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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread


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Seems to be a wall at the Appalachian Mountains. Some SC peeps on X are gnashing their teeth. They'll get some storms and wind but it literally blows over. Slower moving rain and systems are here on our side.
Thursday looks like more of the same. Big ol' slug of moisture will come up from the Gulf. Some hints of even a LLJ into the Tennessee Valley. After some good rain around here the system speeds up and fills over the Carolinas with lower QPF that way. 
We still have a long way to go on our own drought. I suppose we'll make more progress later this week. My lawn seems perfectly fine now.

Yup, Southeast ETN has been getting a few soakers the past few days. Finally had a good sunset today after a weeks worth of dreary clouds. This is facing your neck of the woods.75ff34c21229841fcfd095791c7b0fef.jpg


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Yeah it'll split around us. Front should get into northwest Tenn. Risk farther east and south is that subsidence northwest of the decaying TC squashes things. Then the said TC remnants are sliding deep south. That'd be nice in winter. 

Somebody has to say it, lol! :weenie:

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wound up with 3.93" here. North Jonesville officially 4.06" . Pennington gap, 4.57". Radar estimates of 5-7 inches northern Lee into Western Wise County. Powell River flooded Big Stone on down to Jonesville. Creeks and Streams flooded.

Norris can use that water.

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It's like Cross Mountain is a wall these days where all rain goes to die. Heavy radar returns just fall apart and the rain just splits. I had about 10 minutes of a shower. I don't recall in my lifetime ever seeing rain dry out specifically over this small area so often. I've seen droughts before but this one seems like almost a micro drought. 

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The GFS is still baking the heat into the area but the Euro/Euro AI are more reasonable looking. Still hot but 4-6 degrees cooler than the GFS is advertising. Looks like MRX has followed the Euro temp guidance for my area today vs the GFS yesterday. They had my high at 97 Wednesday during yesterdays forecast, today it's 93. The 12z GFS is showing 98 over my area Wed/Thur/Friday still but the Euro AI shows 90-92.

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NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble?

Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious.

Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer. 

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