2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I like focusing on where the +30C warm pools are. Since the actual forcing driving our sensible weather follows those areas. The current forecast is for split forcing centers near the Dateline and off of Mexico in late May.That Dateline forcing is closer to near record Nino 4 and MJO 7 and the forcing further east is with the record +PMM.

Confidence growing in another massive WWB and DWKW. Also, good point about the extreme +PMM causing a secondary area of forcing

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO vs PNA VP

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

mario ramirez super nino

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

mario ramirez super nino

Your point? All he did was post the model run

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your point? All he did was post the model run

just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? 

Be back now...hard at work on post season analysis. Just complete.

[snowman19]

The subsurface continues to boil….

The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship.

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event has any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI