Typhoon Tip

yeah no that's the one. 2010... meh, 2013 .. 2010 ...it's all one big blur

We had a weird Nor'easter coastal in that era ... 2013 or so, whence NE Ma and SE Nh suffered a tropospheric fold event ... unusual because that typically happens on the SW/underside where the stinger is identified on sat and rad. This was in the CCB tube; there were like 70 mph wind gusts doing a lot of power line and tree pruning work .... it was all rain tho. Late February too - man... a CCB with a tropospheric fold embedded - magine if that were snow? heh, probably couldn't

I wouldn't know anything about Accuweather bias, nor their forecast philosophies ... but a pathway to a low snow turn out whilst normal temp for our region could be related to an anomalously warm mid level plague - which in fact, we don't exactly live and breath in an Earth era that's short of reasons to see something like that occurring. just sayn I'm not forecasting that but Devil's advocate.

It gets easier to stagnate the diurnal temperature range in October ... particularly so once in the solar minimum, Nov 8 and beyond. The sloping sun is oblique to cloud coverage and that's not very efficient radiative-thermal modulation with that low incidence.

Kerry Emanuel, el al, MIT describe the Polar Low phenomenon in a paper titled, "Polar Lows as Arctic Hurricanes" The abstract alone is geek's one-eyed monster worthy stuff ... "Satellite observations of the polar oceans have revealed the presence of small, intense vortices that often resemble hurricanes, having clear central eyes surrounded by deep convective clouds. Recent aircraft and drop sonde data also show that these storms, like hurricanes, occur within deep moist adiabatic atmospheres and possess warm cores...." ( oh baby; don't forget the step children) I recall back in 2002, the GGEM of that era had a propensity for fusing, or threatening to do so, CAG originating TC ejecta up along the barolcinic wall east of strong +PNAP trough amplifications ( ... that's code for Mr Margrave's chart up there in this thread...). Anyway, Sandy alllllmost succeeded, but I wonder if Sandy teaches us, before ever observing the Sci Fi hyper bomb to best all fantasies, just how hard it is to actually get that to happen. Purely statistical occurrence, Sandy was something like a 1::500 year eturn rate ... does that grossly mean a purer performing phase is 1:1000? ...10,000? But that excerpt from Kerry's paper above, does lend some intrigue. If the thermodynamics in the tropical cyclone are some how comparable in the internal engine of the arctic variant, is it ever possible to go directly from a TC end of the spectrum right to the arctic end, in some kind of fantastic transition event? It may be one of those deals where it is mathematically possible, but practically so improbable due to everything that has to happen right in precise non-negative interfering order, that it is too unlikely to ever actually be observed. Still ... man. How would that look... and would it be mathematically possible to constrain George from blowing a gasket if that was like in the model movies (now that would be bombogenesis). Either way, that above is not really that. It's not cold enough... What that would do is just transition, albeit rapidly, from a TC into either an ETC. Or, it gets sheared and pulled apart like a star wondering too close to black hole ...getting absorbed into an ongoing ETC genesis.

I was wondering if that's an artifact of the pattern changing in and of itself, or seasonal forced reconstruction - so to speak There's probably no difference there. So long as the pattern changes.. But the flow behavior in the modeling cinemas looks more charged, sped up with wave propagations that have real gradient. It's come on sort of sneaky over the last week, but now is much more coherent and raging going forward. Heh. It's almost like it's not so much a "dry to wet" pattern change, as it is a wholesale systemic change where getting more rain is intrinsic. Being that it is October and no longer July well...

Not sure I agree here... We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one. Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency. Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them. Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection. But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched. The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen. But it's still falling

Climo nor'easter in the end... That's only by impact too - most coastal storms don't emerge the way this one did, with such torpid H500 evolution amid what looks like a spaghetti plot of isopleths.

At least we got a decent Saturday ( recently ...), because this, this day is why I don't believe New England is worth it in the long run. I just find this to be more loathsome than any so-called top 10 day is lovely. There can never be equality in a weather solvency becuase bad vs good? the bad is always that much worse. Anyway ... I'd lost track of how many proverbial top 10 days we'd had since mid summer. Eventually ... some sort of justice ( seeing as New England is clearly persecuted for ever experiencing weather joy ) was going to come calling. This, here on this day and as evidenced in this satellite shit show below, is the ass of the judge hangin' over us ... midway through a colonoscopy prep

It's CNN so tfwiw but .. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/13/climate/tipping-points-coral-reef-ice-amoc

If that happens the entire Pacific oceanic heat wave it’s called ..,east of the dateline is going to be eradicated at a record rate. That’s unlikely though

It’s real and you know why it’s happening don’t ya

it's amazing how drama seeking changes whence one owns the responsibility, huh

yup... that's been a glaring aspect. don't usually get something on the EC while the west is plummeting - this 12z Euro run may be onto something. i mentioned earlier that a contraction s is possible but ...heh, not sensing much acknowledgement. wonder why haha