2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes.

1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with....

My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe something like this?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.

[snowman19]

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

[snowman19]

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes.
1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with....
My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

[michsnowfreak]

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. 

Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

 

 

 

 

We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....