"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To embed, you need to change the X to Twitter.com in the ORIGINAL url bar of the page, then copy that and paste it here.

If you copy the X.com and try to change it to Twitter.com in AMUSWX it won’t work.  You change it in the original URL bar and copy.

Someday Wow will fix it

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False.

Don't worry you will get your benchmark storm someday.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

56 minutes ago, Greg said:

Correct! I don't believe for a second that if this storm center moved a good 50 to closer to 75 miles north of its trajectory, this would somehow loose its moisture and dump less snow. If anything temps in the low to mid 30's are not usually deemed the most ideal temp for accumulating snow despite what this storm did in that ribbon from southern Providence to the Bridgewater area. Most are in the upper 20's and low 30's at best and hold/carry the most moisture possible without dying out not to mention dendrite formation. If I went by that line of thought, then a supper Blizzard of '78 would never be possible here in the heart of our viewing area (Providence Aera to the Boston Area) which we all know happened so not sure where those Mets got that.  I also know the 30"+ area snowfall coverage in '78 actually enveloped a larger area. 

Yeah but regardless of temperature, 1978 stalled which was the main reason why there were those high totals over a large area. If this one tracked further inland wouldn't it have been another Feb 2013 where CT gets those totals instead of SEMA/RI?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah but regardless of temperature, 1978 stalled which was the main reason why there were those high totals over a large area.

That was part of it, but most of the snow in these tends to fall within a 18-20 hour period....the stall prob adds another half foot or something like that. Someone very lucky gets more in the stall, but usually the precip starts to get pretty banded after a time when it stalls. 

If you push that arc of convective snows well inland, you're gonna get crazy widespread totals....think April '97 with maybe a bit less total QPF (we wouldn't have gotten quite the juicy WCB like that one had....which fell in a lot of areas as rain) and colder of course so the net result is basically '97 with the 30"+ stuff over a larger area. But who knows for sure since we didn't see it. I agree that the current jackpot area would've gotten less if it tracked 50 miles NW, but my guess is still easily 20-30"+. 

[Greg]

36 minutes ago, Layman said:

Are the primary drivers for the similarities in areas hit and amounts dropped (in 1978 and 2026) largely due to the intensity of the storm and it's positioning?  I understand 1978 stalled out and snowed over a longer period of time but am mostly curious about the how/why those intense bands just continued to clobber that SEMA and PVD area specifically in both instances.  

As you can see in the final snow totals in '78, the Providence area (Especially northern half) to Boston area and North Shore due to storms intensity and positioning (Track) is primarily the reason. The Blizzard of 2026 was actually more intense central pressure wise but about 70-75 miles further south than where '78 was not to mention the capture in '78 was off the coast of New Jersey not North Carolina like '26 was. Big difference in where it was captured and track inside the Benchmark. Temperatures back then was actually colder in the morning (Upper teens to Mid 20's) then rose to the upper 20's to low 30's (well inland around Worcester area low to mid 20's) with the exception of the far Southshore Cape and Islands where temps hit the mid to even upper 30's for a relatively short time as the storm made its closest pass. Storm track is crucial in storms like this one and of course in '78.

                       Blizzard of 1978                                                                      Blizzard of 2026

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was part of it, but most of the snow in these tends to fall within a 18-20 hour period....the stall prob adds another half foot or something like that. Someone very lucky gets more in the stall, but usually the precip starts to get pretty banded after a time when it stalls. 

If you push that arc of convective snows well inland, you're gonna get crazy widespread totals....think April '97 with maybe a bit less total QPF (we wouldn't have gotten quite the juicy WCB like that one had....which fell in a lot of areas as rain) and colder of course so the net result is basically '97 with the 30"+ stuff over a larger area. But who knows for sure since we didn't see it. I agree that the current jackpot area would've gotten less if it tracked 50 miles NW, but my guess is still easily 20-30"+. 

Yea, I often say speed of movement is overrated in terms of total snowfall. I bet the absolute highest amount in 1978 was only 6" higher than Monday due to speed of movement.

[Layman]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

As you can see in the final snow totals in '78, the Providence area (Especially northern half) to Boston area and North Shore due to storms intensity and positioning (Track) is primarily the reason. The Blizzard of 2026 was actually more intense central pressure wise but about 70-75 miles further south than where '78 was not to mention the capture in '78 was off the coast of New Jersey not North Carolina like '26 was. Big difference in where it was captured and track inside the Benchmark. Temperatures back then was actually colder in the morning (Upper teens to Mid 20's) then rose to the upper 20's to low 30's (well inland around Worcester area low to mid 20's) with the exception of the far Southshore Cape and Islands where temps hit the mid to even upper 30's for a relatively short time as the storm made its closest pass. Storm track is crucial in storms like this one and of course in '78.

Thank you for taking the time to put this together, I appreciate it. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was part of it, but most of the snow in these tends to fall within a 18-20 hour period....the stall prob adds another half foot or something like that. Someone very lucky gets more in the stall, but usually the precip starts to get pretty banded after a time when it stalls. 

If you push that arc of convective snows well inland, you're gonna get crazy widespread totals....think April '97 with maybe a bit less total QPF (we wouldn't have gotten quite the juicy WCB like that one had....which fell in a lot of areas as rain) and colder of course so the net result is basically '97 with the 30"+ stuff over a larger area. But who knows for sure since we didn't see it. I agree that the current jackpot area would've gotten less if it tracked 50 miles NW, but my guess is still easily 20-30"+. 

Well unless we had a colder antecedent airmass in place, I think that we would've mixed with sleet here if this past one came 50 miles northwest. With the current airmass I think it would've held down accumulations somewhat. It would've been similar to what 2015 was around here. The 30+ totals around ORH/BOS and then around 20" in this area further south. Still historic but not a benchmark kind of storm that it was. I think a lot of people are sore about this storm understandably, but unless you get a stall like 78 or another 97 with a much colder airmass in place, it's near impossible to get 30+ over the whole area.

[The 4 Seasons]

12 hours ago, wxsniss said:

One of the better timelapses I've seen overlaying H5 + surface + radar, showing cyclogenesis and capture:

https://x.com/WeatherNut27/status/2026280880675913988?s=20

https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/status/2026280880675913988?s=20

(and if anyone knows, let me know how I can get these to embed)

what site/software is that with that radar and all those overlays etc? Something private, in house stuff or is that from a paywalled site you think?

@dendrite

[The 4 Seasons]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I often say speed of movement is overrated in terms of total snowfall. I bet the absolute highest amount in 1978 was only 6" higher than Monday due to speed of movement.

so like 45ish? The accordion man claims 50 in that storm. I dont see any official reports higher than 38 or 39. I saw unoffically from the NWS that Lincoln reported 55" and drifts to 27'. But reporting was god awful back then so its not hard to believe 50 or 55. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what site/software is that with that radar and all those overlays etc? Something private, in house stuff or is that from a paywalled site you think?

@dendrite

No idea.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

so like 45ish? The accordion man claims 50 in that storm. I dont see any official reports higher than 38 or 39. I saw unoffically from the NWS that Lincoln reported 55" and drifts to 27'. But reporting was god awful back then so its not hard to believe 50 or 55. 

Yea, I'd say 45ish.

[wxsniss]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what site/software is that with that radar and all those overlays etc? Something private, in house stuff or is that from a paywalled site you think?

@dendrite

No idea either… you might want to DM the original tweet by @weathernut27

Would be amazing to archive a searchable library of storms in this way

(and something I’ve long wanted to do but never have time: archive how all the main models performed for each storm)

[Greg]

56 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah but regardless of temperature, 1978 stalled which was the main reason why there were those high totals over a large area. If this one tracked further inland wouldn't it have been another Feb 2013 where CT gets those totals instead of SEMA/RI?

Temps do indeed count very much so. Also, if this system tracked about a good 50-75 further north there is no guarantee that the primary banding would have set up like Feb. 9, 2013, in Central and Eastern CT. The Symmetry and 850's of this storm were a little different vs 2013.

[The 4 Seasons]

21 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

No idea either… you might want to DM the original tweet by @weathernut27

Would be amazing to archive a searchable library of storms in this way

(and something I’ve long wanted to do but never have time: archive how all the main models performed for each storm)

definitely... that whole package in that video is just something that would be absolutely priceless, i mean just amazing to have for every storm (at least modern storm)..man.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

22 minutes ago, Greg said:

Temps do indeed count very much so. Also, if this system tracked about a good 50-75 further north there is no guarantee that the primary banding would have set up like Feb. 9, 2013, in Central and Eastern CT. The Symmetry and 850's of this storm were a little different vs 2013.

I'm not saying that temps don't count, just that the stall of 78 was definitely a factor in the high totals. Due to this marginal airmass that we have, if this one had tracked 50-75 further northwest that probably would've brought the mixing line from Cape Cod up to my area which would've reduced totals somewhat. Temperatures were already marginal as it is in this area.

If we had a colder airmass to work with like 78 had then yeah it would've been big. But even in that case, there is still no way to tell exactly where the heaviest banding would've set up. In 1978, the heaviest totals were actually a little north of this one, around N Rhode Island to the Boston Area, which makes sense given that 1978 tracked a bit northwest of this one. Most areas in SEMA "only" got like 16-20" based on historical maps. It was still PVD's biggest storm for many years though. There are just so many factors at play so it's hard to say what would've happened if this one was further northwest.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

definitely... that whole package in that video is just something that would be absolutely priceless, i mean just amazing to have for every storm (at least modern storm)..man.

I think I read in one of his comments that he saves them live and pieces them together.

[NeonPeon]

Newport schools closed for the week.

I know the bottle neck is availability of heavy equipment to deal with drifts, but this is one of the weaknesses of car dependent civic architecture.

All the main roads are cleared.