January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

NAMMing has commenced 

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

NAM looks to be shifting west too so far.

Yep…NAM is looking good for ETN

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

90-114? So 24 hours? Am I reading you wrong?


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Yes, but that may not be with every ensemble member added. So it could go up or down. It looks like it tries to start a low in the eastern gulf that moves NNE up off North Carolina. 

[Vol4Life]

Noticeable differences at 500 between NAM 18z and 00z.  00z dug more and was further west.  

[John1122]

The NAM was still a little east with the vort vs the 18z GFS that did so well. 

[Carvers Gap]

24 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

How far is too far away?


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Bout right there.  I rarely get good snows in IMBY from a slp east of Hatteras.  I still tend to think this is going to have to be home cooked northern stream energy at the end of the day - IF that is the slp location.  But sometimes we get that lee side low which backs precip.  For me, this is a little too finesse for my liking.  Just need a good ol' fashioned low cranking 50 miles inland.  Any energy handoff is almost always a problem for E TN.  

[Daniel Boone]

Will we ever get an old fashioned Gulf Miller A . A Southern Alabama Central Georgia up through the NC Piedmont Track. Or a true Slider across Central Miss., Ala, Georgia and on up the Piedmont. Either would bury us.

[fountainguy97]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Bout right there.  I rarely get good snows in IMBY from a slp east of Hatteras.  I still tend to think this is going to have to be home cooked northern stream energy at the end of the day - IF that is the slp location.  But sometimes we get that lee side low which backs precip.  For me, this is a little too finesse for my liking.  Just need a good ol' fashioned low cranking 50 miles inland.  Any energy handoff is almost always a problem for E TN.  

Yeah this trend is good for those east of our forum area. But a good trend for them also probably helps increase the energy we have to play around with. 
 

We pretty much want the same thing but it'll be different pieces driving the bus for us compared to the ENC crew. 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah this trend is good for those east of our forum area. But a good trend for them also probably helps increase the energy we have to play around with. 
 

We pretty much want the same thing but it'll be different pieces driving the bus for us compared to the ENC crew. 

I have seen systems like this stop right at the crest of the Apps.  I do think we see some light snow from the northern stream.  I remain unconvinced this gets enhanced by the Atlantic...for most of E TN (edit).  Backing would help prolong the light snow.  I think those high end amounts are incredibly unlikely unless that slp shifts to the coast or just inland.  I could see far E TN counties benefiting for sure due to orographic lift.  This looks like "an east of I81" type of storm - so far.  Tomorrow likely dials in this track.  Need some big moves overnight for anyone west of the foothills to score more than 1-2" with this.

[John1122]

The earlier/further west the ull pinches off, the better our odds of getting some decent qpf thrown our way. Unfortunately, the ICON does it over Virgina and we get nothing. Fortunately, it's the ICON. 

[John1122]

The RGEM is a little west vs 18z, which looked pretty good itself. 

[John1122]

RGEM gets almost the entire state involved and may have been going to go for at least a very decent event. 

[John1122]

RGEM is winding up the vort over Memphis that run. 

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

RGEM is winding up the vort over Memphis that run. 

Perfect.

[John1122]

So far, the GFS is slightly west at 500mb vs 18z. 

[John1122]

Through 66, the GFS may look even better than the RGEM. 

[John1122]

The GFS is basically a carbon copy of the RGEM at 500mb, but not quite at the surface. Could be the higher resolution of the RGEM coming into play. 

[John1122]

It ended up exactly where the RGEM was at 84 and just sends steady, high ratio moderate snow from Nashville East. 2-3 inches in the mid-state, 5-8+ as you hit the Plateau and head east. 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, John1122 said:

It ended up exactly where the RGEM was at 84 and just sends steady, high ratio moderate snow from Nashville East. 2-3 inches in the mid-state, 5-8+ as you hit the Plateau and head east. 

I'll cash out now please lol

[John1122]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

I'll cash out now please lol

For the eastern border counties, it would be an all-time contender. 12-18 inches of powder that falls with temps in the teens or colder. 

[Wurbus]

AIGFS has .4 QPF for KNX and .7 for TRI. Pretty much the same as 18z.

[WintryMixmaster]

 

If the main mechanism to provide lift is the saturated air rising under the 500 mb low and hitting the Plateau/Smokies, should we expect a more distinct area of lower snow totals up the center of the valley? The GFS has a bit of one but it ends just SW of Oak Ridge. Would a higher resolution model probably sharpen that gradient and lower totals from Knoxville northeast along the valley floor?

[Reb]

This is for BAM wishcasting the last storm north. Feeling pretty confident here in Seymour

[Hurricaneguy]

Not getting hooked on this one early like last week. Too much will change. If it’s showing good snow by Thursday night for East TN then it’ll have my attention. 

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

For the eastern border counties, it would be an all-time contender. 12-18 inches of powder that falls with temps in the teens or colder. 

May finally end the string of bad luck..problem is due to the last system not evolving the way it did, I dont think people will take the next one that seriously

[Vol4Life]

Ol’ Carver is downplaying this and he’s going to end up with a foot!  lol!

[TellicoWx]

9 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

 

If the main mechanism to provide lift is the saturated air rising under the 500 mb low and hitting the Plateau/Smokies, should we expect a more distinct area of lower snow totals up the center of the valley? The GFS has a bit of one but it ends just SW of Oak Ridge. Would a higher resolution model probably sharpen that gradient and lower totals from Knoxville northeast along the valley floor?

Possibly a resolution issue

[Vol4Life]

CMC at 0z is a nice hit from Nashville East.  Improvement from 12z with westward expansion of accumulation 

[John1122]

The Canadian is about in line with the Euro Ai now, once ratio'd.

[Vol4Life]

GEFS mean at 0z is almost identical to 18z

Edit:  0z is a a little improved.