SomeguyfromTakomaPark

OH wow a perfect blizzard lol......that would be nice.

Crazy Uncle looks like it smoked the good stuff at 12z. The ptype shows snow way down SW of DC at 18z. Way different look. Would be much snowier.

CMC looks nice and thumpy. 8 inches for DC and a foot for the favored spots NW.

When does the GFS fold like a cheap suit and show 4 inches for dc? 18z or 0z?

06z run, it's kinda the boom scenario model for us right now. Big dumping of heavy snow before the transition.

RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z. If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.

Yeah I think it’s just the ptype algorithm from the vendor, no meteorologists are forecasting much IP for dc.

People here in dc are so confused, my co worker INSISTS Richmond is getting two feet. People here think we’re getting 12-18 inches in dc.

Most of our mixing events over the years are snow to sleet to rain to 40+ degrees. This is a pretty cool and unique event with a very anomalous arctic airmass. The fact that plain rain isn’t even in the discussion is cool. Even if we “only” get 4-5 inches in dc and then ice and then arctic cold it’s still going to be awesome. True deep winter stuff coming.

I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.

6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it!

I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct.

Looks like noise level stuff. Same general idea all over.

NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.

For dc Euro looks like about 0.8 qpf as snow, and then 0.6 qpf as sleet. 6-10 of snow and a thick layer of sleet, that’ll be a high impact event if it verifies.