2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 2024 was NOT forecast to be a cold month in the midwest.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2024-02/Feb2024_tempoutlook.gif?itok=NFbaJvRE

I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic.

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between.

In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West.

[LakePaste25]

Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed  convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.