Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

The coming winter is going to be heavily influenced by how potent El Nino becomes, and it's orientation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome.

I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

 

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific. 

 

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Things that make ya go "hmmm".....

 

 

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool.

YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto!

Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard.

I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.