TheClimateChanger Posted Friday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:39 PM Strong signal for warmth as we roll into the second week of March, showing up well on both the EPS and GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:27 PM 44 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Strong signal for warmth as we roll into the second week of March, showing up well on both the EPS and GEFS. Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 PM 51 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Torch But looks to be very rainy. I think we possibly get back into snow mode around the 12th or so as we come out of that warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Ensembles look mostly warm through the period, maybe a brief shot of cold in between (say a weekend). Can't say I'm disappointed. I'll be the deb here, but I'm over the nickel-and-dime events by this point. If it's going to snow anymore, it has to snow. This is about as wall-to-wall winter as we're likely to get, though, so I'm fine with an earlier spring. As it is, we look to finish with another below-average February snowfall - five in a row. Last time that happened was 1998 to 2002. Then February 2003 happened. Could we see a similar result next year in a Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Friday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:56 PM 16 minutes ago, jwilson said: Ensembles look mostly warm through the period, maybe a brief shot of cold in between (say a weekend). Can't say I'm disappointed. I'll be the deb here, but I'm over the nickel-and-dime events by this point. If it's going to snow anymore, it has to snow. This is about as wall-to-wall winter as we're likely to get, though, so I'm fine with an earlier spring. As it is, we look to finish with another below-average February snowfall - five in a row. Last time that happened was 1998 to 2002. Then February 2003 happened. Could we see a similar result next year in a Nino? I don't think there would be too many who disagree with you. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Friday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:04 PM 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Torch Ill take it. Best time to torch is early march / april imho. That's basically 60s and 70s. Imagine that map in July... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Friday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:06 PM 7 minutes ago, colonel717 said: I don't think there would be too many who disagree with you. Go big or go home. Yeah. Im in that boat, Ill take nickel and dimers all winter, but now I want heavy snow or Ill pass. I mean I guess if we got 2 inches in one hour I could live with that. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Friday at 06:36 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:36 PM I’ll take the warmth since this last threat fizzled. Maybe we can pull one more decent one together. Either way, I think we will still scratch our way to 50”. Can’t complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Friday at 06:36 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:36 PM 30 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah. Im in that boat, Ill take nickel and dimers all winter, but now I want heavy snow or Ill pass. I mean I guess if we got 2 inches in one hour I could live with that. Lol Agree - gimme good rates anytime any place 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Id venture to guess if this plays out that we will be stuck with a warm up and then winter weather returning unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Saturday at 01:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:15 AM Judah Cohen blog on PV stretch https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html#PLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Both the GFS and AIEuro like 12-15th to bring winter back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM 8 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Both the GFS and AIEuro like 12-15th to bring winter back. After today idk if I want it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted Saturday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:40 PM This popped up in my Facebook memories from 2014. The storm that never happened. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:08 PM 2 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: This popped up in my Facebook memories from 2014. The storm that never happened. Lol What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted Saturday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:12 PM What happened?I think we ended up with a half inch of slop. Lol But it was getting built up leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:41 PM 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: What happened? I think we ended up with a half inch of slop. Lol But it was getting built up leading up to it. So bored at work so went back to the archives. Looks like models were crushing us 3 days out and even 2 days out. We were all excited run to run to see things like this Eventually it started to get shunted south and weaker. Models started fringing the area pretty hard. Up until game time the models shifted south and areas in WV were the big winner with 6-10 inches. We barely even got advisory level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM Well mid month guidance has shown a return of winter fwiw https://x.com/i/status/2028181023901553072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Not ready to buy into an idea of sustained winter return just yet. We might get intermittent cold shots, but on the ensembles it still looks quite brief, and even the long-range GFS/Euro have tempered the cold look for next weekend. A couple days of high 30s spread apart. EPS and GEPS are generally warmer outside the northern plains. GEFS shows a more matriculating cold into the east, but that's at the very end of the run, so the potential length is unknown. +AO and +NAO look persistent. -PNA, as well. MJO into Phase 5 is what I'd call "tempered" or neutral in March, but Phase 6 is straight warm. Magnitude dependent. Seems like a more balanced or oscillating pattern - no full torch or deep winter. Maybe later in the month things move definitively, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 2m May in March followed by January in March. As I posted a week ago, in this pattern. Beware the ides of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago https://x.com/i/status/2028501421813911671 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 8m Enjoy the next week of Spring because the "Polar Vortex" is not done cooking for this extended Winter. Temperatures will soar in the 70s and 80s for > 100 million Americans, but then return to freezing ~10-days. Weather Update ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVLINC64 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 8m Euro AI with an Ides of March snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, EVLINC64 said: The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 8m Euro AI with an Ides of March snowstorm Boy, if this is the horn he’s been tooting to drum up as evidence for his prediction, it comes out more as a peep than a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Gordo74 said: Boy, if this is the horn he’s been tooting to drum up as evidence for his prediction, it comes out more as a peep than a bang. I told some of you he does this. On X he posts about the cold coming. On his site he has a different tune of course since he could lose his business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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