mitchnick

Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.

I'm using the World Climate website. It's been mentioned by Gawx many times it's lower than the site you posted. Either site is fine if you're using it for relative changes compared to historical values, which is is all I'm doing.

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months.

Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.

Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.

Take that @GaWx

I like that the trough is centered further west than the Lakes because it "should" open up the Gulf and Atlantic for overrunning while remaining cold enough for many for snow/frozen chances. If the trough was over the Lakes, it's cold/dry city outside that LES beneficiaries.

Wxmodels DJF 500mb looks better than the free graphics from the Euro site.

Euro seasonal for December from MA forum.

February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)

Yeah. I suspect the new forecast came in cooler thanks to what is showing up in the extended forecasts for December. Unless we get lucky with the strat as you said, the Niña totally collapses into something like a weak Niño, or just plain luck, I'm already brushing up on my 4-letter word vocabulary for February.

Comparison to this year's 500mb anomaly forecast for DJF and last year (bottom)

Here's a link to all the seasonal Euro if interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.

Updated Euro seasonal out. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.