mitchnick

18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.

Looks like my days posting in this forum will be over if that comes close to verifying.

Kuchera for better or worse.

A weak p.o.s. is on the table imho. Without a stronger higher, the cold air will give up on the fight easier and we'll lose lift. So I'm not feeling locked in on any scenario at this point.

Personally feel that'll be the trend in keeping with the season. How far, who knows. Still think we're all in the game, but odds do favor N & W like 80-90% of all snow chances around here.

Icon isn't great, but it has creeped further south making it a lot closer than 0z and 6z.

We'll take anything we can get.

Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.

Ukie is a light event, but I didn't bother to look how it got there.

I saw that, but there's always one that clings on to a fantasy. That said, still time to salvage something, but we better start seeing hints of our salvation sooner than later.

Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.

Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.

That's what we've seen this summer and fall. I'd run with it until proven wrong.

Shut up and embrace the technology!