mitchnick

I didn't think I was going crazy. BWI reported no snow in 10/02...not even a trace. For BWI, snow in November is a good (but not guaranteed since nothing in weather ever is) sign, but not October.

I was camping at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive in October, 1979 when we woke up to thunder, lightning and rain that quickly turned to sleet then snow. We literally barely made it out in time before they closed Skyline Drive (we were in Sperryville when we heard it was just closed.) The ridge tops quickly accumulated 3"+ with heavy snow still falling making driving an absolute nightmare. Still wonder to this day how my friend's 1970 Ford Torino, an absolute boat with rear wheel drive, made it up and down the hills. By the time we made it to Rt. 211 (I think that's 211 that takes you to Sperryville), it was rain with still some thunder. Long story to simply confirm that I believe your map! Lol

His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed.

I figured the mts must have done better, but not living here then I didn't know for certain. I'm not worried about the warming planet if we have the right pattern/track. 50+ years ago (as in the early and mid 70's) were horrendous with many snow to ip or mainly zr/ip storms. The only 6"+ storm I recall during that period was in 12/73, and that switched over to ip/zr before ending south of BWI. It wasn't until the NE blizzard in early 2/78 that BWI got close to a 10" snowfall. Of all things, it was the mother of all Miller B's too. But I agree 100% with your earlier post that it's the -PDO state that's killing us. I do think, however, this Niño is going to shake things up in the Pacific and would expect a shift away from a -PDO in the means very soon, as in next year or the year after.

No October snow. I remain a firm believer it does not help the winter cause. Coastal storms? Sure. The more the merrier.

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

A measly .4" yesterday and today. Just enough to wreck a weekend.

Keep in mind that if you're more interested in winter weather, a snapshot of June's Enso is generally irrelevant.

This weather sux imho.

I was surprised to see as well how much the Conus, especially east of the Rockies, stays at or BN for weeks after that week. And the AN is not excessive. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202609260000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610050000

5-day Eps average at the end of last night's run agrees.

That cam just died. The one in Kitty Hawk works. https://surfchex.com/cams/kitty-hawk-nc/

That cam just died. Lol Here's Kitty Hawk, NC up the beach a few miles.. https://surfchex.com/cams/kitty-hawk-nc/

N.C. feeling it already. https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

Coming to a beach near you. Angry! https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/