2026-2027 El Nino

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago.

Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month. 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. 

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however. 

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 

Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record.

All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. 

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 This tweet is deceptive. I’m surprised the smart pro met. Ethan said this. Of course the SSTs are significantly warmer than 29 years ago due to GW. But you know that the measure of Nino strength isn’t SST but rather SSTa.

 Relative SSTa:

02APR1997         1.1       -0.3        0.1        1.1

01APR2026         0.6       -0.3       -0.2        0.3
 

 So, per relative anomalies, not only is 2026 not warmer than 1997, it is 0.5 cooler in 1+2, 0.3 cooler in 3.4, and 0.8 cooler in 4! 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 

 @mitchnick

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

15/16 was the last strong Niño, which is why I used it. But your observation supports the idea that you need a lot of things to go right to get a strong Niño and a warm start helps a lot.