Typhoon Tip

Yeah Ray I’m a little suspicious of the back off in the local QPF with the NAM actually being closer, while at consistent relative intensity/deep layer structural aspects I’ve seen this before where a model just blanks out a quadrant. It’s not usually real… If the 06z pulls the same track and intensity, I’d be surprised if it didn’t repaint larger QPF up here.

This storm is not gonna stall and gravy snow for 20 inches after the fact ‘case anybody is wondering if this is gonna match that unless the modeling changes

I'm just speaking to the reactionary crowd song. "As though" - that's how they're sounding. I saw GFS S followed x too, y too posts ... it's nerviness controlling people's reaction without being analytic about what they are seeing. Hence the "if" I don't really care honestly. Folks will engage how they want. I'm just offering that observation - take it or leave it. But the 12z and the 18z as I demoed above are utterly meaninglessly different at 42 hours. Ferocious combination of blinding blown choking snow rate hurled along by possible grid contending wind gusts. Good luck

There was/is a limit to how much this surface reflection and it's integration with the mid level could actually migrate NW and we're probably just bouncing now along that limit

If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization. That said, this looks like noise to me is not alleviating any concern over this from 12z

paranoid dopa addicts

Completely agreed here. I mentioned this either last night or the night before, when the ensemble means were down to 522 dm at 84 to 90 hours lead! Historic events are typically not seen in the mid range. More often than not - though yes there are rare exceptions - your plotting a major with very impressive parametrics, and then it goes out of control almost during now cast and bests even the outlooks. 1993 and 'Sandy' are examples of notable exceptions. This one has been suggesting history for since about 48 hours ago, when it was just one or two outliers going bonkers. Now it seems there are less conservative model visions than going the other way. So I dunno. going to be an interesting event

Met buddy of mine was telling me that the ECM was showing more QPF over Pennsylvania back west of the main development also… Maybe a sign that somebody has more northwest correction

Reminds me of 1997 convective snow hosing only tunneling through a colder atmosphere

same over here

Wanna fire up a thread for the 9-15"er on Friday? LOL

Pretty much. Yes. The important underlying concept is "restoring" ... Any anomaly is in an unstable state; nature is always trying to restore back to a state of entropy, or inaction. Thus, action will occur to bring it back to a state of inaction. That is occurring always, in perpetuo, at all scales. So, when you have an anomaly, relative to another anomaly ...like this week, like -PNA, inside of which there is a +d(PNA) on the other of multiple SD... the -PNA may blind the advent of an arena, within which favors the production of a restoring event. All storms are restoring events. It's just a matter of how the restoration goes about finding balance. Global scaled indices, don't produce storms... per se. But, they are indicators for arenas/temporally boundary regimes that are conducive to needing restoration. If you get this .. you can immediately intuitively gather that when nesting anomalies within other anomalies, the complexity gets pretty bad pretty quickly. We have to determine the roots, and balance those.

Dude... ha. no shit but excluding the SW zones/NY megalopolis, that SNE snow layout is about as close to a twin to 1978 Feb as I've seen. This system is no analog but I just find that interesting.

Agreed... despite my campaigning for NW positions in all this, I have also made it clear that SE positions are 'within the cone of uncertainty' as that vamp goes. I mean they can happen in this. There's compelling reason to see NW ... maybe helluva now-casting opportunity, too, but that doesn't mean things will do that. Anyway, should the EC/RGEM prevail, it is what it is. Not impossible. I wills say though, despite the over night runs seemingly halting the NW corrections? That may have only been a relaxation. These globals in a minute are going to be interesting to compare against the higher res west corrections we just witnessed. Right? wow. And the RGEM did in fact just tick NW so.. mm... it's still in the air a bit .

I've also upgraded my home sys and run Windows 11 these days - which I don't like for other reason..ha. I seem to have less issue with Firefox - which also was pretty bad back in the day. I may check out Brave and see. I need to be able to turn off trajectories tho. And I'll never use Google - so if Brave is affiliated with that engine I'd probably defer.