2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):

 

That is what we want to see to avoid the dreaded cool-ENSO-like se ridge during the coming season IMHO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May usually has a pretty strong pattern correlation in El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

A bit of snow is falling tonight. This is the 5th year since 2016 to see May snow. Chuck called a cool May 2 months ago.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.

 

 

[snowman19]

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.


 
 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. The Euro did a great good job with that forecast. There was some skepticism when it was forecasting a peak near +3.0. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond