October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, jconsor said:

@vortex95 @jbenedet Would be interested to hear how would you counter Ryan and Tomer Burg's claim that this is merely a warm seclusion with no subtropical characteristics?

Personally I think this is well on its way to being subtropical.  You don't get a burst of convection like that near the center over 25C waters with thicknesses near 580 from upper-level/synoptic forcing alone like Tomer claims.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2103912607010750893

https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2103917149110653089

@jconsor  good questions!

It got close to subtropical status ydy.  Saying it had no characteristics of that is incorrect.  Not enough to call it a named ST storm, but not a whiff either.  And despite being shallow warm core, it is *strong* warm core w/ thickness that high.  Saw 23 C and 850, 14 C at 700 , and -3 C at 500 on the ECMWF analysis earlier on in the storm.  That is a common temp profile in a strong TS in the tropics or a hybrid system farther N,  Those 925-500 temps I just listed is what Sandy had per recon when it underwent a solid warm seclusion and became more tropical offshore the day of landfall (as a Cat 2), like the Perfect Storm did late in its existence.

A warm seclusion is the first step to ST or T transition, so why that it is said a "mere warm seclusion" is odd.  Yes, many, many occluded cyclones get a warm seclusion, but not all are the same or stop there.  And in this case, SSTs plenty warm for a ST or even T transition.  26 C as a cut off is overrated.  You can get legit ST systems w/ SSTs as low as 15 C.  Look at the Jan 2023 event off the Mid-Atlantic -- it was just a little bit farther offshore than this event, but that made all the difference I think.  I posted on that earlier on this thread along w/ a sat loop that shows a remarkable hurricane for time of year and location!  NHC ignored it operationally and called it s 60 kt STS later, but I do not agree.  65 kt HU easy.  Subtropical storms do not have a persistent defined eye w/ a solid ringeven of mdtly-deep convection.

Find me a baroclinic strong coastal storm in which the sfc low started S of the 576 thk line and wrapped, creating a closed pool of 582 thk over the center.  That's practically unheard of, at least in this part of the world.  So an outlier case, and that's why you can't treat it as "only" this or that typical.

The thing that prevented this storm from becoming total ST is that is was just a bit too close to land.  You want to see such a system 150 mi or more away from sig land b/c otherwise cooler/drier continental air keeps funneling in.  But given this storm was fcst such an outlier event climo-wise, I was cautious as to something unexpected happening here.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

BOS G50KT.  How is that cancel?  BED G40KT,  G61 KT Welfleet and on Block Island.  Exactly as fcst and what the HRRR showed.

Next thing you'll do is "we cancel the rain"  Pfft!  You do realize this is duration event and the rain does not end in ern sections until close to sunrise Tue.

That was a joke lol. Trolling 

[CoastalWx]

Vortex95 needs context before quoting people 

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a joke lol. Trolling 

 

[CoastalWx]

Although winds cancelled for Kev. Another let down for him. Even I thought CT would do better overnight. Probably too inverted. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

People died from falling trees in NYC today. 

Fallacious argument. 

The trouble w/ the "ppl are dying!" argument is that it essentially dictates that anything less than death is trivial and not worth discussing.  That is among the most vapid and intellectually lazy rebuttals around.

Can you objectively say these fatalities would not have occurred anyway if there were more reaonsble and less-hyped warnings?

Not every fatality is due to not enough warnings or alerts.  Many ppl will ignore warnings and go out/take risks despite warnings b/c they have become apathetic to the relentless hype.   Some ppl just plain resist authority/being told what to do.  And some do take warnings seriously, stay home, and a tree crashes into their home, causing a fatality.  All the warnings in the world is not going to prevent something like that from happening.

So I would avoid the high-horse, virtue signaling here and understand that more is not always better and things are not a simple 1-1 correlation when it comes to complex societal issues.
 

[Snowedin]

Another nice band rotating through with some good gusts mixed in. Honestly this storm has been fun to track and experience, especially this evening with all the rain and the classic howling wind sounds we’ve come to expect during a coastal storm. It sort of feels like we’re making up for all those missed t-storms that always seemed to fizzle out west this past summer, although nothing beats a couple good house shaking rumbles.  For now, let’s keep that firehose going!

[ineedsnow]

Very gusty at home but noticeably less in leominster but still windy.. people were wild in the stores yesterday hopefully they all stay home today to.make my day easy.. I dread working the day before we get a legit hurricane up here if everyone went nuts just over this but it would be worth it i guess.