mitchnick

Another slight improvement, this time the Ukie ensembles, but far from a hit near either metro area.

18z GEM. Top link to 500mb at 84hrs and bottom is precip same time. Slight improvement but hard to say where it would go from there. Other parameters are found in the drop down to the right of rhe word MAP. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084 https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

Well, it's working.

We oughta' give up more often.

No, to the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian (for its last 2 or 3 runs.)

Last 4 gfs runs. Keep an eye on the system north of the Dakotas and how the closer it gets, the further east our storm goes

Gotta get home! They don't plow snow down there very well. Lol

This place is nice and a shorter trip by an hour +. It's got a decent restaurant for hotel food, including a great breakfast buffet, and close (within walking distance) to other restaurants too. https://hiltongardeninn.bookonline.com/hotel/hilton-garden-inn-outer-banks-kitty-hawk?id2=127615453378&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=14388994732&gbraid=0AAAAABov2PZhb7oN0KEuhIv9VsotO2Q5Q&gclid=Cj0KCQiAhOfLBhCCARIsAJPiopPfC_Fxoni12uQ9_oO7O_MVFtOK11mhIAuqbrNFfuKtEo8LUyZhQ48aAmUpEALw_wcB

Way ots

And I would venture to say that it's because of the historic cold pressing that it is south. There are a few of our major snowstorms that were proceeded by historic cold, but 90%+ were not as overwhelming as this air mass.

Helluva block

If you run this 500mb vort prog in motion you can see around the Great Lakes the trough pushing a ridge overtop that's shoving our system SE. I think this is fairly representative of all the models. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026012812&fh=1

Yeah...you still rub me the wrong way though!

In northern AA County, every once and a while little would would start to fall steadily, then dwindle to flurries, only to rub salt in the wound.

And therein lies the rub.