2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[OSUmetstud]

If you want it, I was able to do some area averages in QGIS myself for 80 °N relative to ERA5 1991–2020 Normals

May -0.2 °C

June -0.4 °C

July -0.2 °C

August 0.9 °C

Another piece of evidence—Arctic Sea ice extent is near the 2011–2020 average. It was not a crazy melt summer but it was not particularly cold, either. 

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro issues an extended forecast every two months. These really long range forecasts aren’t always the most accurate.

But Nino 1.2 has reached a new all-rime high of +5.345. This is even beyond what the Euro was forecasting. So the warm pool in the EPAC is stronger than anything that we have seen.

This makes it plausible that this event could linger at least into next June. Even models like the CFS which had this peaking in +1.2 at only +4.5 are showing it going into at least next June in 1+2.  

The record breaking WWBs just keep pushing the warm pool further east than model forecasts. So such an extreme heat build up in the EPAC will take to wind down.

 

As expected, the CFSv2 is going to be way off with Nino 1+2, forecasting a drop that never came. 

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

As expected, the CFSv2 is going to be way off with Nino 1+2, forecasting a drop that never came. 

 

While the Euro is doing better with +1.2, it’s still too low also. Probably related to the models underestimating the strength of the WWBs in the longer range. The next Euro update on the 5th should be interesting when the warmer current conditions are incorporated into the new forecast. The EPS weeklies have been closer.

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Did you notice that the 3 ensembles as of 0z runs continue showing a decently +NAO thru mid October? 

@Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to DJFM NAO. I don't know if that's true given 250+ years of examples though.