Typhoon Tip

If that happens the entire Pacific oceanic heat wave it’s called ..,east of the dateline is going to be eradicated at a record rate. That’s unlikely though

It’s real and you know why it’s happening don’t ya

it's amazing how drama seeking changes whence one owns the responsibility, huh

yup... that's been a glaring aspect. don't usually get something on the EC while the west is plummeting - this 12z Euro run may be onto something. i mentioned earlier that a contraction s is possible but ...heh, not sensing much acknowledgement. wonder why haha

yeah ...and so their flyin' around cold addled with their stingers stuck projected infinitum, too

impressive to see a 27 F recovery by 11am ... That's a lot. Might be the most explosive diurnal turn around (rate of change) we've seen in some time. We could make 60, which put this in contention for biggest spread, too.

No it isn't; complete conspiracy

Meh... this is how the hemisphere seasonally sheds its therms, though. I.e, longer nights, ideal radiative transfer into free space. Then, with ensuing diurnal insolation being insufficient to add as much energy as the energy that is lost, there is a net cooling in the ambient space. This principle makes me less objectively willing to call anything fake. I get what that means ... I guess I just don't agree in belittling it. My druthers aside, these "fake cold" nights take their toll. More of them as the sun slopes deeper by day, and the nights get yet longer and longer; the cold battery of the winter hemisphere is gaining charge. More proficiently N than S, of course, until the build up becomes significant.

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models. The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that. The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved.

This was/is always likely to be nothing more than a climo nor'easter. Pretty much just an autumnal raw rainy time of it, swept along by manageable wind. Less than very remarkable in either case. That should be the baseline expectation with this thing. Yeah, that allows a realistic expectation that someone, some how might over-achieve in either measure, but any observation would be the exceptions to the rule. I still wonder if at the last minute ... a bit of a S contraction in late modeling with less push all the way up. I'm not forecasting that, but I'd be leery of that happening. Either way, the high pressure that's currently parked and giving cause to the current shot across the bow air mass, is retreating due east. SO... it may result less d-drip dose potency than wanted, but your getting a raw east wind whether this thing does that weird oblong thrust up the coast or not. One aspect I'm noticing is just how weak this whole structure is in the H500 evolution. 35 kt jet at 500 mb, parallel offshore the EC doesn't typically inspire all that much. The low pressure is objectively not modeled much lower than 1000 mb - some guidance as low a 995 but the average is higher than that. Even though I said 'climate nor'easter' above, the former is in fact weaker than a climate nor'easter. I'm only giving it that much in deference to that structural anomaly these guidance insist will take place; a bit of an anomalous polarward expansion around the N wall of the cyclone basin.

Red herring's still on the table I'm noticing a weakening trend in the H500s that's very subtle over the last 2 days ( look at 18z two days ago and compare it to this run...etc). Eventual if that continues and it this slips below a forcing threshold it's a laugher. It's just not a convincing signal. But sure why not

It'll end up being a climo nor'easter in the end. most likely ...

who needs hybrids when next up on the docket wrought this

yeah... not sure what the hard empirical averages are but just anecdotally ... it feels about right to get frosts going about now. Freeze? meh ... semantics once that former does get going in my mind. I think - as an aside - it's interesting that the operational Euro and sometimes the GFS ...keep trying to bring winter air masses ( like sub 540 dm!) plumes into GL-SE Canada-NE in their extended ranges. I don't necessarily dismiss the notion of early winter expressions, when both the numerical teleconnectors, and the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensembles have a 2010 sort of -NAO semblance in their Oct 20th+ ranges. But, with the PNA doing an unmanned fire hose flopping around in the guidance underneath, we're also seeing big warm surges rolling underneath and sometimes flipping us the other direction - but very little continuity as that implies.

there's a distinction between 'freeze' vs 'just a frost' ... probably. I mean if you've had a 27 in your back yard, say, but that wasn't general regional result, you're still included in it