mitchnick
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Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.
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It breaks the DT rule with a closed 5H low west of the Mississippi.
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End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.
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Gfs has never worked.
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Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.
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The kind of pattern that supports the operational storm.
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Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately.
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Eps really lit up.
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4.0-8.0
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Eps, as usual, are a miss tonthe north for the 8th/9th.
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Or maybe just regurgitating the Euro. Lol
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I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12
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That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.
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6z was even better
