February 2026

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

So nothing of importance to discuss locally? Asking for a friend. 

Not really unless the GFS scores a Coup.

[John1122]

20 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

So nothing of importance to discuss locally? Asking for a friend. 

A hail mary shot in elevated Eastern areas this weekend.  Severe thread may have some activity. Otherwise, spring-like weather as we close February and begin March. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Weatheriscool said:

So nothing of importance to discuss locally? Asking for a friend. 

18z GFS still has some snow for the Plateau, NE TN region, and Apps.  It is more aggressive than other models.  I don't trust it at this point.  So, instead of a thread that is flatlined....just talking Mammoth.  

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Weatheriscool said:

So nothing of importance to discuss locally? Asking for a friend. 

I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March.  As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy.  I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10.  I don't think that entire time frame will be cold.  I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there.  If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN.  The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th.  I do think we may well track one last storm.  For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention.  I don't do severe.

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm.  Some chances are embedded in that run.

[Carvers Gap]

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow.  I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

[Carvers Gap]

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

[John1122]

Mammoth latest webcam snap shot.

 

This is just an incredible storm for them. 

When they are getting blitzed, we are having extremely warm weather as a rule. The cold shot we will have for a couple of days Sunday-Tuesday is unusual for us when they are getting hammered. (They have another 3-5 feet event predicted Tuesday and Wednesday) 

The PNA is negative to maybe neutral, near record cold in Alaska is possible, and the AO/NAO are opposite of where we need them. It will be hard to turn that around enough to have many winter chances for non-elevated areas before the season is essentially over in mid-March. We may see flakes in the air, but impactful snow for most areas is likely done until next late November or December. 

All in all the winter was decent here for frozen, but could have been much better with the two cold periods we got. The Ohio Valley, and Northeast cashed in this winter. The Rockies struggled mightily but winter ends there in May, so all hope isn't lost for them. 

[Icy Hot]

Intense line of rain and wind rolling through. Wind gusts over 45 mph and downpours! Ground is saturated by this week’s rains so trees could be coming down soon.

[nrgjeff]

We live vicariously through the Sierra Nevada cement snow. Also we're spoiled by a good season in most areas. Some years we'd be salivating over this weekend. Let's have some fun with the upside potential 10% chance from WPC experimental probabilistic precip. portal from the Winter tab. 72-hr fcst ignore the 24 hr.

Note that 50/50 most likely model forecast consensus lines up with the main WPC front page and winter page. Probably not much snow south of MRX in the Valley. Let's see if the Tri Cities can surprise.