2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

Weeklies?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies?

Today’s aren't out yet.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.

‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4
‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC). 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC). 

Here’s the breakdown of Oct vs DJF NAO for +1.4+ Ninos since 1950:

2023: - +
2015: + +
2009: - -
1997: - N
1991: N +
1986: + -
1982: - +
1972: + +
1965: + -
1957: + -

 So, of the 5 +Oct, DJF was - thrice and + twice fwiw

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^5-1-3 Opposite for + Oct NAO states. About matches the 80-year composite which is 55% opposite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

 

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

-2023 isn't a great analog because

1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is

2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be

3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0

—————
-2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based

———

-2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based

————

-2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

It was just a hypothetical comment.