2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

That’s pretty far south and impressive so being there instead of east of IC  MD , does that permit opportunity for a more easterly component to movement ?

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

So this should be to the OC/DC latitude around 12-6pm Friday?

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

Joe Bastardi makes a good point about this likely being warm core at least in the early stages since it would be forming over 82-83F water. He said it weakens as it moves toward the coast because that’s what a warm core storm would do as it gets into cooler SSTs.

[TriPol]

The new 00Z EC-AIFS has become more aggressive with the cyclone.

At F78, 06Z Saturday Sep. 26, it's down to about 989 mb. Compare that with the 18Z AIFS at roughly the same point, which was around 997 to 988 mb depending on the exact six-hour frame. More importantly, look at the position: the 00Z AIFS still has the center much farther west than the 00Z GFS, sitting roughly east of the Delmarva/NJ corridor rather than racing harmlessly toward the open Atlantic.

And look at the structure. The isobars are extremely tightly packed on the western and northwestern side, right toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. That's a very substantial pressure gradient between the cyclone and the 1026 mb high to the north.

The deepening sequence on this 00Z AIFS is also worth watching. We had approximately 999 mb at F54, and now 989 mb at F78. That's 10 mb in 24 hours, so this particular 24-hour interval is not bombogenesis. But the cyclone is already quite deep by Saturday morning, and what happens during the next 12 to 24 hours is the fascinating part.

[Windspeed]

FWIW, the GFS operational has brought back a CAG system in the midrange, lifting it into the GOM the past few runs. The 00z was more pronounced with a hurricane.

[wdrag]

GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. 

The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system.  This has been ongoing modeling for several days.

So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling.  Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. 

This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS).  Believe what you wish-

me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. 

I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.