earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models continue to indicate a higher than normal likelihood of a significant and anomalous coastal storm developing early next week near the East Coast. Considerable questions remain regarding the exact evolution of the storm system. Originating in the Eastern Pacific, an upper level low will amplify and drive the development of a ridge on the west coast of the United States. However brief it's amplitude may be, the feature itself is responsible for the heightened chance of east coast cyclogenesis. A significant disturbance dropping southward from Western Canada into the Central United States on the nose of an extremely impressive mid and upper level jet streak will move on the eastern periphery of this ridge. The exact details and nuances regarding these two features will have major implications on the eventual outcome in terms of sensible weather. Some things to keep in mind: - This has been a progressive Pacific pattern of late but not one which has featured a ton of closed upper level lows. Comparisons to previous storms will get you nowhere. - Models will immensely struggle with handling such a strong and energetic jet streak and shortwave surging south from western Canada. These features can often end up stronger and more energetic than forecast. - The exact interactions and potential phasing over the MS River Valley remains 120 hours out and so hanging your hat on individual models or ensemble runs will give you indigestion. Monitor trends regarding the aforementioned important features to save your sanity. - It is almost imperative for us that the phase occurs in time and with enough amplitude to allow the surface low to tuck northwestward toward the SC and GA coast. That will allow for a much more favorable jet structure once the storm reaches our area. This has been a fun winter, hoping we can end it with a bang.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models continue to indicate a higher than normal likelihood of a significant and anomalous coastal storm developing early next week near the East Coast. Considerable questions remain regarding the exact evolution of the storm system. Originating in the Eastern Pacific, an upper level low will amplify and drive the development of a ridge on the west coast of the United States. However brief it's amplitude may be, the feature itself is responsible for the heightened chance of east coast cyclogenesis. A significant disturbance dropping southward from Western Canada into the Central United States on the nose of an extremely impressive mid and upper level jet streak will move on the eastern periphery of this ridge. The exact details and nuances regarding these two features will have major implications on the eventual outcome in terms of sensible weather. Some things to keep in mind: - This has been a progressive Pacific pattern of late but not one which has featured a ton of closed upper level lows. Comparisons to previous storms will get you nowhere. - Models will immensely struggle with handling such a strong and energetic jet streak and shortwave surging south from western Canada. These features can often end up stronger and more energetic than forecast. - The exact interactions and potential phasing over the MS River Valley remains 120 hours out and so hanging your hat on individual models or ensemble runs will give you indigestion. Monitor trends regarding the aforementioned important features to save your sanity. - It is almost imperative for us that the phase occurs in time and with enough amplitude to allow the surface low to tuck northwestward toward the SC and GA coast. That will allow for a much more favorable jet structure once the storm reaches our area. This has been a fun winter, hoping we can end it with a bang.. Good post Earth...hopefully this thread changes up our luck from the past few runs....W.e happens with this storm im looking forward to your yearly post about what to expect on an average day during severe weather season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Just like I said the models would begin to shift east.. or come into alignment. Which they are. Said it 2 days ago. This is gonna stay just offshore I believe. What is your meteorological reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is your meteorological reasoning for this? Don't question him, he has "Hurr_Tracker" in his name... no need to provide any basis for opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hour 84 on the 18z NAM will make you tear your hair out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is your meteorological reasoning for this? Whatever it may be, he loves saying "I told you so", he did this on liveweatherblogs also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is your meteorological reasoning for this? First off, With the past two storms, yes they are not completely like this evolution (Miller A) But it seems that they showed big solutions, then starting at Day4 began to slowly come together. And I see that happening for the most part. Also, the pattern is pretty progressive still, and without a temporary block, things won't slow down enough to let the phase happen earlier. The trough seems to not want to go negative early for it to come to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is your meteorological reasoning for this? lol. I love when you call these statements out. Thumbs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 First off, With the past two storms, yes they are not completely like this evolution (Miller A) But it seems that they showed big solutions, then starting at Day4 began to slowly come together. And I see that happening for the most part. Also, the pattern is pretty progressive still, and without a temporary block, things won't slow down enough to let the phase happen earlier. The trough seems to not want to go negative early for it to come to the coast. In regard to the first comment, you're playing a dangerous game called "modelology" and it will get you in trouble. No two storms are similar, and even especially in this case the patterns are wildly dissimilar. The pattern is not overly progressive if you ask me, in fact it's quite anomalous with the big ULL in the Pac. If you're looking for a huge block this year is not the year to find it..but you can still get major amplification without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Don't question him, he has "Hurr_Tracker" in his name... no need to provide any basis for opinions. I'm all for some meteorological discussion, learning and conversation. Definitive statements without meteorological backing, I think are a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I know, don't bash me, but the NAM @ 84 hours looks fairly similar to rest of 12z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If only the 84 hour NAM wasn't complete garbage. It almost wants to close off the ULL over the Pacific and has two separate arctic shortwaves phasing in with one southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 First off, With the past two storms, yes they are not completely like this evolution (Miller A) But it seems that they showed big solutions, then starting at Day4 began to slowly come together. And I see that happening for the most part. Also, the pattern is pretty progressive still, and without a temporary block, things won't slow down enough to let the phase happen earlier. The trough seems to not want to go negative early for it to come to the coast. With due respect, you (and we) have no clue what the trough is gonna want to do until we know what the phasing looks like near the Mississippi Valley. It will have a direct effect on the jet & where it slingshots this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 First off, With the past two storms, yes they are not completely like this evolution (Miller A) But it seems that they showed big solutions, then starting at Day4 began to slowly come together. And I see that happening for the most part. Also, the pattern is pretty progressive still, and without a temporary block, things won't slow down enough to let the phase happen earlier. The trough seems to not want to go negative early for it to come to the coast. Then say that, not "I told you guys models would trend East today"....your post here is worthwhile to the forum, that statement isn;t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I know, don't bash me, but the NAM @ 84 hours looks fairly similar to rest of 12z guidance If you're going to talk about the North American Mesoscale model at least point out the fact that it's going for a triple phaser here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Just like I said the models would begin to shift east.. or come into alignment. Which they are. Said it 2 days ago. This is gonna stay just offshore I believe. Posts like this will probably get you a suspension if you keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If only the 84 hour NAM wasn't complete garbage. It almost wants to close off the ULL over the Pacific and has two separate arctic shortwaves phasing in with one southern stream wave. You and I always differ on our model observations lol...To me the NAM looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm all for some meteorological discussion, learning and conversation. Definitive statements without meteorological backing, I think are a waste. many of us here never took a course in meteorology in our lives - I think since you have taken many courses you should just tell us how and why we are wrong when we make statements that are wrong in your opinion - then we can learn something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If you're going to talk about the North American Mesoscale model at least point out the fact that it's going for a triple phaser here this run. What? It looks almost identical to the 12z GFS. Except it has a stronger vort at the base of the trough. Wait until 18z DGEX comes out I think it'll be out to sea like the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 many of us here never took a course in meteorology in our lives - I think since you have taken many courses you should just tell us how we are wrong when we make statements that are wrong in your opinion Instead of telling people they are wrong my philosophy is to try and understand why the opinion is different and make my differing opinion known including reasoning/ etc. That's the best way to learn I think..saying "you're wrong" doesn't really accomplish much in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 many of us here never took a course in meteorology in our lives - I think since you have taken many courses you should just tell us how and why we are wrong when we make statements that are wrong in your opinion - then we can learn something Earthlight does a great job of explaining his viewpoints, and he does a great job of teaching less experienced posters what to look for. "I always knew this would go east11!!1!!111!1" posts just drag a thread down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Here is hour 84 on the 18z NAM The point is that it's phasing in faster than the GFS. Here is the 12z GFS valid for the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not interested in what the DGEX says, ever Take a look at the 500mb winds and then get back to me. The DGEX is an extension of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Here is hour 84 on the 18z NAM The point is that it's phasing in faster than the GFS. Here is the 12z GFS valid for the same hour. It is possibly slightly improved since it has bit stronger shortwave diving down from Canada compared to the GFS, but I just disagree, and we won't come to an agreement here obviously lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The DGEX is an extension of the NAM But it's not the same model. Yes, the DGEX does attempt to extrapolate an already useless model beyond four days. It can be useful at times. I'm not sure what the NAM would have done with it in this case if it continued on. It doesn't appear to fit the typical mold of being too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is possibly slightly improved since it has bit stronger shortwave diving down from Canada compared to the GFS, but I just disagree, and we won't come to an agreement here obviously lol. If you have a way at looking at the 500mb wind speeds you might see more of what I'm referring too.. The NAM has the 500mb jet streak exploding over the northern plains while the 12z GFS at the same hour is over the Central Plains. What all of this means, I'm not entirely sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 As I see the guidance point to a SLP this deep just E of the BM I am more inclined to think the center will be closer to the coast . Needing the trough axis tugged 100 miles west can just as easily happen as a whiff could . But in late march I like former. We are talking 4.5 days out. Not 48 hours here. which is an eternity in numerical modeling. I doubt this numerical equation has been solved yet. For me only a step left is what's needed not a running leap . So as the modeling had come east I like the UKMET look. Once the surface RAOB s grab this tomorrow on the WC the models could bring this west. I like Chris s point yesterday. We've seen back to back tropical systems here. A foot of snow in November. A decade of anomalous snow ,all we are missing is a late march bomb. So I'm all in. And if I'm wrong. No one gets hurt. Good luck fellow maniacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Refer to what Earthlight said earlier.......Look for trends in the ridge axis out west that needs to be more N-S than NW- SE in order for this storm to curve up the coast. I went to school with that nugget of info. Is the MJO going into favorable territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 These are main problems I see models today and we need to change: 1. Pacific ULL opening up into pieces and breaking down the West Coast ridge.2. Southern low escaping too far east, for the trough to catch it.3. The upper-level phased jet streaks positioned more favorably off the coast. We have all the energy for a bomb. It just coming together a little too far east on models for major impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is possibly slightly improved since it has bit stronger shortwave diving down from Canada compared to the GFS, but I just disagree, and we won't come to an agreement here obviously lol. But... the ridge is also further east on the NAM, which I thought was a negative wrt east coast low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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