1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[John1122]

Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier. 

Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties. 

The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in! 

[John1122]

The trend map for the Euro is west, west, west, west. I'm not sure if it can go much further west or not. 

[John1122]

The Euro went from barely touching the Eastern mountains to this. 

 

 

[John1122]

Granted, I should probably look to my avatar. 

[John1122]

The NAM is winding our energy up over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri at 06z, 72hrs, at 78 at 0z it wasn't quite wound yet and was over SE Missouri.

[John1122]

In response, we are getting nammed, almost state wide by 78. Looks like the RGEM.

[John1122]

Ratios are 17 to 20:1 on the NAM across the state as snow is falling.  Just south of Nashville, and in NE Tn from earlier snow, 4-6 inches have fallen at 84 and it's still snowing over the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area. Alabama and Georgia are in the game.

[John1122]

RGEM looks like it's winding the vort up tighter further NW as well vs 0z.

The ICON, while not quite enough for most of us, jumped west 200 miles.

[John1122]

RGEM takes the ULL from Memphis to North Alabama, and it's stronger than it was at 0z. Still snowing over the eastern half of the state with 1-3 inches down from Nashville to Cookeville, and 3-5 inches down from Cookeville eastward.

[Windspeed]

I feel completely opposite versus last weekend's lead time into the event for a snow storm. Obviously, that transitioned into worry for the ice storm. But with respect to all snow, perhaps even significant totals, my confidence is growing. Got to love recent trends with a stronger and slower mid-to-upper low versus the coastal surface low. If the moisture feed is there, that ULL will eat. Very cold column and high ratios. I guess if I get my heart broken, so be it. I am all in on this system.

[John1122]

The GFS has a 986 low bombing just inside Hatteras or over it. 4-12 inches has fallen over East Tennessee by that point. Looks like it pulls away NE rather than heading up the coast.

[John1122]

The AI GFS QPF totals, .14 in Nashville, with generally 17:1 to 20:1 ratios.  .20 the next tier of counties eastward, trailing SE towards Chattanooga. Around .30 in Cookeville to McMinn Co. .40 in counties along the 75 corridor from my area down to Knoxville. .5 around Morristown. .5 to .7 along the NC border areas into SW VA. The DGZ in nearly to the surface with -12c being around 2400 feet and high humidity from there to 700mb.

[John1122]

Weather Next 00z has the .25-.50 line back to my area with .50 creeping into NE Tn. The 18z crapped out and never finished. That is a big improvement west over 12z yesterday, which barely had the .25-.50 in far NE Tn.

[fountainguy97]

Models are in pretty good agreement with regards to the ULL energy diving a precip maxima from ETN down into SC/NC.  The main question continues to be the coastal.

 

ON euro/gfs/nam our starting ratios are 15:1 and peak at 24:1 toward the end of the event. It won't take much qpf at all. 
 

.5 qpf at 15:1 is 7.5" 

[fountainguy97]

Here are the latest models. 7 of them.  All of them in agreement about the ULL sliding moisture. Vary degrees of intensity.  
 

and then the GFS with the coastal lol