Typhoon Tip

I guess they are relying on the "in or around" aspect to capture and inform the risk ... lol Synoptic parameterization throughout the day today do not appreciably differentiate eastern interior MA, nor S. ME, from that region. But, I have not read their AFD; I may be missing something

this illustration there is annoying... the arrow of the circulation eddy is pointed up demonstratively where they write "down" welling

Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… there’s gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.

Yeah, I’ll give it a read

Regard to these linear correlations… That’s backward incompatible then? Seems that way Descending solar would cancel out the very things the El Niño is positively correlated with…. Obviously not the absolute sense. Just sayn’ You only need two big blizzards to make a winner out of winter

Yeah, I should’ve said that ”in relation to the models” I am aware of the climate timing. I just am wondering what it means when the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with - this represents certain challenges … perhaps even for the Relative ONI ( I haven’t been paying much attention to this thread and very busy so apologies if this has been dragged through the coals already)

Where do things stand now, relative to predictions? ahead behind on time

I was out on the golf course ... we ended up paired up with an 8th grade teacher and his son in-law. Long about hole 8 or so the teacher began commiserating over the dumbing down of society. He was urging, no exaggeration, that working in a medium economic foot print school system that he does ... these kids can't do math. Like, really... 13X14 = a trip to chapGPT or they're lost. And the school system(s) are overwhelmed. They can't flunk whole grades-worth of bulk bodies. I mean ... my god. It came about because I was railing on about how since the Industrial Revolution, we've created a societal machinery where people have to think less and less - they're mistakes are cleaned up by the system.. so generational stupification ..etc He was musing on about how climate change this, nuclear wars that... the next covid or alien invasion ...? it's all going to pale in comparison when that generation starts inheriting the Earth "you have no idea" where the apocalypse agent is really hiding. We laughed in morbid amusement

Synoptic scaffolding of what's going on between the Azores and the Urals through that area of the hemisphere really argues for the apex of this current burst to be about 4 days from now.

Super duper bust? Moderate ENSO might still be able to penetrate RONI

mm not really. Snark aside ... I posted the monthly means every month of this last winter. We were always the coldest or proximal to the coldest region during the 3rd warmest winter on record. Oh, but look out! It'll be the warmest nights ever

It's a bit uncanny too because of the Meteorology going on over this "cold" air. It's 582 heights with 570 dm hydrostats... We've been 96 F on those parametrics before. There's something peculiar about this area of the planet Earth. It's always, always, always, at least excuse imagined, the coldest it can possibly be relative to anything allowed.

Tomorrow and Thursday may be sneaky hot... American MOS is 87 to 89 -ish, but after all this soil modulation from N VA all the way up .. and not much actual air mass change, the HI's will be 90+

Mm... to be fair, not sure how much of a "bust" this is... It rained spot 8" totals ivo of slow moving convection around the mid and upper M/A - which by nature of what that is, yeah, it's very localized ... granted. But doing so in a general 2-4" coverage from Delware to SE NH is reasonable. What busts in my mind is the amplitude in the models - to some degree, that was the case this time, just like we've seen so many times in the past since these models got updated, circa 2015, and have been consistently biased about ever since. 96 to 200+ hour range tends to "end the world" far more frequently than the pedestrian aspect that actually takes place. Some normalization is all but dependable. Again.. a filtration that still ... fails to modulate impressions of guidance by humans. This is what leads to the 2nd form of bust... (these are two concurrent busts moving past one another). Humans than exaggerating... exaggeration is not ever likely to end well for verification. Removing the wanton human goober factor, and accounting for the known model amp bias... it rained within reason. Someone else mentioned something that I liked the other day... Maybe it was Scott or Vortex95 ? but raining 6" is impressive no matter what, but it's different animal entirely when that occurs in 2 hours rather than 2 days. Basically ...it rained a decent amount over a large multi-regional aspect. Perspectives will never land on objective reality.

just under an inch here of perfect falling rate, nourishing rains. I can imagine all you dystopian codependent nega-nauts are oddly displeased by the gentle beauty of everything is awesome lol And no, Scott. when dealing with social media/blue light psychotropic stimulus addiction, a 1,000 feet of ocean covering the land will still be stein if there's no other source for a drug fix