“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The EPS and the GEFS are still pretty similar. Pretty low odds for a significant storm >0.5" liquid for most. 

 

That is about what I expect for a track...makes sense.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need some to start tracking over the elbow soon.

[UnitedWx]

HA, I didn't realize there was a thread for this already. I thought this was from several weeks ago 

[Kitz Craver]

It’s like dryslot opined yesterday. When something major is imminent, you are inevitably going to see some huge hits. It’s just not there currently 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The EPS and the GEFS are still pretty similar. Pretty low odds for a significant storm >0.5" liquid for most. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get more of these EP AIFS members NW

I really fail to see how anyone can take these two images in and be at a loss for where this is headed.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I really fail to see how anyone can take these two images in and be at a loss for where this is headed.

Hallucinations a plenty 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s like dryslot opined yesterday. When something major is imminent, you are inevitably going to see some huge hits. It’s just not there currently 

Yea, it's going to be relatively close in a geographical sense....got it, but it seems pretty definitive that we aren't getting a blizzard. Been my take for days and I'm not seeing anything to give me pause.

[NeonPeon]

Why does it have to be headed anywhere?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

Why does it have to be headed anywhere?

Should we do a wellness check?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

HA, I didn't realize there was a thread for this already. I thought this was from several weeks ago 

I think that late January threat after the blizzard is a pretty good analog.

[dendrite]

Sometimes there’s model wide failures in depicting features. There’s still time for that given the mess out west. But yeah, every 6hrs of near status quo won’t get us there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sometimes there’s model wide failures in depicting features. There’s still time for that given the mess out west. But yeah, every 6hrs of near status quo won’t get us there.

We need the follow up crap over MN to weaken....DT mentioned that and it's a solid point.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need the follow up crap over MN to weaken....DT mentioned that and it's a solid point.

Why? It’s the only model giving SNE a big event. We need to kick the system more north.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that late January threat after the blizzard is a pretty good analog.

I think if the models suck me back in on this one.. which I haven't been feeling in the least, I'm going to have to start name calling said models

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why? It’s the only model giving SNE a big event. We need to kick the system more north.

I’ve been trying to see how that plays in with this but I think we want that as well to help Fuji it more north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why? It’s the only model giving SNE a big event. We need to kick the system more north.

Doesn't mean it's correct in doing so.

The Euro correctly has that energy kick the developing blizzard out over the ocean.

[UnitedWx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if he bothers to ever walk any of this dribble back when mother nature inevitably puts him over her knee? I don't bother to check....

No, but you know when he finally gets one of the 50 "right" he'll honk it for months

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’ve been trying to see how that plays in with this but I think we want that as well to help Fuji it more north. 

Well, whatever...we don't want it to do what the EURO has it doing.

[CoastalWx]

It’s the shit behind it that kicks it or pushes it east. Can see it at 500 as ridge gets Kid N Play haircut.

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't mean it's correct in doing so.

The Euro correctly has that energy kick the developing blizzard out over the ocean.

Wait…are we looking for ways to snow or a way to boot it OTS?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Wait…are we looking for ways to snow or a way to boot it OTS?

I think he has Jan 22 PTSD.

[NeonPeon]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should we do a wellness check?

No, I mean there's a need for a narrative, because people want big solutions, and then you have a counter narrative in every storm, "it's gone." 

Every model in this context is evidence of an outcome that isn't just some middling thing, it's all heading to something else. 

I know the solution tends to more accuracy as we have better information and more time, but it could head to where it is, some brush of an event, or anything else within a reasonable envelope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Wait…are we looking for ways to snow or a way to boot it OTS?

They are connected. I know for me, understanding what boots it out to sea helps to determine how to get it to snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think he has Jan 22 PTSD.

No. Watch DT's video. There is some sort of communication gap that I don't have time to bridge right now. Honest statement...it's not at all a shot at Brian.

[CoastalWx]

Also the euro has a piece of PV east of Maine hanging around last minute on the 00z run to help fook it up too.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wait…are we looking for ways to snow or a way to boot it OTS?

He said probably out to sea yesterday but maybe hits.  Today all in on OTS. Seems early but best of luck to him 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Watch DT's video. There is some sort of communication gap that I don't have time to bridge right now. Honest statement...it's not at all a shot at Brian.

I think a big issue is what happens east and northeast of Maine. That is what some models focus on with the flow not buckling enough. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that late January threat after the blizzard is a pretty good analog.

Feb 1.. looks familiar...

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think a big issue is what happens east and northeast of Maine. That is what some models focus on with the flow not buckling enough. 

Ukie has a nice shitstreak backing in 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He said probably out to sea yesterday but maybe hits.  Today all in on OTS. Seems early but best of luck to him 

I've always been on the OTS train with this. You want links?

Let me know how much you end up with.