SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Close enough to keep me interested, that's for sure. Yesterday I was talking about punting this window but today has got me back interested.

GFS does look like it wants to spin something up in the Gulf around hour 170....if the trough goes negative after that could be game on.

Yeah, hopefully we can get what the ICON is showing! Perfectly timed phasing and trough axis that results in us being just cold enough to snow.

12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does.

It's still early but I feel like it's probably time to punt the Jan 15 window. I guess if a storm perfectly bombed out at our latitude we could maybe get a paste bomb but its like 40 degrees in Montreal during the window. Not a good sign when the freezing line is north of the Adirondacks.

With this kind of setup, marginal air, we need everything to break just right with the phasing and even if it does it might just favor the NW areas. With that in mind it's good to keep expectations very in check. After the period for this potential storm it looks like most ensembles have us returning to seasonal or cooler than average temps, perhaps we get a wave then as well.

Pretty decent agreement between ICON, GFS, and CMC of some vorts flying around the *could* get us a coastal storm. The problem is coming outta our torch there isn't much cold around.

@dailylurker your pics are all over my fb via Justin berk.

We need a threat so badly. Long range thread is mayhem.

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around. Just need to time something up. What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days. But we all know how good models are from that far out. If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast. It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms. When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull.

Yeah as others have noted if every op run doesn’t show an HECS for their backyard they panic, but yeah we have the pattern in good shape going into prime climo so let’s just see if we can something to hit.

I like the potential around day 10 on the EPS, 0z euro op close to something too.

Last year the EPS busted so hard on that February storm and that was like 5 days out, I gotta get something to within like 2-3 days to feel any level of confidence.

The last few years we have seen the good looks on the models like this and they’ve been head fakes, or they disappear after brief non producing period. Let’s see if we can actually cash one in.

We don’t sweat thermals on 12 day away fantasy storms anyway, get the pattern right, get a storm. First things first.