2026 Foothills thread

[strongwxnc]

Options on the table:

 

AFD 6:22 GSP

Key message 4: A potential winter storm system could affect the area
this weekend but details remain highly uncertain.

The bigger story for the forecast continues to be the potential for
a winter storm to sweep across a wide swath of the south, from the
central CONUS to the Carolinas. What we know at this point is a
signal in model guidance has pointed to a strong continental polar
(cP) air mass spilling into the central portion of the U.S. and
spreading eastward. Meanwhile, moisture appears to stretch over the
south and southeast ahead of the frontal boundary. Somewhere along
this frontal boundary, wintry precipitation will likely form. Now,
this is where the uncertainty comes into play as there are many
factors that will change and directly influence this system for our
area. The primary factor being the location of the transition zone
from snow to a wintry mix, involving sleet and ice. Current model
guidance from the GFS has shifted the transition zone further north,
bringing the potential for more of an ice event than snow. The EURO
keeps the snow as the primary p-type. Many of the GEFS members show
a mix of ice and snow. The main point is that yes, the model
guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over
the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high
pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff
precipitation chances entirely. It`s a low chance, but still in the
realm if possibilities. But, despite these forecast tools, there is
still much uncertainty to where the transition zone sets up, which
directly impacts how much snow vs ice vs nothing there could be.

Another factor increasing confidence in this potential winter storm
is the cold air that is expected to be in place. Unlike systems
recently where there was a chance for snow, the environment lacked
the cold air required for any wintry precip to develop. This is
looking to not be the case for this potential event. Currently, the
NBM has increased probabilities of accumulations that could bring
about warnings for snow (40%) and ice (35%). So, overall, there is a
strong signal for a possible winter storm that could impact the area
over the weekend, but details on snow/ice/sleet remain unclear this
far out.

[calculus1]

55 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Options on the table:

AFD 6:22 GSP

Key message 4: A potential winter storm system could affect the area
this weekend but details remain highly uncertain.

Yes, lots of them. Most seem to be very good for us, if we are okay with any type of wintry weather.

By the way, I really like the change to the "Key Message" format of the NWS GSP AFDs, rather than the short-term, mid-term, and long-term format of prior years.

[BooneWX]

Poking around on my GSP forecast, kickoff time is actually around 10pm Friday. With that….we’re three days out now

[wncsnow]

Yea definitely less than 4 days til go time now. Praying for no major jumps north..

[calculus1]

I'm just so unused to forecasts like this. This is rather mind-blowing:

[WNC_Fort]

Now let’s not tempt fate and go suppressed with our storm…

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Now let’s not tempt fate and go suppressed with our storm…

South is the risk, not north. I keep saying this.

[WNC_Fort]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

South is the risk, not north. I keep saying this.

Very keen to see the GEFS

[WXNewton]

Let's see what ensembles show, I feel like they will not be as suppressed and we will be in a good spot. I have study the GFS op many times over the years and it always seems to weaken the precip field through hrs 80-114 timeframe.

[WXNewton]

12Z GEFS is North of OP, pretty much lock and step with 6z GEFS, maybe a hair or two south and colder, but overall is a big hit. It's also extending back and trying to keep a weak feed all the way back to southern California. Kinda of puts NC in what I used to say was the firehose of precip. Definitely trending towards a slower longer lasting event.

[wncsnow]

30 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

South is the risk, not north. I keep saying this.

I was skeptical at first but you might be onto something 

[SnowDawg]

Largely agree but individual ensemble members still say north is a risk.

[wncsnow]

Yeah GEFS was slightly north. More mixing for us 

[WXNewton]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yeah GEFS was slightly north. More mixing for us 

It was north of the op, but it actually was a little further south and weaker than 6z GEFS.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

It was north of the op, but it actually was a little further south and weaker than 6z GEFS.

Snow totals were less here for 12Z.

[WXNewton]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Snow totals were less here for 12Z.

Yeah that's because it was a little weaker with precip amounts, moisture was not as heavy during the heart of the storm as 6z. Verbatim it was a tad weaker and south.

[wncsnow]

Euro run will be fascinating. 

[WNC_Fort]

Being in the foothills is so fun. I’ll literally take anything at this point. But, we’re so close to historic territory. 
 

We need the Baja low to beef up the precipitation but not too much interaction because it leads to mixed precipitation. But, if we tend weaker, we lose the precipitation and the cutoff becomes too close for comfort

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Being in the foothills is so fun. I’ll literally take anything at this point. But, we’re so close to historic territory. 
 

We need the Baja low to beef up the precipitation but not too much interaction because it leads to mixed precipitation. But, if we tend weaker, we lose the precipitation and the cutoff becomes too close for comfort

We always have to thread the needle. I do feel like we will see a flatter weaker system over the next day or two and then, I feel like on Thursday models beef back up again. Right now you have to stick with ensembles and the GEFS have not moved much from each other the past few runs. Ens over OP for the next two days.

[buckeyefan1]

As we wait for 12z, here’s 6z for mby

[WNC_Fort]

You can tell people are wound up. The GFS came south so some worried about suppression. Now the Euro is warmer so we’re worried about missing to the North (with more mixing). Gonna be a wild few days. 
 

What’s the timing looking like now anyway? Still Saturday-Sunday?