2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? 
 

Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos

[winter_warlock]

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

[GaWx]

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year.

1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8:
 But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... 

Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super

57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May

65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May

72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May

82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May

91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog

97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May

15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May

[snowman19]

Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s

[snowman19]

A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response

^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves

09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far

This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

 Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, pre-1950 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and especially 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

Here’s the RONI plumes that Ben tweeted that @snowman19just posted:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/2053479903761498266/photo/1

 -4 of these 10 would be a new record RONI (goes back to 1950): CMCC, BoM, JMA, NCEP (CFSv2 keeps rising and is now +2.7 for seasonal peak as Prof. Eliot just tweeted). 

-Euro is close to a 1982-3 redux

-OTOH, the UKMET, which has performed as one of the better models over the years, doesn’t even reach +2.0 for RONI monthly and peaks at only +2.3 for ONI monthly. So, the UKMET still isn’t even close to the record +2.7 monthly/+2.5 seasonal record RONI peaks of 1982-3 even though it appears to be a couple of tenths warmer than its prior run.

-So, whereas the majority of the better models suggest at least a 1982-3 redux is a good possibility, the UKMET is still ~0.7 cooler than 1982-3 on a RONI basis even with this slightly warmer run. That along with certain May model runs (like Euro longterm and BoM more recently) still being subject to notable warm bias are enough to still keep me wary of the admittedly rising possibility that 2026-7 will at least get close to 1982-3. The chance of a 1982-3 redux or even warmer is rising but is still very far from a slam dunk. OTOH, getting a RONI super-strong peak is now ~60% chance in my mind. I’d have it higher than 60% if the UKMET weren’t still not reaching super even for a single month.

[jaxjagman]

We seem to headed towards a WQBO into summer,while the AAM and even SOI  is still not coupled quite well,they both look NINA and not NINO ATM

[snowman19]

We seem to headed towards a WQBO into summer,while the AAM and even SOI  is still not coupled quite well,they both look NINA and not NINO ATM

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still seems kinda strange why you dont see the AAM and SOI synced up.Im not saying this wont be a strong NINO,even CPC  today shows some pockets today of +8 down  into the subsurface.The next WWB seems to be  caused by a ERW into the eastern PAC,whicH we havent seen these strong WWB so far

[jaxjagman]

These westerlies the models have been showing has been countered with strong easterlies,so they have failed to get much past the IDL,maybe its gonna be different this time,probably could be the strongest ERW east of the IDL yet in this event

[snowman19]

These westerlies the models have been showing has been countered with strong easterlies,so they have failed to get much past the IDL,maybe its gonna be different this time,probably could be the strongest ERW east of the IDL yet in this event

Yes. The next WWB late month is modeled as being amplified by an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ERW), which would trigger another DWKW and another big subsurface and surface warming push into the EPAC. If so, we would see a bunch of TC’s develop like the models are starting to advertise, causing more westerlies behind them, in their wake

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not really seeing much of a N. Pacific low or negative anomaly in the NPH area (-NOI) thus far. 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

Speaking of down south, you're going to love that last few runs of the Cfs2, especially February. 

[snowman19]

+IOD development. And it’s going to be off to the races….
 

[snowman19]

Here’s the RONI plumes that Ben tweeted that [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]just posted:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/2053479903761498266/photo/1

 -4 of these 10 would be a new record RONI (goes back to 1950): CMCC, BoM, JMA, NCEP (CFSv2 keeps rising and is now +2.7 for seasonal peak as Prof. Eliot just tweeted). 
-Euro is close to a 1982-3 redux
-OTOH, the UKMET, which has performed as one of the better models over the years, doesn’t even reach +2.0 for RONI monthly and peaks at only +2.3 for ONI monthly. So, the UKMET still isn’t even close to the record +2.7 monthly/+2.5 seasonal record RONI peaks of 1982-3 even though it appears to be a couple of tenths warmer than its prior run.
-So, whereas the majority of the better models suggest at least a 1982-3 redux is a good possibility, the UKMET is still ~0.7 cooler than 1982-3 on a RONI basis even with this slightly warmer run. That along with certain May model runs (like Euro longterm and BoM more recently) still being subject to notable warm bias are enough to still keep me wary of the admittedly rising possibility that 2026-7 will at least get close to 1982-3. The chance of a 1982-3 redux or even warmer is rising but is still very far from a slam dunk. OTOH, getting a RONI super-strong peak is now ~60% chance in my mind. I’d have it higher than 60% if the UKMET weren’t still not reaching super even for a single month.

Agreed. Considering that is only the forecast through October and it will still be strengthening/warming at that point (the models have it peaking in November/December), with the added warming, it would almost certainly tie if not beat the all time RONI record since 1950, which was 1982-83, with 1997-98 being the 2nd. And it would also beat the record traditional ONI since 1950

[GaWx]

On 5/7/2026 at 1:01 AM, GaWx said:

 Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009.

 Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low:

18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti

 

 But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12).

 I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs.

 This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.

 We did finally get another 1012+ mb today at Darwin though only barely (1012.15) helping to bring today’s SOI down to -9.25, lowest in a week though still not a strong -SOI. However, Darwin SLP is forecasted to fall back very shortly.

 Looking ahead, the GFS not surprisingly (being that no other model had it) took away that tiny sfc low near Tahiti from its 5/12-13 maps and thus there won’t be those very strong -SOIs that an actual low would have generated. However, all of the models have general notably low pressure at Tahiti 5/14-6. That should result in notable -SOIs for those days. But because Darwin SLPs are also then progged to be somewhat BN, these won’t be as low as they could have been.
 

 Although Tahiti SLPs have been El Ninoish (- SLP anomalies) and will continue to be overall, Darwin SLPs still aren’t progged to be notably El Ninoish (+ anomalies). To get that, the N portion of the cold sfc highs coming from the cold regions to the south needs to extend more strongly further N into N Australia to get Darwin SLPs to go AN. They are forecast to rise back up modestly mid to late next week in N Australia on the N end of chilly high pressure, but it remains to be seen if they’ll rise that much at Darwin to result in a notably -SOI period then.

[GaWx]

On 5/9/2026 at 8:01 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

 Today’s weekly release has about as expected (due to the temporary pause in the warming) Nino 3.4 steady vs the prior week at +0.4. Nino 4 also remained steady at +0.5. Nino 3 rose slightly from +0.5 to +0.6. The more volatile (because much smaller) Nino 1+2 bounced back from +0.7 to +1.0:

Midweek date…..1+2……..3…..….3.4..…..4
 

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5

[snowman19]

Out of the last 4 “recent” super El Niño events (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), this one matches 1997 the closest, by far. Although this one is warmer in the subsurface than 1997 was. It looks nothing at all like 2015 at this time in either the subsurface or the surface. The DWKWs have just begun to surface at the coast of South America over the last couple of days. This one is certainly following a classic east-based/EP progression…..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. 

That one hugged South America

The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west

Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. 

That one hugged South America

The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west

Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997

Maybe, maybe not. We aren’t going to have a good idea where the forcing will actually set up during the winter for several more months. For now, so far, this event looks a lot more like 1997 than it does 2015

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997.