2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating.  Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.

I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.

No one wants cold now anyway

[Lucy Pull]

With the way forcing has been setup I’m feeling a warmer version of December 1997 than 2015. 
 

All bets off if we pop an eastern ridge and it connects with the Canadian ridge.
 

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating.  Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.

Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly.

So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño.

We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs  during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly.

So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño.

We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs  during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.