2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980:

1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018

I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8.

 The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small.

Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models continue building a Strong Aleutian ridge in the long range

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use it now along with the climate reanalyzer for composites

We can see why many have been noticing that despite the record developing El Niño, the sensible weather is more Niña-like. Record 100° heat a few weeks ago and the 90s reloading in a few days is probably reflecting the westward lean of the Nino forcing.

The cooler days in between are probably more of a Nino-like influence with the recent snows in the New England higher elevations.

 

I think this is manifesting as a weakened mid latitude cell via destructive interference. The westward leaning convection results in downstream mid latitude trough, which then results in subsidence downstream of the trough. Where the subsidence is occurring, it competes with where we expect a mid latitude trough from Nino influenced convection over the equator. So the end result is generally a weakened aleutian low as it must compete from subsidence caused by upstream troughing. 

The long range GEFS starts to bring these troughs closer together, more of what we’d expect in a Nino with a broad mid latitude cell extending east of the dateline.  

 

[snowman19]