2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? 

The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. 

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST)

 

The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 

 

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

@roardog Yes on the +PDO

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event

Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?