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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough. However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.
  2. mitchnick
    I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I thought Game On Baby!!
  3. mitchnick
    Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho.
  4. mitchnick
    Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC. Cfs2 temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  5. mitchnick
    Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.
  6. mitchnick
    Do you know exactly what that scale represents? Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period.
  7. mitchnick
    When you get older Chuck, you'll start to appreciate the near-dementia wisdom of age. Lol
  8. mitchnick
    I've never denied being the eternal optimist, fairly or unfairly. Lol
  9. mitchnick
    I'll take it in a heartbeat.
  10. mitchnick
    Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. Lol The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an average for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live. P.s. I've already said in the other forum this winter will likely be AN. The question is, obviously, by how much.
  11. mitchnick
    There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.
  13. mitchnick
    Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.
  14. mitchnick
    We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.
  15. mitchnick
    The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.
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