2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

 

Ive noticed that too...and im certainly NOT one of them lol. I love cold.

But it goes without saying that "cold" and "mild" are extremely subjective terms. Cold in Detroit is different than cold in NYC, to say nothing of the difference between NYC and where you live, and so on. 

A mild winter here will still be cold enough to snow much of the time. This is why as always storm track/pattern is more important than just temps. I hear the east coast guys talk of their worst winters where they can count on on one hand the number of times it snowed. Its a lock that its going to snow here dozens of times...the key is will there be worthwhile storms? Will it be abnormally dry? And so on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May finishes with a -13.22 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI Months (out of 121 Total months):

1. Feb 24: -15.55

2. May 23: -15.26

3. Feb 19: -14.62

4. Sept 23: -13.87

5. May 26: -13.22

6. Sept 19: -12.72

April-May finishes with a -23.10 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI 2-Months:

1. Aug-Sept 24: -24.72

2. Apr-May 26: -23.10

3. Feb-Mar 19: -21.10

All others above -20

[forkyfork]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC continuing to go with El Nino jet stream

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

[snowman19]

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course.