January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[TellicoWx]

Looks like euro tried to step toward GFS...just a little too far north with the lee side 

[John1122]

Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though. 

[John1122]

Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS. 

[Matthew70]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. 

Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same. 

Yep this week will be a dud most likely.  GFS is a garbage model.

[John1122]

Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on. 

[John1122]

That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are. 

[Matthew70]

One thing that might be right.  We are in that window where the Euro loses storms.  Maybe this is one of those times. It’s there but not there if that makes sense.

[John1122]

24 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

One thing that might be right.  We are in that window where the Euro loses storms.  Maybe this is one of those times. It’s there but not there if that makes sense.

Its not so much that it loses it, it's that the low is further north than the GFS so the precip is too. It did move more to the south and west vs 12z with the slight step towards the GFS.

[John1122]

The EPS also improved vs 12z.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some of the snow showers dropping out of KY have Special weather Statements:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS has a likely flaw with the 17th system.  That error is causing the big runs with the slider.  It is trying to hook a Pacific tropical system into the front from 1000+ miles away.  There is a faint signature of that on the GEM and nothing on the Euro.  That front could work, but it would have to be a Gulf feed or Pineapple Express setup.   I don’t see the GFS PAC tropical feature (anomalous for this time of year anyway) on other modeling.   The GFS has really struggled this winter….almost unusable at times.

[GBOVolz]

Y’all know Mike Witcher right? (Assuming he’s not on here lol) I’m in a little discord group with him and some other weather folks. So I’ll be able to bring his thoughts here on the bigger events. The group is a little more severe weather but there’s some snow talk.


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