0 T 0.0 0 10.9 24 240 M M 8 33 260 14 86 52 69 20 0 4 0.23 0.0 0 9.5 25 170 M M 7 13 36 180

Not that anyone cares but this backing boundary is through Ayer now... So far, it's been a 5-7 F knock back but it doesn't appear to be aggressive. Seeing a lot of 72's persisting E of here. Won't matter on the day's numbers. We tend to get our high for the day about now anyway. It was 82. Nothing like a +22F climo smash

Standard meteorology misses the BD boundary types in the atmospheric spectrum of phenomenon. We just don't have a physical recognition for them. They at least say "Outflow Boundary" on the current surface synoptic charts from linear MCS' and stuff. They should at least do something about being oblivious to a monster 20 pt temp correction from something like this... Instead...they only have us safely in a warm sector, no worries... I mean, that's not trivial. It's hugely miss-informing what's actually happening to give us this,

Shorts and short-sleeves in full effect now... 76, almost no wind under a searing sun winning thru a smear of thinning cirrostrata and mare's tales. Even tho there is a blue balled Labradorian cold plume lurking up near Ray back porch it ooks and feels like straight up summer. I'm sure the door arrives here at some point over the next couple hours... Brain and Scott, your beloved Norways absolutely exploded overnight in town here. Since 2 days ago ...they went from vaguely discerned bud swell to full flower and even infant tiny leafs hidden inside the bouquets. Red maples are clearly flowering, too. Doesn't look so nuclear anymore. Forsythias obviously fully out. Lawns are greened and/or greening with some lengthening of grass stalk. Just saw a bumble bee hovering around in wonder - like a silent homage to a confusingly early air mass. CC does have it's moments in guilty dividends, huh ( hopefully that triggers Winterwolf and Ginxy into an entertaining back draft - )

PSM Apr 15, 10:55 am 54 51 92 ENE 8 0.75 Mist OVC003 1013.80 29.82 29.93 Apr 15, 9:55 am 53 51 93 E 7 1.00 Mist OVC003 1013.50 29.81 29.92 Apr 15, 8:55 am 60 59 96 N 3 2.00 Mist FEW004 BKN200 1012.10 29.77 29.88 Apr 15, 8:31 am 59 57 94 W 3 2.00 Mist FEW001 BKN200 1012.10 29.77 29.88 Apr 15, 8:14 am 59 57 94 N 0 0.50 Fog FEW001 BKN200 1011.70 29.76 29.87 You can see the BD, or whatever this backed in cold nuts shit is, in those top two rows... Temp fell back 7 F and the wind into the E. Thing is, the wind is only 8 kts after a half hour inside. Also, the sat loop shows the leading edge of the strata arc has slowed while attempting to move into Essex. These are either false indicators, or, they mean this thing isn't going to get very far SW over the mid day here. Have to now-cast which ...

OH f yeah. I lived in Rockport ( cold north Atlantic hiny cockport ) for year back in the day. You pretty much just assume there is no other reality but the stench of kelp and the distant wine of gull fly-bys, when there isn't the ghostly howl of hypothermic wind gust through telegraph lines. There's a couple of coffee breaks where something vaguely similar to continental summer merriment shows up from late June to early August ...along with droves of tourism... otherwise, that's a different climate driven salt culture out there, period. Ipswitch? mm... perhaps a hybrid of that but enough genetics to still look just as ugly. I guess tho - in fairness - once your stuck out there and accept it ? It kinda does have a charm. Then aspects like ocean fury and tidal challenges/Nor'easters can be fun.

Oh ...I see... that thrust thru the lower GOM waters nearing Essex appears to be around the backside of a weak meso-beta scale low scooting E along the stationary front. WPC at least analyzes that low below-left. Were they also analyze a standard boundary as a cfront along the VT/NH border as is illustrated. As usual, they don't acknowledge really the BD mechanics going on below-right. If the low moves east more that might terminate the momentum with that plume/BD aspect there but ... not sure how that all entangles with the main boundary. Plus the convective sewage coming out of NY is there, too

70 fwi temporarily w

really? heh. that sat image I posted looks pretty ominous... okay, we'll bide time

Oh yeah...that's coming ... It looks like it in this vantage https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

If that's the case we're probably doomed. Make it to noon, ... 1pm tops here in Ayer. Could be one of those days where it's 74 and dewy with sun, and then 2 hours later, jacket and slate misty sky weather. It's hard to say. Well, sore anus April climate tells us it's likely, but sometimes tho rarely ...fronts will dangle there.

I'd like to assess where the main boundary is toward evening. We may also distill the present status quo with new convection during the daylight today ? seems humid and warming fast, with a residual plumb/outflow propagating through NYS poised to move into this warming environment. Not sure if that holds together as a trigger or continues to fan out and ultimately disappears like sometimes happens as the sun fixes the atmosphere in the morning. Anyway, right now some of those NAM solution with BD from two days ago are proven false. WPC's analysis doesn't look anything like that... not that they do a very good job charting BD fronts, but given to the regional obs layout with wind and temperatures, the fronts not moving and is situated central NE with no observable evidence of its kinking/collapsing along the Maine coast - so far. Watch that... soon as PSM goes NE at 16kts and crashes to 52 ...we're doomed. Otherwise, if we do erupt, rain cooling will probably "team up" and the whole thing repositions south. Guidance et al not likely picking up on those kind of meso nuances. If things reposition south ...elevated rise over a make-shift boundary makes elevated instability more "enlightening"