2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

You can generate on these two sites using ERA 5 dataset, Chuck....only issues are that the time periods are more restricted...ie I can't do DJFM, and there are no daily options....ie March 10-25, etc...

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern

The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring.

 The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring.

Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US.  Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite. 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US.  Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite. 

Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.

Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry

[jaxjagman]

Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards  a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol

Edit:meant westerly WQBO

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards  a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol

Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 
 
 In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next few months

 

 

 

 

This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 

Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 
 
 In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..

Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time

Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020.  77% +SOI during that time

Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo

[snowman19]

Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time

Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020.  77% +SOI during that time
Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo

The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris

 To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least  ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record.

 This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

The tropical forcing tends to focus in areas where the absolute SSTs approach +30C regardless of the departures getting smaller due to climate change. This is one of the reasons that the forcing was so much further west in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 than in 1997-1998.

But it’s possible that if the RONI remains lower relative to the ONI again like in 2023-2024, we may not get the stronger Aleutian Low development like in earlier El Niños. Same for the trough that usually sets up over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast which was missing back in 2023-2024. 

Still too early to tell if the troughs will be weaker again like in 2023-2024 allowing more Southeast ridge development than usual. It may be that if the El Niño gets stronger than 2023-2024 in both ONI and RONI, we get more of a traditional stronger Aleutian Low and low in the Southeast.

Plus the warm pool east Japan could influence the jet development leading to weaker troughs also even if the SSTs are outside the 20N to 20S RONI range. 

Then we have the expansion of the subtropical ridges which could also come into play. Remember, we had a weak La Niña in 2025-2026 and the strongest subtropical ridge near the SW U.S. ever from November to March. So these ridges are becoming more dominant than the troughs.