January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Looks like UKie is going to try to join the party maybe

Cutter

 

 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Reb said:

Cutter

 

 

Yeah, sent the whole thing out

[Scottie16]

Looks like UKie is going to try to join the party maybe

Definitely thought it was but it has a different agenda.


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[Carvers Gap]

Choose your own adventure at 0z.  Welcome to the show!

[Carvers Gap]

ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so far

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so far

Growing more interested in the Euro Op vs Euro AIFs fight...like the old veteran vs the up and coming young blue chip prospect

[Scottie16]

ICON, GFS, CMC vs AIGFS, UKMET...so far

Add GEFS to the Snowmegeddon party.


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[John1122]

Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. 

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. 

Old days it would have made me not even stay up for the Euro

[John1122]

I don't know why we can't have simple, nice snow events that cooperate any more. Looking back at 1996, it was spotted 5-6 days out and had winter storm watches posted 3 days out, with Winter Storm Warnings 24 hours out. That shows up as an analog on the packages today but we still have complete chaos. From a near miss on the ICON to that amped monster on the UKIE, and we're basically 4 to 5 days out with modeling upgrades that are comparable to a model t vs a Tesla. 

[Scottie16]

Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way. 

I wanted to think the same thing but the Euro ensembles have trended cooler the past few runs. Hopefully it continues, the UKIE simply won’t cave.


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[TellicoWx]

Apparently Goofy kept doing what goofy does after I stopped watching...finally brought the final piece out to end here 

[Scottie16]

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[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

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Question is what does it do around 132 on

[Scottie16]

Question is what does it do around 132 on

Follows the UKIE like John said it would it seems.


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[WintryMixmaster]

Two 1030+ highs to the north of us and it just cuts right between them... seems strange that it's so much more amplified than previous runs, and the only model showing that, but somehow a cutter wouldn't surprise me

[Scottie16]

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[Matthew70]

Trends are not our friend.  Cold rain or freezing rain. Sigh 

[TellicoWx]

Carbon copy of 18z almost

[Wurbus]

Looking at the temps on the AIFS, looks like a lot of ice for west/mid TN and East TN gets warm nosed with temps in the mid-30s.

[John1122]

The AI was just about a carbon copy of 18z and 12z. 

Massive ice storm Plateau and west with finally a little frozen reaching the mountains after a stubborn warm nose sits over that way.  

[Scottie16]

Two 1030+ highs to the north of us and it just cuts right between them... seems strange that it's so much more amplified than previous runs, and the only model showing that, but somehow a cutter wouldn't surprise me

Yeah I don’t see


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[TellicoWx]

Both AI systems have the HP weakening and sliding off to the east way before the non AI mods...a low will attack the western side of the Apps in that situation

[Scottie16]

Euro not aligning with EIFS so far.


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[John1122]

I'm not sure about freezing rain vs sleet on the AI. 850s are warm, but 925s are subfreezing over a lot of the areas that are getting precip. Not sure how thick the sub-freezing layer is above 925, and I'm not sure how deep the subfreezimg layer needs to be to produce sleet vs freezing rain. 

[Scottie16]

Euro on board


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[TellicoWx]

8 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Yeah I don’t see


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If you go to the next frame and then compare to non AI, you will see why it attacks that way

[Scottie16]

If you go to the next frame and then compare to non AI, you will see why it attacks that way

Oh absolutely, I just don’t buy what the model is suggesting. Banana slipping that? It’s possible and if it does it’ll be the reason you stayed above brother.


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[Scottie16]

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[WintryMixmaster]

 

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Both AI systems have the HP weakening and sliding off to the east way before the non AI mods...a low will attack the western side of the Apps in that situation

So is the difference between the UKIE/Euro AI and GFS/CMC/ICON a timing issue? If the storm takes too long to get here, it amplifies and gives time for the eastern HP to move out, letting it attack the weakness in the banana high?