Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

The coming winter is going to be heavily influenced by how potent El Nino becomes, and it's orientation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome.

I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

 

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific. 

 

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Things that make ya go "hmmm".....

 

 

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool.

YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto!

Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard.

I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting that we have had two consecutive episodes of El Nino that were accompanied by -PDO (2018-2019 and 2023-2024) for the first time since the 1950s (1951-1952 and 1953-1954). The third of warm ENSO of the 1950s was a strong/border line super event. 

Sound familiar?

1957-1958 did not follow that trend.

I can't wait to delve into the stratosphere and solar analogs this summer....this is not the slam-dunk that many are portraying it to be.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We did have two in the 1960s, as well (1965-1966 and 1968-1969) my mistake....but 1968-1969 was weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

 

[CoastalWx]

I look forward to the strong+ Nino and +PDO to help flush out this hangover breathe of a -PDO regime. Not that a -PDO is bad….. but time for something different.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I look forward to the strong+ Nino and +PDO to help flush out this hangover breathe of a -PDO regime. Not that a -PDO is bad….. but time for something different.

Maybe the tide is turning . 

[George001]

On 3/26/2026 at 10:50 AM, MJO812 said:

Maybe the tide is turning . 

Hopefully we go the 02-03 route instead of a 15-16 redux. 

[MJO812]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

Hopefully we go the 02-03 route instead of a 15-16 redux. 

I had a 31 inch storm in 2016. But I agree. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

Hopefully we go the 02-03 route instead of a 15-16 redux. 

I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.

[Devidbrain]

It seems like the key factor will be not just the strength of El Nino, but whether it trends more east-based or central-based as we get closer to winter. That placement often shifts the storm track and temperature patterns significantly. It will be interesting to watch how the Pacific evolves through late summer and fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Devidbrain said:

It seems like the key factor will be not just the strength of El Nino, but whether it trends more east-based or central-based as we get closer to winter. That placement often shifts the storm track and temperature patterns significantly. It will be interesting to watch how the Pacific evolves through late summer and fall.

It depends....if it gets over 2.0, it doesn't really matter where the anomalies are focused, it's going to torch. I made that mistake in 2015 and won't again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First order of business is to determine whether or not El Nino will ultimately grow prohibitively strong.

[CoastalWx]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.

I’ll move to FL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. 

More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south.

 

[George001]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First order of business is to determine whether or not El Nino will ultimately grow prohibitively strong.

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino. 

Yes, I agree. I don't think weak, but nor do I think 2.0+.....so we can work with that.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Agree. Still a wide range of possibilities given we are in early spring, but gun to head given the current subsurface im thinking it probably won’t be a weak event. Still, huge difference between say a moderate and a super Nino. 

A moderate el nino would be nice for a change. We haven't had a true one since 2002-03. Closest we had was 2006-07 (but that stalled at 0.9 on the ONI and RONI) and 2009-10 (but that went over 1.5).

Moderate el ninos seem to be the sweet spot for good winters in the Eastern US. The only one that didn't really pan out was 1994-95, but that was due to a -PDO, and even then, we got one good month of winter weather (February).

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

A moderate el nino would be nice for a change. We haven't had a true one since 2002-03. Closest we had was 2006-07 (but that stalled at 0.9 on the ONI and RONI) and 2009-10 (but that went over 1.5).

Moderate el ninos seem to be the sweet spot for good winters in the Eastern US. The only one that didn't really pan out was 1994-95, but that was due to a -PDO, and even then, we got one good month of winter weather (February).

I would def. prefer moderate where you are in the mid atl, but up here, I'd prefer weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63.

Blend the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

 

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1963-1964 and 1968-1969 were truly high-end winters around here.....1986-1987 was good, and 2015-2016 and 1972-1973 were bad. Goes along with my early hedge that anything sub-super El Nino will be good. I just can not fathom another extremely -PDO +ENSO like 1972-1973 and 2023-2024. I would be absolutely stunned if we see another one that extreme at this point. 2015-2016 is a valid concern, but I would be modestly surprised if this one gets that strong. Again, the largest risk is a 1991-1992/1994-1995/2006-2007 type of season that combined a modest -PDO with an extremely hostile polar domain. 1991-1992 was the most hostile, as the latter two at least offered a late window of opportunity.

 

[weatherwiz]

Going over seasonal forecasting stuff in my and lecture video was about all the different tools and such, professor showed an example of the CANSIPS for next winter and right away that look reminded me of 1957-1958...maybe even a bit of 1968-1969 . It will be interesting to see where we head, not just in terms of ENSO but PDO/AMO as well...we may very well be in the beginning of a long-term shift in both basins  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Going over seasonal forecasting stuff in my and lecture video was about all the different tools and such, professor showed an example of the CANSIPS for next winter and right away that look reminded me of 1957-1958...maybe even a bit of 1968-1969 . It will be interesting to see where we head, not just in terms of ENSO but PDO/AMO as well...we may very well be in the beginning of a long-term shift in both basins  

 

1957-1958 is my early leader in the clubhouse, and then I was reminded of it when looking at CANSIPS....but we need to be leery of how the warmer west Pacific interacts with ENSO because I got duped into interpreting 2023 as a Modoki look. That being said, it should be be that bad because the Pac has improved since then...maybe something in between 2023 and 1957.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would love to take a class like that, which focuses on seasonal forecasting and doesn't try to stuff Calculus 8 down your throat.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1957-1958 is my early leader in the clubhouse, and then I was reminded of it when looking at CANSIPS....but we need to be leery of how the warmer west Pacific interacts with ENSO because I got duped into interpreting 2023 as a Modoki look. That being said, it should be be that bad because the Pac has improved since then...maybe something in between 2023 and 1957.

I have to think that we are in the beginning stages of seeing an improved PAC. But as you stated, with how warm the west PAC is there needs to be some caution in this. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would love to take a class like that, which focuses on seasonal forecasting and doesn't try to stuff Calculus 8 down your throat.

I'm having a ton of fun. I can't speak for other programs are, it's totally possible other programs are much more extensive with the math (but it probably depends on what you're seeking). TBH though its been a bit too easy so far, I was hoping for a bit more of a challenge. This isn't to say I am not getting anything out of it, I have learned some techniques with respect to winter forecasting, especially within the medium-range and evaluating models to help with trying to identify potential trends and model weaknesses. 

The section we're doing in this class though on seasonal forecasting though is really just basic stuff...going over things like PDO/AMO/ENSO/QBO but not in any great depth. But the professor is quite experienced so the real value comes from him sharing his experiences and knowledge. This is what I love most. I actually have the same professor for both classes I'm taking now and he is awesome.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to think that we are in the beginning stages of seeing an improved PAC. But as you stated, with how warm the west PAC is there needs to be some caution in this. 

I'm having a ton of fun. I can't speak for other programs are, it's totally possible other programs are much more extensive with the math (but it probably depends on what you're seeking). TBH though its been a bit too easy so far, I was hoping for a bit more of a challenge. This isn't to say I am not getting anything out of it, I have learned some techniques with respect to winter forecasting, especially within the medium-range and evaluating models to help with trying to identify potential trends and model weaknesses. 

The section we're doing in this class though on seasonal forecasting though is really just basic stuff...going over things like PDO/AMO/ENSO/QBO but not in any great depth. But the professor is quite experienced so the real value comes from him sharing his experiences and knowledge. This is what I love most. I actually have the same professor for both classes I'm taking now and he is awesome.   

I'll bet I could teach a class on that at this point even without ever having earned a met degree...theoretically speaking of course.

Wholeheartedly agree on having commenced a Pacific phase shift....better times are ahead.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet I could teach a class on that at this point even without ever having earned a met degree...theoretically speaking of course.

Wholeheartedly agree on having commenced a Pacific phase shift....better times are ahead.

1000% you could, without question. 

In terms of winters moving forward, I absolutely think we're in for some better times and we will see majority of winters produce versus not producing. I think too the (decreasing) AMO is going to help big time in this regard as well and may even bring back those good ole fashion NAO blocks...like true blocks in which we benefit from. I would not be surprised though if we still had some dud winters mixed in through the remainder of the decade because who knows how long it will take the atmosphere to truly respond to the large-scale oceanic changes but we should be heading in the right direction. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

1000% you could, without question. 

In terms of winters moving forward, I absolutely think we're in for some better times and we will see majority of winters produce versus not producing. I think too the (decreasing) AMO is going to help big time in this regard as well and may even bring back those good ole fashion NAO blocks...like true blocks in which we benefit from. I would not be surprised though if we still had some dud winters mixed in through the remainder of the decade because who knows how long it will take the atmosphere to truly respond to the large-scale oceanic changes but we should be heading in the right direction. 

Yea, I mean.....I do think some of this is a byproduct of CC, but clearly many are embellishing the degree to which it factors in. We are also still in the declining phase of the solar cycle, which is not where you want to be for abundant NAO blocking, and it's going to be a long climb out of this Pac cold phase, so there are some additional lean times ahead. I'm not not convinced winter 2026-2027 will be one of them as of yet.

Part of my rationale for looking at 1957 and 2002 is because they were in the descending phase of the solar cycle following an extended Pacific cold phase, during a +QBO/healthy El Nino.

[weatherwiz]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mean.....I do think some of this is a byproduct of CC, but clearly many are embellishing the degree to which it factors in. We are also still in the declining phase of the solar cycle, which is not where you want to be for abundant NAO blocking, and it's going to be a long climb out of this Pac cold phase, so there are some additional lean times ahead. I'm not not convinced winter 2026-2027 will be one of them as of yet.

Part of my rationale for looking at 1957 and 2002 is because they were in the descending phase of the solar cycle following an extended Pacific cold phase, during a +QBO/healthy El Nino.

These next 10-15 years will be critical in the CC aspect and exactly how much of an influence CC has had. So much has been talked about regarding the lack of Arctic ice cover, the abundance of active Atlantic hurricane seasons and increasing number of storms undergoing RI, the western/mid-western droughts and excessive heat waves...all of these are also a result of the PDO/AMO state we have been in. So the question is, did CC just further exacerbate the intensities? But what happens once we get the PDO/AMO to flip? If we're continuing to see these recent trends continue with a flipped ATL/PAC that could speak volumes. 

Even though we are barely into spring, it is definitely encouraging looking at some of the very early analogs for the upcoming winter. Would much rather be seeing looks similar to the 1957-1958, 1969-1969, 2002-2003 versus something along the like of a say 1997-1998 or 2015-2016. Obviously those were in the super category but the point is...the very early signs at least yield some encouragement  

TBH, if any of the early signs pointed to one of those years I'd probably just not even bother doing any digging for the upcoming winter lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These next 10-15 years will be critical in the CC aspect and exactly how much of an influence CC has had. So much has been talked about regarding the lack of Arctic ice cover, the abundance of active Atlantic hurricane seasons and increasing number of storms undergoing RI, the western/mid-western droughts and excessive heat waves...all of these are also a result of the PDO/AMO state we have been in. So the question is, did CC just further exacerbate the intensities? But what happens once we get the PDO/AMO to flip? If we're continuing to see these recent trends continue with a flipped ATL/PAC that could speak volumes. 

Even though we are barely into spring, it is definitely encouraging looking at some of the very early analogs for the upcoming winter. Would much rather be seeing looks similar to the 1957-1958, 1969-1969, 2002-2003 versus something along the like of a say 1997-1998 or 2015-2016. Obviously those were in the super category but the point is...the very early signs at least yield some encouragement  

TBH, if any of the early signs pointed to one of those years I'd probably just not even bother doing any digging for the upcoming winter lol 

That's what I have always maintained...if we hit like 2035 and are still in that pattern, then I'll capitulate....but the tide already seems to be turning. Obviously the word is warming....I'm not disputing that, but I'm just referring to the ability to discern the degree to which these patterns/phenomena are a byproduct of CC versus how much they are attributable to natural variation. The atmosphere is still cyclical...it's just warmer, and some of said cycles are becoming augmented and somewhat increasingly stagnated.