2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

Still fairly weak correlations (compared to winter). I think the +AO/+NAO is a bigger contributor to all of this mid latitude heat rather than a non-coupled Nino response (it’s coupled). I don’t think we’ve seen this lack of high latitude blocking in previous super Nino summers and it may not be related to how the Nino itself is developing. Could be something else going on here entirely. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began. 

[LakePaste25]

Not even disagreeing with you or claiming you’re wrong just putting different theories out there  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying.