mitchnick

Time to watch is the rising back up after 12/28.

Last night's Euro had a very similar scenario, but a few days later and kept the bulk of the system to our south. Close enough, however, to qualify as a match in my weenie manual! Lol

Fwiw, 6z AIGFS has essentially the same threat as the Gfs, just a bit more "realistic"?

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern.

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary.

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210 The other threat starting at 288hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288 Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

We just need to steal a small and medium event before a decent pattern returns.

Thanks. How about the Gefs and Eps if you have them handy?

Congrats. Have you retired yet?

6z Gfs wants to ruin Christmas with zr/ip. It'll probably keep pushing cold south until Chill wins again. Lol

Gfs is one constipated mess right after Christmas.

Ggem says mix for us.

Saw that. We need that trough NW of Oregon to get pinched off and shoved to the west allowing the ridges in western Alaska and the American SW to link.