January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

And where the GFS tries to send a slug of moisture up west of the Apps at the last minute....I don't play that game!  That feature almost always trends east.  But again, probably a good thing that this system doesn't boomerang trend into the mid-state.

[Carvers Gap]

Man, that is a LONG fetch of frozen precip on the 12z GFS.  At 129, snow stretches from southwest New Mexico to Wilmington, NC.  Ice sits directly south of that line.  Textbook over-running setup.

[Carvers Gap]

Chattanooga w/ 7" of snow on that run.  

[Vol4Life]

NC looks like they get hammered on that run.

[Carvers Gap]

Just watching the GEM roll.  At 72 hours, its Yukon high is smidge stronger at 1050 when compared to 0z.  I noticed the same minor change in increasing expansiveness of that hp early in the ongoing GFS run.

At 81, the hp is at 1053.  I have to think another suppressed solution is incoming.  I don't know for sure, but I would guess that.

[Wurbus]

I don't know what will happen, but GFS is stubborn on that baja low and it's still off the coast at 150. CMC has it coming inland at 100.

[Matthew70]

I’m hoping this is not a trend to stay south of most of TN.

[Carvers Gap]

Of note the 12z ICON is a bit north of its 6z run but no significant change in its hp(mid 1040s).  The 12z GEM and GFS are not budging w/ that hp.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

I’m hoping this is not a trend to stay south of most of TN.

Don't want' to be bullseye w/ an over-running system at this range.  Need some modeling south of us in my experience.

[Wurbus]

CMC is looking more icy for most of TN at 120.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEM definitely not suppressed.  Big winter storm on that map at 126 on Pivotal - usually earlier than wxbell and I often forget that!

[fountainguy97]

We are right in the middle of solutions so far at 12z.  CMC north, GFS south with euro having been in the middle at 06z. That is precisely where you want to be at this stage.  

[Wurbus]

CMC pops a low in N GA at 132and is going to be crippling ice for a majority of TN on this run with some band end snow likely

[Wurbus]

CMC has Knoxville at 2.4" freezing rain and it's still not finished

[Carvers Gap]

Upwards of 3" of ZR in E TN on that CMC run per pivotalwx.

[Wurbus]

Hard pass on that CMC run. If that happens, East TN going to have no power for weeks.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Upwards of 3" of ZR in E TN on that CMC run per pivotalwx.

It ran out of color contours lol. 

[nrgjeff]

CMC is goin' Quebec 1998 on us. I doubt it'll happen, but the Euro remains concerning. I prefer GFS runs.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the CMC is about to do something pretty wild later in its run with the left over shortwaves over N dakota and New Mexico

Every time I try to speculate, lol. disregard the above. 

[Carvers Gap]

This thought crossed my mind as I looked at the CMC this morning at 0z.  That looks like an anafront hybrid(w/ over-running).  This run wasn't necessarily more amped....it was surprisingly flatter.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Every time I try to speculate, lol. disregard the above. 

Haha.  Same.  I just don't even bother to strike it out anymore.  I just assume folks see the error in my ways and politely move along!!!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If it keeps to its schedule from last night, Euro AIFS should start up around 12:15. 

[Carvers Gap]

On the 12z CMC, we see a slight weakening of the hp to the NW of the storm by 3-4mbs.  Maybe that is a trend towards the AIFS???

[Chattownsnow]

We need the 12z GFS to get a lil' bit of AIFS in its veins. 

With an overrunning set up like this and that intense arctic boundary couldn’t we expect a more robust precip field at go time than modeled? It’s certainly not meager by any means but given this set up, wouldn’t it be at least likely we see more QPF produced at go time? I haven’t looked at Dews during this time though so I’m sure that would play a factor


.

[Carvers Gap]

What we are seeing on the CMC is severe cold crashing into and undercutting an over-running event which doesn't get out of the way.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

for posterity (or at least until imgur deletes them)

 

FRAM estimate:

[Carvers Gap]

The snow map or the 12z CMC is very similar to the 6z AIFS.  We had better hope the ice map trends that way as well!  If the AIFS holds at 12z, I would say that is a somewhat of a cave by the Canadian model.  One more run, and that slp likely cuts w/ that trend.

[TellicoWx]

See 12z for MBY went about way would expect lol...ice. Scary part is the GFS AI corrected course until it cropped out on pivotal. Last frame matches CMC pretty close

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

See 12z for MBY went about way would expect lol...ice. Scary part is the GFS AI corrected course until it cropped out on pivotal. Last frame matches CMC pretty close

Oh dang.  The 12z AIGFS did correct southward by quite a bit.

[TellicoWx]

The lighter ICON is worse to me..lighter precipitation plus colder surface...easier for to accumulate on powerlines.