January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Scottie16]

The AI models do struggle with strong HPs and I think that’s what we are seeing with both.


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[John1122]

The Euro looks like a blend of the AI and Canadian probably. 

[Scottie16]

The Euro looks like a blend of the AI and Canadian probably. 

Euro at 108


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[Scottie16]

Lost of similarities to the CMC at 114 John


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[Scottie16]

Euro at 120


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[John1122]

The Euro is snow for most of the state, a bad ice storm along and south of 40 in East Tennessee that should change to snow. 

[TellicoWx]

12 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

 

So is the difference between the UKIE/Euro AI and GFS/CMC/ICON a timing issue? If the storm takes too long to get here, it amplifies and gives time for the eastern HP to move out, letting it attack the weakness in the banana high?

The evolution of the HP is key. The GFS/GEM/Icon...the HP is anchored in the Midwest over the top of everything. The AIFS develops a banana HP, which is not exactly what you want in this scenario. A) it allows for a stronger LP to develop and  Banana HP is one of the ingredients needed for Miller B's and Miller A/B Hybrids. If you want a true Miller A or overrunning event in the upper south an anchored HP is what you want not a banana.

[Scottie16]

132


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[John1122]

Eventually the whole forum area turns to snow except that sliver in SE TN and N Alabama. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

The AI models do struggle with strong HPs and I think that’s what we are seeing with both.


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AI models have almost a completely different alignment and evolution of hp over the top of this storm.  Are they right?  IDK.  But deterministic modeling is almost uniformly placing more cold hp above or just to the NW of the system whereas the AI models quickly dissipate the hp over and behind the system.  Are they right?  IDK that either!

The 12z Euro jogged south of its 18z run, and is a tick north of its 12z run.  Pretty decent agreement w/ the three deterministic models.   It is not surprising to see models jog north a bit.  However, there remains a risk of suppression w/ this and even at the last minute if those big highs verify to the north and northwest of the storm and can persist longer than AI models depict.  Important aspects still to be ironed out, but we are getting closer to a solution - maybe.

As of now, we are potentially tracking a strong winter storm which could impact portions of the forum area.  Nothing written in stone at this time, but we will see where this goes.

[Scottie16]

AI models have almost a completely different alignment and evolution of hp over the top of this storm.  Are they right?  IDK.  But deterministic modeling is almost uniformly placing more cold hp above or just to the NW of the system whereas the AI models quickly dissipate the hp over and behind the system.  Are they right?  IDK that either!
The 12z Euro jogged south of its 18z run, and is a tick north of its 12z run.  Pretty decent agreement w/ the three deterministic models.   It is not surprising to see models jog north a bit.  However, there remains a risk of suppression w/ this and even at the last minute if those big highs verify to the north and northwest of the storm and can persist longer than AI models depict.  Important aspects still to be ironed out, but we are getting closer to a solution - maybe.
As of now, we are potentially tracking a strong winter storm which will impact portions of the forum area.  Nothing written in stone at this time, but we will see where this goes.

I like the maybe lol! We are seeing agreement within 150 hrs so that’s something we all know.

Now we have the ironing out part until Wednesday at the earliest! It looks to be a rollercoaster for sure.


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[Scottie16]

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[John1122]

We go deep into the ice box on the Euro with that snow cover. Some -10ish stuff showing up in Western areas. 

[TellicoWx]

Euro OP ever so slightly tried to nose the LP up the spine of the Apps vs 12z, which allowed the 850s to surge up. 

[TellicoWx]

With surface temps area wide in the 20s..that lights out recipe south of 40

[Scottie16]

Just had a random though that this is kinda similar to the January 14th 24’ storm


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[Scottie16]

With surface temps area wide in the 20s..that lights out recipe south of 40

The last thing our county needs.


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[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

With surface temps area wide in the 20s..that lights out recipe south of 40

The Euro is less QPF than other models, but would still have around .7 qpf as ice down that way, capped with some snow. 

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is less QPF than other models, but would still have around .7 qpf as ice down that way, capped with some snow. 

As @Scottie16said...last thing our county needs. Lately if a squirrel farts wrong, Flec seems to lose transmission lol.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

As @Scottie16said...last thing our county needs. Lately if a squirrel farts wrong, Flec seems to lose transmission lol.

With the near zero cold coming, it would potentially be a horrible situation. 

I feel you on the outages. We are frequent fliers on that here. As a mountain community, we aren't exactly high priority normally either. 

[Matthew70]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

We go deep into the ice box on the Euro with that snow cover. Some -10ish stuff showing up in Western areas. 

Let’s hope it’s not a crippling ice storm with those temps coming.  No warm up like the last major ice storm we had.  This could be very ugly. 

[Weatheriscool]

It looks like the region stays cold the majority of that next week. More rolling blackouts from TVA?

[Scottie16]

It looks like the region stays cold the majority of that next week. More rolling blackouts from TVA?

If the current forecast holds they won’t have to do any rolling blackouts with how many people will be without power below I-40


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[Golf757075]

Will be a great test for the AI products. If they are over inflating qpf, it may be time to disregard them more often

[Scottie16]

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[Scottie16]

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Hoping it’s more sleet than freezing rain Tellico


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[Golf757075]

3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

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Scottie, would this be a situation where you use kuchera instead of total snow accumulation since it's colder?

[Scottie16]

Scottie, would this be a situation where you use kuchera instead of total snow accumulation since it's colder?

Carver, John, Tellico or Rambler could be more helpful answering that question than I would be.


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[Scottie16]

Carver, John, Tellico or Rambler could be more helpful answering that question than I would be.


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Would*


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[Scottie16]

Models have been very inconsistent and uncertainty is high for the latter periods, but there is general agreement that a system will
bring more precipitation to the area sometime in the Friday/Saturday/Sunday time frame. Right now models suggest a mixed bag of precip types, with both rain and snow possible, but given how far out it still is as well as the poor model agreement and consistency, we will need to monitor and wait for more clarity on
the details as we get closer.

-NWS MORRISTOWN


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