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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread


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The "worst" of summer was partially in April!  We had all of those highs in the mid and upper 80s.   Since then, we have returned to VERY HIGH humidities to accompany relatively normal summer temps.  When I go running in the mornings, it is like someone dumped a bucket of water over me by the time I am done.  

Still working on my winter ideas.  This winter is a lean warm, but truly a crap shoot.  I tend to think we start slow w/ kind of a meh December with gradually increasing chances.  Late Jan to mid Feb seems like the sweet spot regardless of ENSO.  I see no real change to that this winter.  Somebody from the Plateau eastward could get hammered by an Apps runner or coastal this winter.

As for fall, that season just seems hot lately.  I do think Nino should temper the excessive heat and maybe bring normal fall temps by late September.  Sometimes Nino winters kind of have a false start during October.  The heat out West seems to suggest the Nino pattern has begun.  Might be a good year for NE ski resorts?

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Just can't seem to get the storms around my area for some reason. There have been storms around daily for a couple of weeks now, but I've really had very little rain. And WAY less thunder than a normal July. This should be the wettest month of the year here. Even today we are stuck under the anvil of the large storm cluster over northern Atlanta. It's stabilizing us without giving us any rain.

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6 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

I'm getting really sick of watching it rain in a circle all around me. I actually just lost power for a while due to lightning, but the rain dome is intact. Not a single drop of rain. Looking at my records, it hasn't rained an inch in a single event here since 5/24.

I noticed the radar today that it was raining both east and west of most of Chattanooga. 

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9 hours ago, John1122 said:

Woke up to a thunderstorm rolling over right now. Had 3 rounds of rain yesterday that put down half an inch or so. This one is small but it's pouring down. Looks like another, bigger one lined up behind this one if it doesn't die out.

How are yall even in a drought..lol

We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

How are yall even in a drought..lol

We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

The latest drought monitor finally removed most of my area from the drought and I suspect Thursday will remove the rest of the area. It's thundering again now and a storm is about to move over from the N/NW. I hate that you guys can't catch a break, it was actually doing that here a little over a month ago. It would rain in a circle around my area into SW Va where Daniel Boone lives. 

This is the 30 day rainfall with the legend below. It's been a stark contrast from the Northern Plateau to Knox down to the Chattanooga area. Todays rain and storm are moving almost on that same path as the observed rainfall.

CwCIPbs.png

CwCTThJ.png

 

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

It's rained .75 here today and some areas near me got 1 to 1.5 inches. Looks like upstream is loaded for another round in a few hours. If they don't die out. 

Most of the rain upcoming seems like a boundary slipping down,who know who gets the rain but even so the MJO into the WH/EP isnt a rather dry solution,more unsettled in days ahead

Latest-SPC-U-S-Composite-Map-07-19-2026_05_51_PM.png

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Finally getting some decent rain'

Flash Flood Warning
TNC037-149-187-200230-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FF.W.0031.260720T0030Z-260720T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
730 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Davidson County in middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Rutherford County in middle Tennessee...
  Northeastern Williamson County in middle Tennessee...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of
  rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.
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