January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7.

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

Yeah, I think that run is off its rocker.  There has been a trend over the past couple of deterministic suites to de-amplify d10-15, but ensembles are not biting yet.

The 12z GEM is very cold.  I do think the GFS is pretty good inside of d5.  It has been wack-a-mole after that.  

A quick glance of the MJO has it heading into phase 8 between Jan26-30th depending on your model of choice.  I would expect the eastern trough to go gangbusters around that time and into early Feb.  Again, huge grains of salt.  The MJO has not been well correlated to eastern NA weather so far this winter IMHO.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution:

Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example:

Starting location:

Complicated evolution:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

There is satellite imagery on it:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro looks like it will pull more moisture west to me. 

[GBOVolz]

I believe the Euro is digging


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro will try, but I suspect the kicker will keep it more positively tilted and flatter than the GFS. 

[tnweathernut]

I guess the deep southeast and coastal areas are the new place for regular snows..............   That's what it looks like at 500.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Bitterly cold run of the 12z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution:

Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example:

Starting location:

Complicated evolution:

 

 

Yeah, it probably is not getting sampled well if it is at the NP.  Once it arrives on the continent, we might see a jump one way or the other.  Need ground obs and plane obs.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK 

 

It's doing it's usual song and dance. It'll hit several solutions, probably some totally opposite of the one before knowing it, lol.

[Hillbilly]

3 hours ago, Vol4Life said:

To get it west a little more, do we need the energy to dig a little more?  Pretty big changes over the past model runs for GFS

Someone with far more insight than me can weigh in, but conceptually, if it stays weak the cold gets pushed east, if something stronger develops, the system continues shifting farther west.

[nrgjeff]

Well the Euro didn't cooperate. Ukie somewhat. Icon No. Should be good skiing in the mountains both TN and NC. I've lost interest in much else. I'll be back tomorrow though. 

[GBOVolz]

Someone with far more insight than me can weigh in, but conceptually, if it stays weak the cold gets pushed east, if something stronger develops, the system continues shifting farther west.

There’s a low pressure over the Great Lakes that suppressing our moisture. These seem to be there every time we get in a ok pattern


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