SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.

Imagine we actually get the euro to trend back to something better? Has that ever happened with a mix event? Trends back colder towards game time.

I’ll sell my soul for the GFS man it is pretty

In a mixing event for our area the best thing to do is just take the guidance with the fastest flip. It usually ends up being right. GFS is smoking the good stuff.

lol gfs gonna keep showing this and then fold like a cheap suit 8 hours before the event

Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.

SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.

Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.

Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad.

That's one thing I love not seeing on the models. The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything. In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south.

Yeah, agree. We should be able to get a warning level snow even if the north creep continues. Which is great! We go years without warning level snows...

Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....

AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless.

Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio! Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.