January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7.

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

Yeah, I think that run is off its rocker.  There has been a trend over the past couple of deterministic suites to de-amplify d10-15, but ensembles are not biting yet.

The 12z GEM is very cold.  I do think the GFS is pretty good inside of d5.  It has been wack-a-mole after that.  

A quick glance of the MJO has it heading into phase 8 between Jan26-30th depending on your model of choice.  I would expect the eastern trough to go gangbusters around that time and into early Feb.  Again, huge grains of salt.  The MJO has not been well correlated to eastern NA weather so far this winter IMHO.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution:

Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example:

Starting location:

Complicated evolution:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

There is satellite imagery on it:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro looks like it will pull more moisture west to me. 

[GBOVolz]

I believe the Euro is digging


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro will try, but I suspect the kicker will keep it more positively tilted and flatter than the GFS. 

[tnweathernut]

I guess the deep southeast and coastal areas are the new place for regular snows..............   That's what it looks like at 500.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Bitterly cold run of the 12z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution:

Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example:

Starting location:

Complicated evolution:

 

 

Yeah, it probably is not getting sampled well if it is at the NP.  Once it arrives on the continent, we might see a jump one way or the other.  Need ground obs and plane obs.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

It's doing it's usual song and dance. It'll hit several solutions, probably some totally opposite of the one before knowing it, lol.

[Hillbilly]

3 hours ago, Vol4Life said:

To get it west a little more, do we need the energy to dig a little more?  Pretty big changes over the past model runs for GFS

Someone with far more insight than me can weigh in, but conceptually, if it stays weak the cold gets pushed east, if something stronger develops, the system continues shifting farther west.

[nrgjeff]

Well the Euro didn't cooperate. Ukie somewhat. Icon No. Should be good skiing in the mountains both TN and NC. I've lost interest in much else. I'll be back tomorrow though. 

[GBOVolz]

Someone with far more insight than me can weigh in, but conceptually, if it stays weak the cold gets pushed east, if something stronger develops, the system continues shifting farther west.

There’s a low pressure over the Great Lakes that suppressing our moisture. These seem to be there every time we get in a ok pattern


.

[*Flash*]

SouthernWx is taking James Spann to town over his Euro-AI post on social media last hour. 

[John1122]

The NAM is coming in firing to western areas of the forum.

[John1122]

The NAM laid down heavy snow over parts of the forum but it peters out as it works east. Oddly blotchy pattern with the snow that isn't terribly likely to happen but the general run was similar to the RGEM runs from yesterday.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Going to be interesting to see what the NAM pops out at the end of its run, it’s digging the shortwave toward the NW Gulf. 

[John1122]

3k NAM  is less patchy than the 12k and is a major event for many of us. Unfortunately misses the far west but nails the midstate. Heavy snow falling still on it at hr 60 when it ends.

[John1122]

The warm nose on the 3k runs up along the mountains all the way towards NE Tn on that run. Hopefully that doesn't happen but it seems to have been a thorn for several years now.

[John1122]

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Going to be interesting to see what the NAM pops out at the end of its run, it’s digging the shortwave toward the NW Gulf. 

It doesn’t go out far enough to give anyone a NAMing (not talking about the more mid range system John is) but it does pop a low in the west central gulf 

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The warm nose on the 3k runs up along the mountains all the way towards NE Tn on that run. Hopefully that doesn't happen but it seems to have been a thorn for several years now.

We hold gold medals up this way for downslopes and dryslots

 

[John1122]

The RUFUS has the same moisture feed as the NAM but is very warm, and it rains over the entire area.

[Carvers Gap]

Is Rufus RGEM?

[Carvers Gap]

Got a low parked over the Great Lakes…tearing up thermals.  Bet this is still a pretty cold system.  Might need that coastal.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is Rufus RGEM?

It's the model that is supposed to eventually replace the HRRR and NAM.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's the model that is supposed to eventually replace the HRRR and NAM.

12z RGEM was also def a bit warm…looked a bit over cooked. 

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z RGEM was also def a bit warm…looked a bit over cooked. 

18z is really warm as well, at this point, it wouldn't shock me if it warmed up and rained.

[John1122]

ICON is also a mostly rain event. Frustrating to say the least.