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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    Gawx did research on early season warmings and found the only closest matches to this year were 16/17, 79/80 & 09/10, with the last 2 the only Niños. So it may be indicative of future favorable warmings, but that's weenie speculation at this point.
  2. mitchnick
    Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol
  3. mitchnick
    It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.
  4. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  5. mitchnick
    It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.
  6. mitchnick
    JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread.
  7. mitchnick
  8. mitchnick
    Looks like you were on the wrong side of the stationary front all month.
  9. mitchnick
    He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7".
  10. mitchnick
    As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000
  11. mitchnick
    Residual cold. Look how far the heights are off the coast matching the low anomaly.
  12. mitchnick
    Disagree. That post had the trough moving east by the arrows. It's not moving east. And to say the eastward end is just smoothing out is your interpretation.
  13. mitchnick
    You may want to reconsider.
  14. mitchnick
    Since I don't have an X account, you should probably give them this link because that run, when put in motion, clearly shows that trough off the west coast retrograding WEST, NOT EAST, in the frames leading up to that 360hr map they posted. Agenda, agenda....that's all I see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101900&fh=18
  15. mitchnick
    You said it was - in 1998. I posted January-March 1998. That map is December, 1997-February 1998. That's not 1998.
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