January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[TellicoWx]

Looks like euro tried to step toward GFS...just a little too far north with the lee side 

[John1122]

Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though. 

[John1122]

Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS. 

[Matthew70]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. 

Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same. 

Yep this week will be a dud most likely.  GFS is a garbage model.

[John1122]

Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on. 

[John1122]

That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are. 

[Matthew70]

One thing that might be right.  We are in that window where the Euro loses storms.  Maybe this is one of those times. It’s there but not there if that makes sense.

[John1122]

24 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

One thing that might be right.  We are in that window where the Euro loses storms.  Maybe this is one of those times. It’s there but not there if that makes sense.

Its not so much that it loses it, it's that the low is further north than the GFS so the precip is too. It did move more to the south and west vs 12z with the slight step towards the GFS.

[John1122]

The EPS also improved vs 12z.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some of the snow showers dropping out of KY have Special weather Statements:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS has a likely flaw with the 17th system.  That error is causing the big runs with the slider.  It is trying to hook a Pacific tropical system into the front from 1000+ miles away.  There is a faint signature of that on the GEM and nothing on the Euro.  That front could work, but it would have to be a Gulf feed or Pineapple Express setup.   I don’t see the GFS PAC tropical feature (anomalous for this time of year anyway) on other modeling.   The GFS has really struggled this winter….almost unusable at times.

[GBOVolz]

Y’all know Mike Witcher right? (Assuming he’s not on here lol) I’m in a little discord group with him and some other weather folks. So I’ll be able to bring his thoughts here on the bigger events. The group is a little more severe weather but there’s some snow talk.


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[jaxjagman]

Just for fantasy purposes,its still fun to look at if you are a cold lover,i'm not that person but you can also see a big artic high nosing down towards the Upper Plains the end of the run on the GFS,if you look at the other charts

[Matthew70]

Threading the needle for snow usually does not work out.  Plus no sustained cold.  Jag was spot on.  From short sleeves to long sleeves & back to short sleeves.  Stinks but it’s the wx we’re dealt.  The earth’s wx is definitely changing & has changed. Definitely not towards winter lovers unfortunately.  Still plenty of time for snow.  

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Threading the needle for snow usually does not work out.  Plus no sustained cold.  Jag was spot on.  From short sleeves to long sleeves & back to short sleeves.  Stinks but it’s the wx we’re dealt.  The earth’s wx is definitely changing & has changed. Definitely not towards winter lovers unfortunately.  Still plenty of time for snow.  

It dont look  as brutal as it has been this time.The ensembles all of them seem to struggle to even get into the 40's,so maybe it wont be that bad.

[Carvers Gap]

Plenty of sustained cold.  Many will be below normal for next week.  We live in the subtropics….it wants to snow here for about 4 weeks a year.  Always important to remember.  Plenty still to track.  And it’s almost always thread the needle at this latitude.   When we get crazy cold, it usually goes dry.  We want to be right on the gradient for a chance at big snows.

[jaxjagman]

In general when you see all that mess into WP,you'd think its gonna warm up in our parts with the MJO signal relative strong and you also see where the MJO RMM'S do funky stuff into P6,past the mid month.MJO is  still moving even tho the RMM'S says it isnt,my thinking is after that mess clears,the RMMS will correct itself and show a fast moving signal until they catch up,just destructive interference from Rossby and Kelvin

[Carvers Gap]

This forum area has always had wild weather swings.   The blizzard of 93 was preceded by one of the worst severe weather events of my lifetime.  The 85 cold outbreak was preceded by strong December warmth…dig back through for the analog I posted a while back for that.  

Why the extremes?  Our weather is influenced by five bodies of water…Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf, Arctic, and the the GLs.  I mean really the IO does as well so make it six bodies of water.  

But our proximity to the Gulf allows wild swings between continental derived cold and warmth from a large, shallow body of ocean water.  It is why severe weather here is some of the worst on the planet in regards to tornadoes.  It is why we have TVA to control what used to be catastrophic flooding which was often preceded by drought.  

I think we have a fun second half of winter coming up.  Take what we get and enjoy it. 
 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Larry Cosgrove mentioned last night that the modeling is really struggling with the MJO.  He has resorted to simply looking at satellite imagery in the IO, MC, and western Pacific.  Why satellite?  Says modeling is changing every 12 hours with it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS, which I like once it is inside of rough 150 hours, is increasing the strength o the clipper ever so slightly.  Clippers often trend north at the last minute, and will sometimes get stronger as modeling will sometimes underestimate the strength of the vortex(especially the closer to February that we get).

[Carvers Gap]

I mean that is a petty good thump w/ storm #1 w/ 6-12" of snow over TRI - probably a good amount of that is just smoothing due to the mountains.  Overall, it looks like roughly 2-4" for many areas in middle and eastern areas of the forum w/ even north Georgia getting some snow.

[Carvers Gap]

Healthy looking second system on the GFS, BUT.....it is fooling around w/ that tropical PAC storm-ish feed again, and I think that is likely wrong.  It allowed the back of the trough to hang back, and it catches that erroneous(?) feature again.  I strongly encourage more support from other modeling before buying that scenario.  I hope it scores the coup, but that just doesn't look like reliable synoptics or climatology.  I would willing to buy that setup if someone could simply make a case for that being the Pineapple Express(aka atmospheric river hookup).

[Carvers Gap]

But holy moly does that turn into a big blizzard along the EC, and that looks a bit more plausible given the spacing.  Now, if we can get rid of the Pacific tropical feature, we could manage to get an inland runner???

[Scottie16]

Healthy looking second system on the GFS, BUT.....it is fooling around w/ that tropical PAC storm-ish feed again, and I think that is likely wrong.  It allowed the back of the trough to hang back, and it catches that erroneous(?) feature again.  I strongly encourage more support from other modeling before buying that scenario.  I hope it scores the coup, but that just doesn't look like reliable synoptics or climatology.  I would willing to buy that setup if someone could simply make a case for that being the Pineapple Express(aka atmospheric river hookup).

Have we saw similiar setups like that before? I’m running through notes and can’t find what I’m looking for


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[Scottie16]

I mean that is a petty good thump w/ storm #1 w/ 6-12" of snow over TRI - probably a good amount of that is just smoothing due to the mountains.  Overall, it looks like roughly 2-4" for many areas in middle and eastern areas of the forum w/ even north Georgia getting some snow.

Seems like the GFS is starting to struggle with it too. Although the low seems to cut through Kentucky and end up in virgina now.


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[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Have we saw similiar setups like that before? I’m running through notes and can’t find what I’m looking for


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I highly doubt there is precedent for Pacific tropical features (during mid January) feeding into a cold front over our area along the EC of North America.  Webber mentioned yesterday(finally remembered my source) that it was a pretty awful job by the GFS.  Maybe late fall that could happen?  No other model has that.  I think it is a pretty massive GFS error.  In fact, the 12z GEM provides no support for either the 15th or 17th (GFS solution) whatsoever.  I think the GFS has a pretty signifiant bias right now at over-amping everything at times.  However, it can sniff out weather systems like this, because of that bias.  For now though, I have the GFS as an outlier and at a level where it almost has to be tossed, but let's see if the Euro has something.

What is plausible is a cold front tapping the Gulf, and I won't rule that out with the 17th system.  Conversely, the GEM looks suspiciously anemic, and that would be a red flag for that model.  A strong cold front w/ short waves in tow...should have some dynamics.  The truth is probably somewhere in between the GEM and GFS at 12z.

[jaxjagman]

Purty active pattern upcoming,someone should get something out of this mess

[Carvers Gap]

FWIW, I do think the a coastal w/ the 17th front is plausible.  I think the cold front driven snow is plausible provided the GFS drop the crazy PAC storm feed.  So, I do think a front w/ a wave turning into a significant EC storm is very plausible.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Seems like the GFS is starting to struggle with it too. Although the low seems to cut through Kentucky and end up in virgina now.


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And great avatar BTW!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS does bump-up totals w/ system #1 on the 15th.  I have less of an issue w/ GFS synoptics w/ storm one.  Though for certain it still seems a bit too amped.  Again, the 12z GEM looks suspicious w/ so little precip resulting from a strong vortex.  Hopefully, the Euro can give us a bit more perspective with the understanding it is often under-modeled at this range as a bias.  

I would use the NBM for right now for storm one.