Typhoon Tip

Not sure I agree here... We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one. Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency. Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them. Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection. But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched. The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen. But it's still falling

Climo nor'easter in the end... That's only by impact too - most coastal storms don't emerge the way this one did, with such torpid H500 evolution amid what looks like a spaghetti plot of isopleths.

At least we got a decent Saturday ( recently ...), because this, this day is why I don't believe New England is worth it in the long run. I just find this to be more loathsome than any so-called top 10 day is lovely. There can never be equality in a weather solvency becuase bad vs good? the bad is always that much worse. Anyway ... I'd lost track of how many proverbial top 10 days we'd had since mid summer. Eventually ... some sort of justice ( seeing as New England is clearly persecuted for ever experiencing weather joy ) was going to come calling. This, here on this day and as evidenced in this satellite shit show below, is the ass of the judge hangin' over us ... midway through a colonoscopy prep

It's CNN so tfwiw but .. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/13/climate/tipping-points-coral-reef-ice-amoc

If that happens the entire Pacific oceanic heat wave it’s called ..,east of the dateline is going to be eradicated at a record rate. That’s unlikely though

It’s real and you know why it’s happening don’t ya

it's amazing how drama seeking changes whence one owns the responsibility, huh

yup... that's been a glaring aspect. don't usually get something on the EC while the west is plummeting - this 12z Euro run may be onto something. i mentioned earlier that a contraction s is possible but ...heh, not sensing much acknowledgement. wonder why haha

yeah ...and so their flyin' around cold addled with their stingers stuck projected infinitum, too

impressive to see a 27 F recovery by 11am ... That's a lot. Might be the most explosive diurnal turn around (rate of change) we've seen in some time. We could make 60, which put this in contention for biggest spread, too.

No it isn't; complete conspiracy

Meh... this is how the hemisphere seasonally sheds its therms, though. I.e, longer nights, ideal radiative transfer into free space. Then, with ensuing diurnal insolation being insufficient to add as much energy as the energy that is lost, there is a net cooling in the ambient space. This principle makes me less objectively willing to call anything fake. I get what that means ... I guess I just don't agree in belittling it. My druthers aside, these "fake cold" nights take their toll. More of them as the sun slopes deeper by day, and the nights get yet longer and longer; the cold battery of the winter hemisphere is gaining charge. More proficiently N than S, of course, until the build up becomes significant.

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models. The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that. The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved.

This was/is always likely to be nothing more than a climo nor'easter. Pretty much just an autumnal raw rainy time of it, swept along by manageable wind. Less than very remarkable in either case. That should be the baseline expectation with this thing. Yeah, that allows a realistic expectation that someone, some how might over-achieve in either measure, but any observation would be the exceptions to the rule. I still wonder if at the last minute ... a bit of a S contraction in late modeling with less push all the way up. I'm not forecasting that, but I'd be leery of that happening. Either way, the high pressure that's currently parked and giving cause to the current shot across the bow air mass, is retreating due east. SO... it may result less d-drip dose potency than wanted, but your getting a raw east wind whether this thing does that weird oblong thrust up the coast or not. One aspect I'm noticing is just how weak this whole structure is in the H500 evolution. 35 kt jet at 500 mb, parallel offshore the EC doesn't typically inspire all that much. The low pressure is objectively not modeled much lower than 1000 mb - some guidance as low a 995 but the average is higher than that. Even though I said 'climate nor'easter' above, the former is in fact weaker than a climate nor'easter. I'm only giving it that much in deference to that structural anomaly these guidance insist will take place; a bit of an anomalous polarward expansion around the N wall of the cyclone basin.