mitchnick

With 3.4 at -.7C and underwater temps at -2c+, it wouldn't fade too fast imho. But it would hopefully end the typical, overwhelming Niña crap we often see in winter. In any event, if I had a choice, I'd roll the dice with what the Eps is showing.

Nah, he just stopped taking his meds.

Today’s Eps again says bye-bye to the Niña by Christmas with a serious westerly wind burst anomaly at 850mb.

Not one model had BWI BN for November, though the Cansips was the closest while still being a bit AN. Yet, thru yesterday, BWI is -.1. After this week's cold shot, BN for the month is a virtual guarantee. So eff the back and forth of the models because this Fall has been finding a way to squash threatened warm-ups into average or below. THAT'S what's important imho.

Nobody knows with any certainty, just like any other year, but most there speak with way too much certainty imho. The only person who is consistently decent with seasonal forecasting year in and year out is Raindancewx. His forecast for our neck of the woods is slightly BN. He doesn't rely on modeling. I do! Lol I say go with the Cansips and forget the daily back and forth.

It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening.

Cansips forecast for November has been very good. That's the seasonal I'm riding until it fails.

In light of the current weak Niña numbers, if correct, today's progged 850 wind anomalies off the Eps should spell the demise of the Niña before the end of December.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.

If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I know you know this!