January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[*Flash*]

3 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

3K NAM appears to be headed towards a rain but timing works out and trys to salvage something.  here's what it shows at 00z 

Yeah, I’m rooting for this in hope to maybe chase on the plateau.

[Daniel Boone]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft.

Can't win for losing in Tn Valley. This one will nail Kentucky pretty good while the next will go South and East of us. 

[John1122]

The Rufus now has the Sunday system hitting East Tennessee. 

[Matthew70]

Well at least next week is looking wet.  Cold 45-50’s  rains incoming.  Hopefully the colder air can make it here.  Hopefully it’s not suppressing cold.  We wait & see if moves up in time. 

[Daniel Boone]

GFS showing similar to NAM 3k Friday Night/Sat Morning. 2-3" here by 12z Sat.

[Reb]

GFS vort still trending deeper west. Might be a good run

 

[Reb]

And for the surface 

[Scottie16]

That GFS run!


.

[*Flash*]

Good trends. Still rooting for more of a western adjustment. Should have a grasp of my travel plans within the next 24-36 hours. What a day of runs!

[Daniel Boone]

11 minutes ago, Reb said:

And for the surface 

Looks like a quick 1-3" in NETN that Run before quickly reforming or shifting to in north cental NC up through Central and Eastern VA. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

Good trends. Still rooting for more of a western adjustment. Should have a grasp of my travel plans within the next 24-36 hours. What a day of runs!

Yeah. Would be nice if that weak Low it pops in the NE Gulf develops further West and intensifies so it would run more Northward.

[John1122]

I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track. 

[John1122]

Canadian, while nothing for us, went from off the coast to precip well west into NC from 12z to 0z. 

[TellicoWx]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track. 

While I would love for the GFS Op to score the win..hard to believe anything it's spitting out when it's all alone vs all other models (even it's own AI)

[John1122]

The UKIE, which has been the furthest east, was probably 150-200 miles west vs 12z. 

[John1122]

The long range isn't exactly inspiring for winter lovers either, the GFSAI is a torch, the EuroAI has a few cold frontal passages but quickly rebounds to AN after each. At this point, I'm going to hope we get a February event, as January (unless the gfs pulls off a miracle coup with the nw trend) is looking lost. The odds of getting a truly wintery pattern with snow on the ground for a while like we've managed the last few years, seem to be fleeting. 

[John1122]

SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip.