January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

One more jog west and East Tennessee is firmly in the game. Put me in coach!

[Carvers Gap]

Paging @nrgjeff!  The 12z GFS.....you gotta like that, right?

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

One more jog west and East Tennessee is firmly in the game. Put me in coach!

Totally agree…and there’s still time for that to happen.  If we can get another 150 mile jog west, it would be amazing.  Need that low pressure to be inland rather than off the coast

[Carvers Gap]

Remember how we talked about the engine and caboose?  When modeling can't decide between the two, it tries to split the difference.  Most of the time, you will see these late trends if it finally "decides" to go w/ the caboose or second system.  Yeah, Reb.  Give me one more jog!!!!!

[Vol4Life]

Man that low pressure is bombing out over the NE.  969 low pressure!

[Bigbald]

I thought the ole Northwest jog got phased out of the GFS a couple years ago.

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Remember how we talked about the engine and caboose?  When modeling can't decide between the two, it tries to split the difference.  Most of the time, you will see these late trends if it finally "decides" to go w/ the caboose or second system.  Yeah, Reb.  Give me one more jog!!!!!

To get it west a little more, do we need the energy to dig a little more?  Pretty big changes over the past model runs for GFS

[Carvers Gap]

I think this is likely a legit system for the NE at the very least.  Remember, golf and I were discussing this several pages ago.  The 500 trough looked ripe.  

Bigbald, for the GFS...yes.  I think the NW jog occurs as modeling strengthens the storm sometimes as it gets closer.  In other words, it underestimates the storm, tightens it up, and it pulls NW over several runs.  The GFS has came well west during the past 24 hours.  We are about to run out of runway though before this locks in.  But w/ this being a "surprise" feature(Euro had that weird run a couple of days ago with this...might it have been right?) the track may not be locked quite yet.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

To get it west a little more, do we need the energy to dig a little more?  Pretty big changes over the past model runs for GFS

I think we need it stronger.

[GBOVolz]

I thought the ole Northwest jog got phased out of the GFS a couple years ago.

It did…. Except when you don’t want it to.


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[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ICON has this but is well east. The GFS is gonna have to have some more support, but it is well within range to score the coup.

[GBOVolz]

It seems like every year now right around MLK day we are dealing with snow


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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

It did…. Except when you don’t want it to.


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The ever lovin' truth w/ the GFS.  

[GBOVolz]

The 12z ICON has this but is well east. The GFS is gonna have to have some more support, but it is well within range to score the coup.

We need another big jog to the west because sometimes these systems will calibrate their self back east in the 11th hour


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[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

We need another big jog to the west because sometimes these systems will calibrate their self back east in the 11th hour


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Yes.  Jog west, calibrate east, jog slightly west again.  That is normally what I observe.  I don't know how much room this has to come west since it is so late.  There is not a lot of room.  I think really our best chance is that modeling is under estimating the storm, and it gets deeper w/ each run.  If it is a legit Nor'Easter, it may not have it deep enough yet.  For now, looks like a Carolina special...but that could change.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM is OTS w/ barely a skiff in NC.  We need to dig through that GFS run, and see if it is doing something weird.  That said, the 6z Euro has the GFS solution, but it is east of the 12z GFS track.

[Carvers Gap]

I strongly suspect this is an EC storm.  Unfortunately for all of us...may be just too far to the east.  We keep getting a dang low in the Lakes.  Haha.

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long.

Hopefully I'm wrong about this one. 

[GBOVolz]

At least we know there’s likely going to be a storm south and or east of us. That’s about all you can ask for in the middle of January and whatever happens, happens.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

We'll see what ye olden Euro has to say. CMC did trend a bit west from 6z. 

[GBOVolz]

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long.
Hopefully I'm wrong about this one. 

Other than mountain NW flow, I don’t believe anyone east of Asheville has seen a decent snow in five or six years


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[Vol4Life]

@Carvers Gap do you think there could be some changes in the models for Sunday after this front passes through today/this evening?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some support among the GEFS members:

[*Flash*]

Really REALLY rooting for a western adjustment. No weekend hope for my locale..but given the timing, I would love to take a plateau jaunt to a place that benefits from typical orographic lift. Monterey/Crossville...preferably no more east than that. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM at 171 looks impressive at 500 in regards to cold air delivery.  

[Carvers Gap]

I really like the 20th for a northern stream system for some reason.  Nice, deep trough and maybe the coldest air of the season so far.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

QPF probability trend on GEFS:

 

Questions to ask

1. what is the moisture source?  

that one has a pretty simple answer, return flow as the shortwave digs on the OP GFS:

 

2. What is the forcing? 

Shortwave dropping in further west to cause the return flow 

overrunning

isentropic upglide

strengthening jet:

 

I think it all depends on how the shortwave drops in and then moves, those things determines by upstream ridging and downstream confluence

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I agree with folks that say this is likely a coastal plain storm as of now *until* I see more consistency and/or other more reliable models showing it. Trends have been our friend since early this AM, but they can turn into enemies quick. 

 

Especially wit ha complicated/ fast flow slinging these shortwaves at us. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is a wild run...completely different than 6z.  Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7.  The GEM is steadier.  This may have to get settled by the ensembles.

@Holston_River_RamblerI was surprised to see some solutions over E TN on the GEFS.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

@Carvers Gap do you think there could be some changes in the models for Sunday after this front passes through today/this evening?

It is entirely possible that the Sunday system is just getting sampled better.   But...I bet the Euro is the likely solution.  The GFS has been on steroids this winter for some reason at times.  Let's see where this Euro run goes...I am gonna bet it is west of its 6z run but not by a lot.  If that storm actually cranks, it is gonna be frigid here.