2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we are still only getting a snapshot for the start of October, a +EPO is classic La Niña for October. We’ll see if heights can rebound a bit near Alaska which is more typical for El Niño. Still to early to tell where the ridge and trough locations finish for the entire month.
 

 

 

 

The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The +EPO is, but the H5 itself is not entirely cool ENSO flavored however, as the low is displaced SW will of BC into the GOA. 

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.
 

 

[raindancewx]

Wettest month in ABQ since July 2015. Outside chance we set the record for rain for at least the modern measurement site by month end, something like 4.06".

We're at 2.75"+ and plenty more rain is forecast by the end of the month.

1940 and 1997 were the two prior wettest September El Nino months locally, but we've surpassed both.

New Mexico is the land of ENSO, so good to see at least the wet signal now showing up robustly. That said, the wettest Septembers here are often East El Nino setups or Modoki La Nina setups, where E Pac is > W Pac for water temp anomalies at the equator. Sept itself is not correlated strongly for precip to 3.4, so several of the top wet months here are La Ninas.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes

AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November

[GaWx]

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23rd) is right in between those:

[LakePaste25]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.
 

 

It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see. 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening. Normal 60F water is 80F. That's why Charles Darwin chose the area for evolutionary thesis.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range. 

Hope this becomes a theme for the winter. +PNA can really mitigate the Pacific Puke in Canada.

[bluewave]

Another PDO drop as we approach the all-time warmest SSTs this time of year ENE of Japan and south of the Aleutians.