mitchnick

That's a snowy run. Love to see the maps.

Kuchera better and makes sense with higher ratios to start.

Well if it's light with precip and precip does provide some dynamic cooling, that might rectify the desparity between it and the models that changeover 1 or 2 hours later. But what do I know, I'm just trying to get a head start in life post retirement.

My sister, half way between Richmond and Williamsburg, is currently getting rimed flakes (mini snowballs as she described them.) Her current NWS forecast is for snow to start before 3am tonight with no mention of precip during the day today. Anyway, radar is all lit up over VA moving west to east with some dark echoes over her in SE VA. Does seem ahead of schedule. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

No GGEM or RGEM, but the Geps updated and here's it's snowfall. Not bad folks. EDIT: Obviously includes sleet at 10:1

They're a violent bunch.

Euro Ai fwiw

Problem I'm seeing on all the worst modeling is that the primary is in TN, the models show weak low pressure off the coast, but a refusal of the primary to die and transfer it's energy to the coastal. Instead, the primary survives, pumping in warm air aloft as it slowly moves east, and once it makes to the coast it dumps on ENE and our precip has shut off.

Don't know. Sorry.

It is. Here's the Rap currently updating out to 5pm

Then there's always the FV3.

Gfs snowfall is around twice of Nams. If that's a fold, I'll take it every day.

Gfs laughs at Nams