2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 

I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.

That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition. 

There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.

I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.

I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain

El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain

El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight

This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High

Is this the Walker Cycle?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation. 

Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out. 

Yea, I mean in general....no relevance to this season, though ...although I don't think it's as clear cut as many do for other reasons.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is this the Walker Cycle?

You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max

Oh, yea...no doubt.....it's very clear in my break down of Hadley Cell placement per Modiki Index.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo).

Yea, can only work with what we have. I don't care to get into pre 1950 analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the one that I used but your's is probably better.

Walker Cycle Serves to Budget Solar Energy Focused Near the Equator by upwelling Cooler Subsurface Water and Distributing it Westward via Easterly trade Winds

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions.

09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. 

NPH area

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. 

NPH area

Yes, I was about to mention that....1997-1998 had that on display during -NAO, too. -NAO buys the coast a shot with marginal airmass and favorable storm track.

Pacific def. won't be as favorable as 2009, albeit better than 2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This isn't going to be cold in the mean like 2002.....too much warmth too far east for that. I think we can get some brutal cold, but it will be fleeting, like 2016 and 1983.

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. 

NPH area

Important to note though, those mid atlantic blizzards happened because you were able to get PV lobes dropping south from the Hudson’s and phasing. Even if this did not show up in the post season mean. One of the issues during super Ninos you tend to get too much warm air/ridge bridging in Canada for these PV lobes to really set up to begin with.  

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think they are arguing for +EPO correlation, scarred from recent Nino's I think. The map above has a negative 500mb right in the NPH region.. that's El Nino! I don't think the EPO is always positive in El Nino, it's further north so more variance. The 1895-1950 anti-La Nina is very -EPO in El Nino. -PDO does favor +epo/+wpo

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+2 for Nino 3.4?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak:

19 Jul 2026	1013.04	1016.50	-27.15	-27.71	-19.78
18 Jul 2026	1013.56	1016.50	-23.95	-27.02	-19.48
17 Jul 2026	1013.50	1016.95	-27.09	-26.34	-19.15
16 Jul 2026	1013.27	1018.25	-36.50	-25.58	-18.73
15 Jul 2026	1012.10	1017.65	-40.01	-24.45	-18.16
14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92
11 Jul 2026	1011.77	1015.80	-30.66	-23.06	-16.66
10 Jul 2026	1013.16	1015.45	-19.94	-22.84	-16.52
9 Jul 2026	1011.59	1014.45	-23.45	-22.68	-16.60
8 Jul 2026	1008.90	1015.20	-44.63	-22.32	-16.71
7 Jul 2026	1009.02	1015.35	-44.81	-21.68	-16.58
6 Jul 2026	1011.31	1015.45	-31.33	-21.34	-16.28
5 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.25	-35.46	-21.21	-16.03
4 Jul 2026	1010.84	1015.20	-32.69	-21.02	-15.72

 

90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak:

19 Jul 2026	1013.04	1016.50	-27.15	-27.71	-19.78
18 Jul 2026	1013.56	1016.50	-23.95	-27.02	-19.48
17 Jul 2026	1013.50	1016.95	-27.09	-26.34	-19.15
16 Jul 2026	1013.27	1018.25	-36.50	-25.58	-18.73
15 Jul 2026	1012.10	1017.65	-40.01	-24.45	-18.16
14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92
11 Jul 2026	1011.77	1015.80	-30.66	-23.06	-16.66
10 Jul 2026	1013.16	1015.45	-19.94	-22.84	-16.52
9 Jul 2026	1011.59	1014.45	-23.45	-22.68	-16.60
8 Jul 2026	1008.90	1015.20	-44.63	-22.32	-16.71
7 Jul 2026	1009.02	1015.35	-44.81	-21.68	-16.58
6 Jul 2026	1011.31	1015.45	-31.33	-21.34	-16.28
5 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.25	-35.46	-21.21	-16.03
4 Jul 2026	1010.84	1015.20	-32.69	-21.02	-15.72

 

90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.

That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004).

*Corrected

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Seems delusional to think otherwise at this point tbh.

How was your winter forecast for last winter ? No one should put out a winter forecast this early no matter if it shows warmth or cold.

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions.

I think this happened a few years ago. We had a block but the air was stale.

Just give me coastal storms and I will roll the dice. I foresee alot of snow to rain events for my area.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+2 for Nino 3.4?

Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range.

 I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2.0 ONI in mid-July is pretty impressive. JJA ONI has never been higher than +1.6c [1997, 2015] since 1950.

[raindancewx]

The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly.

Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then.