Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago This is the most potential we've seen for a snowy winter in many years. That's enough to keep me interested. How much snow would it take at the airports this winter to bring the 2011-2026 annual average back up to "normnal"? Lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 23 hours ago, CAPE said: My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina. 100%. It also correlates strongly to snowfalls in excess of 6". The AO runs in odd cycles. Seems like 10-13 year cycles or something close to that. Ive been suspecting the cycle is flipping the last 2 winters. It would go a long ways in helping us this winter if its predominantly negative. Makes a huge difference with ninos. Just because the nino is basinwide or east based doesn't automatically wreck us. Having a +AO will though lol. Based on everything I'm seeing, I'm probably more optimistic about this winter than the vast majority on here. Wont be a cold one like last year I dont think but a persistently suppressed storm track with friendly high latitudes will likely deliver some legit fun even if it melts quick lol. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Not sure if this Capital Weather link was already shared, but Boom or Bust seems to be the theme for the upcoming winter.... https://www.capitalweather.com/boom-or-bust-five-experts-reveal-their-dc-winter-snow-predictions/ Accuweather needs to bring JB back onboard. And Matt Rogers can suck it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it! Yeah ill sign up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 41 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it! that white speck in DCA: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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