WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:02 PM GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Wednesday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:37 PM Northeastern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Wednesday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:39 PM The trough in the east should quickly pull whatever develops down here northward. Maybe 1-1.5 days over water in the northeastern Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Wednesday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:41 PM Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:14 PM 31 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form. This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:04 PM I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33 0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26 1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40 0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:06 PM 12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27 0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29 0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39 0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41 1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM 12 hours ago, Newman said: The trough in the east should quickly pull whatever develops down here northward. Maybe 1-1.5 days over water in the northeastern Gulf 12 hours ago, Windspeed said: Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form. Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet. After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics: 0Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31 —————————— 12Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30 1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 53 minutes ago, GaWx said: After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics: 0Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31 —————————— 12Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30 1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31 Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32 1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33 0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39 1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40 0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago any hope for this thing to make some noise in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago Will the tropical system off the west coast of Florida manage to organize despite moderate northerly wind shear over the next few days? It's expected to spend three to five days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which suggests we shouldn't count this system out. While a weaker system is the most likely scenario, there is the potential for a stronger system if it continues moving west under strong central/southeast US ridging and doesn't turn quickly northward toward Florida.https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tricky-forecast-for-gulf-of-mexico 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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