mitchnick

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

Good luck. Other than a couple of quick pinches with the needles, you'll feel nothing. I say this confidently having had it done a few times and coming from a family of dentists.

Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.

Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?

I think you just wasted a perfectly good ALEET for nothing.

Nah....alcohol

Yikes at the cold at the end of the Gfs run.

Oh yeah...great start too! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512300000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601120000