2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

A fetch that large, with duration that long would create long period energetic swells. Periods over 14 seconds are rare on the east coast (usually only associated with major hurricanes) They can cause major beach erosion in comparison to more typical mid period (10-13) second swells we typically see during east coast coastal storms.
So if this comes to fruition it could have major coastal impacts. Especially on the outer banks where several areas are already in trouble.


.

[GaWx]

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. 

 The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA!

 Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

I am just a little surprised at the degree of blocking and amplitude given the very strong El Nino.  A strong STJ from the El Nino usually prevents patterns like this (moves things along) and we already saw the STJ quite apparent that impacted Isaias.  That was unusually strong STJ trough for the Gulf Coast for early Oct.

12z ECMWF looks like classic omega!  What is this, May?

I will say this. given the non0-linear nature of the atmosphere and its associated oscillations, something coming in being as the strongest on record (El Nino), unexpected things can and do happen that do not fit "what we thought should happen."  I mentioned this before, it was assumed before that in very strong El Nino, Cali gets soaked and the Pac NW is dry.  Well the 2015-16 event, the exact opppsite occurred!

[GaWx]

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast and it may very well end up a ST or hybrid.

@jconsor@vortex95

[GaWx]

The 0Z UK is nowhere near the E coast. But it has a very high end TS, which based on the 976 mb SLP might be too low:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.8N 71.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2026 36 32.8N 71.4W 1010 44
0000UTC 19.10.2026 48 32.0N 70.5W 1008 42
1200UTC 19.10.2026 60 32.4N 70.3W 1008 39
0000UTC 20.10.2026 72 34.2N 70.2W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.10.2026 84 34.7N 70.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 21.10.2026 96 34.7N 69.9W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.10.2026 108 34.5N 68.9W 1000 39
0000UTC 22.10.2026 120 35.3N 68.6W 997 42
1200UTC 22.10.2026 132 36.5N 67.0W 994 44
0000UTC 23.10.2026 144 38.5N 64.9W 986 56
1200UTC 23.10.2026 156 40.2N 60.6W 980 58
0000UTC 24.10.2026 168 43.3N 53.8W 976 56

[GaWx]

12Z UK: H in N ATL:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.7N  70.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 19.10.2026   36  32.7N  70.7W     1007            44
    1200UTC 19.10.2026   48  33.7N  71.3W     1004            43
    0000UTC 20.10.2026   60  35.0N  71.2W     1002            41
    1200UTC 20.10.2026   72  36.0N  70.5W     1001            39
    0000UTC 21.10.2026   84  36.0N  70.0W     1001            45
    1200UTC 21.10.2026   96  36.0N  70.2W      998            42
    0000UTC 22.10.2026  108  36.2N  70.5W      996           45
    1200UTC 22.10.2026  120  36.9N  69.2W      992            42
    0000UTC 23.10.2026  132  38.1N  66.5W      987            48
    1200UTC 23.10.2026  144  40.9N  61.1W      978            67
    0000UTC 24.10.2026  156  45.8N  56.8W      977            55
    1200UTC 24.10.2026  168  47.9N  58.0W      996            43

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Off the East Coast of the United States:
A strong non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form by
Sunday night off the southeast coast of the United States. This low
is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of next
week, and some subtropical development is possible during this
time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds,
coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East
Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National
Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more
information, along with High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[GaWx]

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
36.0N 71.0W FOR 20/1800Z.

[GaWx]

The non-tropical low now forming gas gone orange:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

1. Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is developing along a 
frontal boundary tonight off the southeast coast of the United 
States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the 
next couple of days while it initially remains non-tropical. Later 
this week, if the system stays over the Gulf Stream, environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for the low to develop some 
subtropical characteristics. A subtropical cyclone could form over 
the second half of this week as the system begins moving generally 
northeastward, offshore of the eastern United States. Regardless of 
development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, 
and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please 
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service 
offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, 
along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[GaWx]

This is now Invest 93L.

 0Z UKMET almost gets to H strength:

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.10.2026 0 35.0N 70.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 20.10.2026 12 35.2N 70.5W 998 40
0000UTC 21.10.2026 24 35.5N 69.8W 998 45
1200UTC 21.10.2026 36 36.2N 69.5W 995 40
0000UTC 22.10.2026 48 36.9N 69.7W 989 51
1200UTC 22.10.2026 60 38.1N 68.1W 982 52
0000UTC 23.10.2026 72 39.4N 63.9W 975 63
1200UTC 23.10.2026 84 42.8N 56.7W 975 57
0000UTC 24.10.2026 96 45.9N 51.6W 986 54
1200UTC 24.10.2026 108 46.7N 48.5W 992 45
0000UTC 25.10.2026 120 48.0N 42.4W 991 45
1200UTC 25.10.2026 132 54.1N 32.9W 980 40
0000UTC 26.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

[NorthHillsWx]

93L looks subtropical. Looks much more tropical in nature than the last nor Easter everyone was freaking out over on social media. This one is actually maintaining convection over the center, has highest winds in central convection, and is over the Gulf Stream 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

93L looks subtropical. Looks much more tropical in nature than the last nor Easter everyone was freaking out over on social media. This one is actually maintaining convection over the center, has highest winds in central convection, and is over the Gulf Stream 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better
organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area
located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States
coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical
characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If
these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this
afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward.

Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S.
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including
hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult
statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices
and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas
Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Evidently, this was already declared STS Josephine just a few minutes ago.

————————

12Z UKMET was still another having run it even though the text technically called it a TS (I don’t think it is capable of distinguishing T from ST):

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 69.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2026 0 36.7N 69.0W 995 44
0000UTC 22.10.2026 12 37.5N 69.4W 991 47
1200UTC 22.10.2026 24 38.8N 68.4W 985 49
0000UTC 23.10.2026 36 39.9N 65.1W 984 66
1200UTC 23.10.2026 48 41.4N 59.5W 982 61
0000UTC 24.10.2026 60 43.0N 56.6W 986 51
1200UTC 24.10.2026 72 43.0N 54.8W 990 46
0000UTC 25.10.2026 84 42.8N 51.4W 994 41
1200UTC 25.10.2026 96 41.7N 45.7W 1004 38
0000UTC 26.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES



Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near
and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave
ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking
the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing
from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global
model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect
until the threat diminishes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[NorthHillsWx]

Hope all those weather hypers on social media study this system. This is what a STS looks like. Not that nor Easter last time 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Hope all those weather hypers on social media study this system. This is what a STS looks like. Not that nor Easter last time 

Absolutely. You can see the fronts are gone in Josephine. But the convention is not particularly deep near the center. It also has a relatively large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern quadrant (gradient driven)


.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely. You can see the fronts are gone in Josephine. But the convention is not particularly deep near the center. It also has a relatively large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern quadrant (gradient driven)


.

1. For you: How’s the surf in your area?

2. For all: Can a subtropical cyclone attain hurricane force winds but still not be classified as tropical? We know there are ST depressions and storms, but I’ve never heard of a subtropical H. Why not?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1. For you: How’s the surf in your area?
2. For all: Can a subtropical cyclone attain hurricane force winds but still not be classified as tropical? We know there are ST depressions and storms, but I’ve never heard of a subtropical H. Why not?

Surfs good, the best day should be tomorrow. Being south facing the waves are smaller then the rest of the east coast but the winds are offshore.

You can see NHC has this as a 80kt post trop extratropical system. Sandy was similar. The east coast really doged a bullet here that it is move out to sea


.

[Boston Bulldog]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. For you: How’s the surf in your area?

2. For all: Can a subtropical cyclone attain hurricane force winds but still not be classified as tropical? We know there are ST depressions and storms, but I’ve never heard of a subtropical H. Why not?

From deep in the archives of weather.gov: https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/sub_extra_tropical/subtropical.htm 

"There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical."

Now I will say I do not agree with this logic! 74mph automatically meaning fully tropical hurricane for a subtropical system makes absolutely zero sense. I am rooting for Josephine to get to 75mph now, this may have exposed a chink in the classification armor that went unnoticed for decades.

To further muddy the waters, there was a subtropical storm that achieved hurricane intensity in 1979, and this was maintained as Subtropical Storm One. It is unclear if this was designated as a STS operationally or after the season ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Subtropical_Storm_One