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blizzard of 2013 discussion


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#876
Metsfan

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

NYZ078>081-177-179-081730-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH
  LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY
  ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
  INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
 



#877
WintersGrasp

  • 2,153 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... :violin:


Lol I didn't hear that...Did he say that? Well it's probably due to the continuing north east trend

#878
Ericjcrash

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  • Joined December 2, 2010

Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... :violin:

 Wouldn't shock me, but to a lesser extent, precip 1-2 hours away but looks to come in hard, definitely some wasted QPF looking likely. Hopefully its more sleet instead of rain.



#879
patrick05

  • 1,196 posts
  • Joined November 21, 2010

Lol I didn't hear that...Did he say that? Well it's probably due to the continuing north east trend

 

well he just compared the location of the phase from that storm with this one and why 2001 was a bust for us... just surprised to hear it from him though



#880
SirReefTokeAlot

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Lol you guys are relentless over a 6z suit. I guarantee 12z will adjust back to the west



#881
asw

  • 6 posts
  • Joined December 26, 2010

Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are.

#882
tmagan

  • 7,283 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

One observation the gfs initialized at kfrg with a temp of 36 at 6z, the temp was 34. The nam initialized at 34. I would go with the nam temp profile rather than the gfs.

I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance.



#883
WintersGrasp

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Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are.


He should know better than to bring that up before the snow has begun !

#884
Ericjcrash

  • 1,199 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

Lol you guys are relentless over a 6z suit. I guarantee 12z will adjust back to the west

Idk, that's just hypothetical.

 

I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance.

Agreed :weenie:



#885
WIN

  • 67 posts
  • Joined January 25, 2011

Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... :violin:

You are mis stating what he said. His point was that a lot of pieces need to come together for a storm like this to happen. He said that in 2001 it happened up north
This time its happening here

#886
allgame830

  • 397 posts
  • Joined December 16, 2010

Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are.

 

thanks for posting this... I was just about to... he never said that was going to happen but stating how this is the opposite. Guys relax and enjoy the storm!!



#887
WintersGrasp

  • 2,153 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england

#888
mulen

  • 527 posts
  • Joined November 16, 2010

Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature  blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll  take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace



#889
Ericjcrash

  • 1,199 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england

Its not a measure of snow for the 1000X time.



#890
allgame830

  • 397 posts
  • Joined December 16, 2010

the radar really looks insane right now... let this play out



#891
SnoSki14

  • 4,918 posts
  • Joined November 28, 2010

The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now. 



#892
WintersGrasp

  • 2,153 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england
Its not a measure of snow for the 1000X time.


Seriously man ? Yes obviously blizzard is not simply a measure of snow. My statement is saying that most likely Long Island and New England will verify blizzard conditions.

#893
Ericjcrash

  • 1,199 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now. 

Kind of, this is often overstated.



#894
Ericjcrash

  • 1,199 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

Seriously man ? Yes obviously blizzard is not simply a measure of snow. My statement is saying that most likely Long Island and New England will verify blizzard conditions.

I think winds and visibility verifies for most, as far as how much snow we get is different. I agree with Upton.



#895
WintersGrasp

  • 2,153 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now.
Kind of, this is often overstated.


Lol jcrash you are going to turn into the "me" from last night with the negativity LOL

#896
JSantanaNYC

  • 722 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

Base on the radar..gfs is too far east actually.

#897
SirReefTokeAlot

  • R.I.P to my brother, P.O Melvin Santiago

  • 509 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

Wow. The radar looks intense, and it def looks like the NAM. Look at all that energy, when this phases....KABANGA! This is going to take a more west track. I really think the NAM may be correct, just QPF a bit overdone. 



#898
nzucker

  • 8,648 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

I can't believe NYC schools are still open and I have to go to work. Ugh!



#899
riverrat

  • 42 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010

Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature  blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll  take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace


You got the right idea mulen. We've been following these things for too long to twist on model runs at this point. Storm looks healthy, sit back and enjoy! See ya! :)

#900
WintersGrasp

  • 2,153 posts
  • Joined November 14, 2010

06z NAM seems like a possibility for the area....yesterday's runs and 00z were overdone and too far west but 06z could be close as it appears

#901
SirReefTokeAlot

  • R.I.P to my brother, P.O Melvin Santiago

  • 509 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

Base on the radar..gfs is too far east actually.

Thank you JSantana, thank you. I'm a freaking noob weenie myself but hot damn do I know a storm when I see one, and that right there, right down there, is a friggin storm people. This looks like a winter storm version of Sandy with the storm to our west, and the storm to our south. This is going to do it



#902
Ericjcrash

  • 1,199 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

I can't believe NYC schools are still open and I have to go to work. Ugh!

Lots of rain during school hours wouldn't shock me. So eh.



#903
SirReefTokeAlot

  • R.I.P to my brother, P.O Melvin Santiago

  • 509 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

06z NAM seems like a possibility for the area....yesterday's runs and 00z were overdone and too far west but 06z could be close as it appears


00z NAM had the low in the EXACT same spot it's in now, at the EXACT same pressure....It's going the 00z nam route bro

00zNAM 15 hr

nam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 



#904
patrick05

  • 1,196 posts
  • Joined November 21, 2010

a friend out in Shirley just said at least two gas stations are out of gas while a third will probably close later this afternoon... get your gas people!!



#905
Metsfan

  • 693 posts
  • Joined November 18, 2010

I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance.

I don't extrapolate that out. It was just an observation.



#906
asw

  • 6 posts
  • Joined December 26, 2010

He should know better than to bring that up before the snow has begun !



He said people bring that storm up to him all the time, but in this case it will really hit us, and then he talked about how things did not come together for that storm, but did here. He was not suggesting this storm could bust (in fact, he just referred to it as an epic storm). He did not suggest at all that this was like 2001 -- in fact he was saying we should not think this is like 2001.

#907
Jefflaw77

  • 772 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010

craig allen is really downplaying certain aspects of this storm.. I think during the day he may be right, but what happens after nightfall- anything is on the table...



#908
SirReefTokeAlot

  • R.I.P to my brother, P.O Melvin Santiago

  • 509 posts
  • Joined November 17, 2010

Did you guys see my post? The 00z NAM depicts the low to a T 



#909
Sickman

  • The laxative is kicking in

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You are mis stating what he said. His point was that a lot of pieces need to come together for a storm like this to happen. He said that in 2001 it happened up north
This time its happening here

Just mentioning March '01 this close to a possibly historic event makes people dive under their desks for cover. :lol:



#910
PB GFI

  • 5,620 posts
  • Joined December 22, 2011

The majority of the day from NYC east out through Long Island , it may just rain for most of the day light hours  . This system has so much energy that once the center is east of AC we change to heavy snow and tonite its a show

 .

We will lose the accumulations during the day , but will make it up at nite . So if you surge into the mid 30s and your pouring its not a bust . The banding is what will cause the whiteout conditions take place tonite . I think the park and 5 boroughs finish with 10 and mayb more out on Long Island .

However I do now  think 20  prob out of the question for the city .. too much liquid in part 1 of this .

 

Craig Allen sees low 40`s through the NJ shore and Eastern Long Island as they are on an E WIND , and you`re not gona snow until they back around to the NE  . That will happen towards the end of the afternoon .

 

 

 

Think parts of  the Island max out at 15





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