Reb Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Looks like UKie is going to try to join the party maybe Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Reb said: Cutter Yeah, sent the whole thing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like UKie is going to try to join the party maybeDefinitely thought it was but it has a different agenda.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Choose your own adventure at 0z. Welcome to the show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so far Growing more interested in the Euro Op vs Euro AIFs fight...like the old veteran vs the up and coming young blue chip prospect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so farAdd GEFS to the Snowmegeddon party.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. Old days it would have made me not even stay up for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago I don't know why we can't have simple, nice snow events that cooperate any more. Looking back at 1996, it was spotted 5-6 days out and had winter storm watches posted 3 days out, with Winter Storm Warnings 24 hours out. That shows up as an analog on the packages today but we still have complete chaos. From a near miss on the ICON to that amped monster on the UKIE, and we're basically 4 to 5 days out with modeling upgrades that are comparable to a model t vs a Tesla. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. I wanted to think the same thing but the Euro ensembles have trended cooler the past few runs. Hopefully it continues, the UKIE simply won’t cave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Apparently Goofy kept doing what goofy does after I stopped watching...finally brought the final piece out to end here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: . Question is what does it do around 132 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Question is what does it do around 132 onFollows the UKIE like John said it would it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintryMixmaster Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Two 1030+ highs to the north of us and it just cuts right between them... seems strange that it's so much more amplified than previous runs, and the only model showing that, but somehow a cutter wouldn't surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Trends are not our friend. Cold rain or freezing rain. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Carbon copy of 18z almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looking at the temps on the AIFS, looks like a lot of ice for west/mid TN and East TN gets warm nosed with temps in the mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago The AI was just about a carbon copy of 18z and 12z. Massive ice storm Plateau and west with finally a little frozen reaching the mountains after a stubborn warm nose sits over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Two 1030+ highs to the north of us and it just cuts right between them... seems strange that it's so much more amplified than previous runs, and the only model showing that, but somehow a cutter wouldn't surprise meYeah I don’t see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Both AI systems have the HP weakening and sliding off to the east way before the non AI mods...a low will attack the western side of the Apps in that situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro not aligning with EIFS so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago I'm not sure about freezing rain vs sleet on the AI. 850s are warm, but 925s are subfreezing over a lot of the areas that are getting precip. Not sure how thick the sub-freezing layer is above 925, and I'm not sure how deep the subfreezimg layer needs to be to produce sleet vs freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro on board . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Yeah I don’t see . If you go to the next frame and then compare to non AI, you will see why it attacks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If you go to the next frame and then compare to non AI, you will see why it attacks that wayOh absolutely, I just don’t buy what the model is suggesting. Banana slipping that? It’s possible and if it does it’ll be the reason you stayed above brother.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintryMixmaster Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Both AI systems have the HP weakening and sliding off to the east way before the non AI mods...a low will attack the western side of the Apps in that situation So is the difference between the UKIE/Euro AI and GFS/CMC/ICON a timing issue? If the storm takes too long to get here, it amplifies and gives time for the eastern HP to move out, letting it attack the weakness in the banana high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now