Typhoon Tip

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs

I don't even observe much of a digging trough... This was weakly fed really. The heights just cored out from internal processes more so - though 'some 'thing of a trigger aided. But it seemed to go disproportionately deeper relative to what it started out with, after the fact, giving it an allusion of some spontaneity to it. I suggested the other day there's a transitive/non-linear forcing coming from the large scale - by definition ..that's not always exposed to convention observation techniques. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon as an analogy. Anyway, it may be too early to claim failure on coverage. The guidance blend really has this maximizing tonight, with 988 -ish mb low approaching from the S; with 1030mb high pivoting E over top while that happens... likely lays in a pretty significant llv jet axis and given that low gets to ISP it's probably going to be pretty nasty over E CT/RI/E Mass per the course.

this next Wed - Sat looking increasingly WAR -like in the GFS's recent guidance... 00z, 06z and 12z runs GGEM's sort of coming around. Euro thinks ala carte mid November

I did not lol ... 12z GFS looks even warmer... By that, just less obstructed in general. 570+ DM thickness both Thu and Fri, with 582 non-hydrostatic isohypsis situate NW of ALB ... It's actually looking more more WAR-like

under one of those Texas Panhandle stationary super cells

Does seem like the lower tropospheric foot of the cyclone's currently snipped off the warm front and drifting just by impression of satellite.

You know ...there are certain things the NAM is good at - though they seldom if ever opportune to showcase for this forum. Namely, 'convective initiation' Another thing, I really like looking at the FOUS grid before winter storms. I know it's error and idiosyncratics. I apply those second nature on the fly and find those numerical aspects to be hugely useful for interpolating weather aspects. So it will be missed. I'm not trying to defend it's synoptic horror show ...particularly beyond 48 hours, no. But when this model goes away, there will be no FOUS gridded product from these other models to be acquainted with.

Correct did that at 06 z too. Looks like there's a low out there ~ 995 mb, replete with a bent back warm front and dangling cold boundary, yet the NAM-aramadingdong thinks it's a 985 Cat 1 hurricane.

There's irony this hour ... because while I essentially agree that this was never tropical this, that, nor the other d-drip worthy ...the NAM is actually attempting to perform one of the most rapid conversions to purer tropical core and even RI cycling than has ever been observed or even thought plausible in the Terran physical manifold. LOL

Broadly conceptualizing ... Baroclinic systems expand there influence due to frontal synoptic forcing... and temperature gradient related mechanics. Barotropic tropical systems are by physics drawn to core ... this thing's going for Category 3 intensity with that NAM look there - probably a erroneous solution.

Yeah, the NAM's pretty much going 90th percentile full profile conversion straight to a tropical entity with that solution As such, it's contracting

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted. I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days. Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal. not -1 ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational. 570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way. I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long. We can definitely still get it done.

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance, CMC/GFS/EURO All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat. Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

I dunno, was there one scheduled? ha It prompted me to look.. I hadn't been paying attention because of this thing in the foreground but Wed thru Sat this next week look pretty mild? Not sure if that will qualify as a torch, per se. There are differing subjective opinions on what that entails ...but recent GFS runs have 570+ dm thickness centered on a week from today. With 564 to 570 Wed, Thu and Sat .. All four days with general W wind. Some frontal entanglement but looks weak with very little actual CAA Fwiw. The Euro's bit more aggressive with a cold front on Friday but still doing so amid a warm anomaly in the ambience doesn't send a very chilly vibe. 570+ before the front, 562 behind with WNW isn't the same as having a high pressure parked N imparting days of chilly ENE like this week.

It's almost like a TUTT on steroids in some ways.