2026-2027 Super El Nino

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. Why are you using 1991-2020 for climo for a 1987 summer? That diminishes the above normal H5 in the E US on your 1st map.

2. The highest height anomalies/warmest temp annomalies are in the E US, regardless. How is that El Ninoish?

The negative height anomalies near the Gulf of Alaska, together with the core of the strongest negative height anomalies over northeastern Canada, look reasonably Nino-like to me. Summer ENSO teleconnections are much weaker and noisier than in winter, so I wouldn't expect a textbook composite. Given that, the broad pattern still seems fairly consistent with a mature El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Closing in on +4c in Nino 1+2

[EasternLI]

Let's do a comparison as things stand currently wrt SST's. Here's this year followed by the other strong/super el nino's going back to 82-83. Below is this year currently, followed by the others in reverse chronological order. Obviously, the globe is getting warmer over time. Naturally, sst's would follow suit. Is anyone disputing that fact anymore? I don't really see anyone doing that but not the point of this post. One can clearly see things warming over time. 

 

I've been floating around on these boards for a very long time now. There used to be discussions from very wise mets in the enso threads of yore on how actual sst's should be viewed and pondered. Not only the anomalies. So I'm posting the actual sst's as comparison. Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Hot off the press from another source posting the 8/1/26 Cansips run of Nino SST anomalies. It is continuing the CanSIPS run trend of moving the strongest warm SST anomalies further and further east at the ~Nov peak. That’s not surprising because I’ve been suspecting a Modoki bias for it based on the past few years of analyzing it as I’ve posted a number of times here before.

 The April-June 1st runs had the warmest anomalies near the Dateline/straight Modoki (W based) in the peak month of Nov. Then the July 1st had warmest anomalies in Nov further E near 160W, more of a cross between central based and Modoki.
 

 The new Cansips run’s Nov peak shows the warmest anomalies centered near 130W, which would be centered in E Nino 3.4/Nino 3 making it pretty E based. Though this run is not as E based as 1997-8, stay tuned to future runs because the E trend of the strongest anomalies on Cansips from run to run may very well not be done due to this suspected Modoki bias.

 I can’t post it because the file size is much too large for me to have room in my account. But when it comes out on TT and WxBell, those will be smaller files and thus postable.

No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.

The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo.

 But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. WB (using 1981-2010 base) has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s (1991-2020 base) 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based):

WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W

WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W

 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo.

 But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. It has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based):

WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W

WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W

 

It's bad enough current SSTA vary from different products/sources, now we have models prog depictions following along. No wonder there's rarely agreement on forecasts...or on this Board! Lol