Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

So are we gonna have a nor Easter this weekend or is it going to be beautiful? Models have flipped and flopped (besides GFS which has held firm with no storm)

 Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

[GaWx]

 No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OB. Edit: confirmed

[GaWx]

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro:

The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda.

12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect.

12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out.

OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending that the 12Z Euro shows.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell).

 Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it.

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell).

 Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it, too.

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore 

 The 18Z GFS came well W and is thus the most threatening GFS run yet by far to the E coast with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE.

 Back to 12Z, the JMA has it for its first time and hits much of the SE solidly with this with much of the Carolinas and S VA getting a very beneficial 2”+ of rain the next 8 days:

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

[NorthHillsWx]

The level of anxiety this forum would have if this system was in January would be through the roof 

[BornAgain13]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The level of anxiety this forum would have if this system was in January would be through the roof 

That anxiety is soon coming lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS has the coastal directly affecting the OB rather substantially. The 0Z Icon is similar to recent runs a bit further offshore than this GFS.

[GaWx]

0Z CMC:

 

0Z JMA:

 

0Z UKMET like the 12Z and 18Z is well offshore.

[NorthHillsWx]

Trend has definitely been towards a stronger tucked coastal. Major impacts for obx looking likely now with prolonged exposure to NE wind and fetch with strong winds on land as well. Inland this should deliver moderate but beneficial rain. If this is a sign for what’s in store this winter I’ll be very happy, this is a snowstorm setup just a couple months too early 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Trend has definitely been towards a stronger tucked coastal. Major impacts for obx looking likely now with prolonged exposure to NE wind and fetch with strong winds on land as well. Inland this should deliver moderate but beneficial rain. If this is a sign for what’s in store this winter I’ll be very happy, this is a snowstorm setup just a couple months too early 

 
 The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the UK runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast.

 I wonder if this should have its own thread in the SE forum soon since the threat for a major impact on at least E NC has increased substantially. It’s also being discussed in the main tropical thread because it may very well turn out to be ST or hybrid.

12Z Icon, GFS, GFS AI, RGEM, and JMA all have it.

12Z UKMET has it but not as close to NC as the 6Z. Thus its direct effect on  NC OB is more limited than 6Z and all other 12Z models pending the Euro/Euro AI.

Edit: The 12Z Euro-AI has it close to NC, but the regular Euro is actually further out than its recent runs and is near the 12Z UKMET

[GaWx]

 About as beautiful and comfortable a full late Oct week as is possible for outdoor activities is in the cards this week for a large portion of the SE away from E NC with lots of sunshine, high temps in the 60s-70s, mainly 15 mph or lower winds after today, and dewpoints down in the 30s-40s. We can thank persistent mainly N to NE winds resulting from three sprawling areas of Canadian high pressure centered to our NE, helped by persistent low pressure offshore the E coast especially the first half of this week. Enjoy it while you can, especially with the amount of rainfall expected Nov-March due to the very strong Nino.