mitchnick

Although I'm usually optimistic, I don't like what I'm seeing at all. Yeah, something could pop up, but the advertised pattern looks to me like a different take on cold and dry and there are no single legit threats showing up on the ensembles causing mean snowfall progs to respond. Until some one identifiable threat appears, I think it's safe to bet on nothing. How I hope that changes.

This system has reverted back to the old days of Niñas when the snow/freezing line slowly crept north as we got closer to the event. Unlike the snows in VA earlier in the month that never really bugged much at all from several days out.

All ensemble snowfall imby are horrendous with 1-2". I know they aren't accurate, but usually because they are too high! That's the problem! Lol

Jma scores coups sometimes. I wouldn't call it a joke, but it's not a consistent top performer.

Since the scale explanation mentions "significance ", I've just figured there was nothing compelling warm or cold, so I figure near normal.

Talk to Weather53.

It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.

No problems imho.

I'm thinking maybe the numbers they're feeding into the equation are prefaced with these: $.

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

That was a Niño. This is a Niña.

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

I hope not for your sake as well.

And a Merry Christmas to you!